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AbstractIn this paper I relate the risk premia in the stock and bond markets to the conditional volatility of returns and time‐varying reward‐to‐volatility variables. I find that the relation between the expected returns on the stocks and bonds and the volatility of returns is time varying. I provide an approach for evaluating the relative importance of the time‐varying volatility of returns and reward‐to‐volatility variables to explain the predictability of risk premia for stock and bond returns. I show that changing reward‐to‐volatility variables explain more predictable variation in the risk premia for stocks and bonds than changing volatility of returns.

AbstractWe assess the relationship between regime‐dependent volatility in S&P 500, economic policy uncertainty, the S&P 500 bull and bear sentiment spread (bb_sp), as well as the Chicago Board Options Exchange's VIX over the period 2000–2018. Our findings from two‐covariate GARCH–MIDAS (GM) methodology, regime switching Markov Chain, and quantile regressions suggest that the association of realized volatility and sentiment varies across high‐ and low‐volatility regimes and depends on investors' sensitivity toward incidents of market uncertainties under these regimes. The findings suggest that these indicators may not be useful in volatility forecasting, especially under high‐volatility regimes.

The study of electoral stability or volatility in Latin America calls attention to profound differences between most Latin American party systems, which are quite volatile, and West European party systems, which remain comparatively stable notwithstanding a trend toward greater volatility in recent decades. The examination of Latin American party systems poses interesting questions about why they differ so markedly from West European systems along this important dimension and what the consequences are for democracy. This paper focuses on volatility in one country, Brazil, in order to examine these issues. I make four arguments: that the Brazilian party system was moderately volatile during Brazil's first democracy (1946-64); that the party system has been highly volatile since 1982; that Brazil's volatility is much higher than that in the advanced industrial democracies; and finally, that the high volatility of the post-1985 period was caused by a combination of structural and institutional factors inimical to strong ties between citizens, political elites and parties, and further boosted by the dismal economic results of 1987-94.

Examines electoral volatility in Brazil, in a comparison of the Latin American & West European party systems. It is argued that (1) the Brazilian party system was moderately volatile during Brazil's first democracy (1946-1964); (2) the party system has been highly volatile since 1982; (3) Brazil's volatility is much higher than that in the advanced industrial democracies; & (4) the high volatility of the post-1985 period was caused by a combination of structural & institutional factors inimical to strong ties between citizens, political elites, & parties, & further boosted by the dismal economic results of 1987-1994. 7 Tables, 35 References. Adapted from the source document.