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In general the aim of this study is to investigate short-run relationships among macroeconomy, international trade and agriculture in Indonesia. Under such circumstances, the specific goals of this research is to analyze which economic blocks that have most affected by instability, as well as producing instability in the economy. We apply the Vector Error Correction Model on monthly series data from 1993:01 to 2002:12. The main result of this study shows as follow: 1) that the asset financial and the commodity demand blocks the most producing instability in the economy. On the other hand, the export block producing the least instability to the economy. The finding suggest that government should concentrate attention on asset financial and the commodity demand blocks in stabilizing the economy, as they are major sources of instability of the economy. 2) To stabilize the commodity demand, it is also necessary to stabilize the financial market, as the assets demand block is the most contributor of the instability in the commodity demand block. In other words, money demand is the main source of instability. Because money supply is determined by government, the disequlibrium error measure the excess supply of money in the market. This suggest that monetary policy that reduces the disequlibrium error can help stabilize the economy.

AbstractThis research examines the causality between energy consumption and economic growth in the Philippines, and determines their long‐run relationship by including labour force and gross fixed capital formation. Results show that the variables were found to be stationary at first difference and that cointegration existed among the variables, suggesting causality in at least one direction. They also show that GDP is dependent on energy consumption, indicating that the growth hypothesis applies in the Philippines. Moving from non‐renewable to renewable energy without securing the supply of energy can possibly limit economic growth. This inference is crucial in policy development, particularly when it comes to energy conservation and switching to renewable energy sources. Considering that the Philippines remains a developing country and needs to produce energy at least cost, policy‐makers must ensure the supply of energy before deciding to switch to renewable energy and must also consider the high cost of generating renewable energy.

The specific goals of this research are: Firstly, in the long run perspective, the goal is toanalyze impact of policy that inflating agriculture price to growth, employment, andinvestment in agriculture sector. Secondly, in the short run perspective, the goals are: (1) to analyze which economic blocks that have most producing instability to agriculture sector, (2) to analyze behaviour of inflation in agriculture sector and causality relationship both among output price and input prices and among input prices.Quantitative methods that are used in this study are Vector Error Correction Model,Johansen Cointegration Test, and Granger Causality Test. Data used in this research fromseveral sources such as Bank Indonesia, BPS Statistic, International Financial Statistic andCEIC data Company Limited, series data from first mountly of 1993 (1993:01) up to thelast mountly of 2002 (2002:12).In the agriculture sector, production (output) and capital are responsive to change inthe output price. This mean that inflating the output price effectively help generate outputand new investment in this sector. Nevertheless because shock in price can be source ofinstability to agriculture sector, so government should becarefully apply policies that caninflating the price in agriculture. To solve unemployment problem in agriculture sector,government should apply cost strategy such as subsidy policy of input price.Keywords: Instabilitas, Pergerakan Harga, Employment, Investasi, Sektor Pertanian,Vector Error Correction Model, Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test

The specific goals of this study were:Firstly, in the long run perspective, the goal is to analyze impact of policythat inflate agriculture price to growth, employment, and investment inagriculture sector. Secondly, in the short run perspective, the goals are: (1)to analyze which economic blocks that have most producing instability toagriculture sector, (2) to analyze behaviour af inflation in agriculture sectorand causality relationship both among output price and input prices and amonginput prices. Quantitative methods used ini this studywere Vector Error Correction Model, Johansen Cointegration Test, and GrangerCausality Test. Data used in this study come from several sources such as BankIndonesia, BPS Statistic, International Financial Statistic and CEIC dataCompany Limited, series data from first monthly of 1993 (1993:01) up to thelast monthly of 2002 (2002:12). In the agriculture sector, production(output) and capital are responsive to change in the output price. This meanthat inflating the output price effectively help generate output and newinvestment in this sector. Nevertheless because shock in price can be source ofinstability to agriculture sector, so government should be carefully applypolicies that can inflating the price in agriculture. To solve unemploymentproblem in agriculture sector, government should apply cost strategy such assubsidy policy of input price.

This study aims to analyze the relationship between macroeconomic variables in Indonesia, namely GDP with money supply, exchange rate of rupiah to US Dollar, exports, imports and interest rates. The background problem is to analyze the best method to influence government targets or policies on economic growth by studying the relationship of macroeconomic variables. Previous studies analyzing the relationship between macroeconomic variables in Indonesia have used multiple linear regression analysis. Using VECM analysis we can find out the short-term and long-term effects on the relationship between macroeconomic variables in Indonesia. The analysis used in this study is the Vector Error Correction Model with Maximum Likelihood estimation. Based on the result, the cointegration test found that there is a long-term relationship. Based on the VECM model (3), in the short term there is a relationship between macroeconomic variables and in the long run there is a long-term causality relationship in the GDP and export models. It is expected that the Government and the Central Bank will work together cooperatively in making policies to keep control of the money supply, exchange rate of rupiah to US Dollar and interest rates to enable to stimulate the economy.