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Chile and Bolivia have been intertwined in a complex relationship of hostility and cooperation for over a century. Since the Bolivian defeat in the War of the Pacific and the Treaty of Peace and Friendship of 1904, issues of resource sharing and Bolivia's sovereign access to sea on the Pacific side have altered the dynamics of such a relationship. Indeed, they appear to be the major stumbling blocs to attempts at normalisation of relations between the two Andean neighbours. In the recent years, Chile–Bolivia relations have been strained over the issue of gas. Bolivia's political volatility over gas and Chile's refusal to discuss the issue of access to the sea were viewed as being part of the same quagmire of relations. However, despite disparities in development between the two countries, globalisation has altered the context of mutual engagement. Against this backdrop, the article specifically looks at one such contemporary issue of bilateral contestation, that is, the gas issue. The article will examine its geo-economic significance in the larger context of regional cooperation and energy security. It intends to probe the plausibility of the argument that the gas issue has the promise and potential to lighten the sedimented antagonism between the two.

The annual general meeting (AGM) constitutes the most important corporate event. Nevertheless, its role as an efficient instrument for corporate governance has recently come under increasing scrutiny, and numerous proposals for reform have emerged as a result. The purpose of this paper is to assess the release of value-relevant information during the AGM by analysing its impact on returns, returns volatility, and trading volumes in a sample of common- and civil-law countries. In one of the most influential articles in the field of corporate governance, La Porta et al. (J Polit Econ 106:1113–1155, 1998) examine the relationship between legal systems and shareholder protection. Given the importance of a country's legal tradition regarding not only shareholders' rights but also the role they play in the company, we cannot assume on a prior basis that results obtained in countries in which the legal tradition is based on the common law, like the US and the UK, can be directly extrapolated to countries with different legal traditions. Our results emphasise the role of national idiosyncratic characteristics in the relevance of the AGM, although only among civil-law countries. Common-law countries, on the other hand, would show a more similar behaviour.

The public choice model developed in this paper explains how increased external intervention and monitoring may lead to lessening of the intrinsic motivation within transitional economies to pursue reforms as prescribed by the Washington Consensus. This may lead to the slowdown of economic and institutional reforms sometimes followed by a lack of support for reform in popular votes at election time. Conditions under which this situation may occur are identified. The model is empirically tested for the period 1990-2001, encompassing more than fifteen East European countries. Results of the analysis suggest that the impact of external pressure expressed as the amount of U.S. loans on voting outcomes in transitional countries is significant. Consistent with prior expectations, a new class of private landowners and farmers support further privatization and market orientation and consequently vote for Western-oriented parties. Likewise, a new system of market based economies brings along more volatility and uncertainty creating an income based population segmentation and inequality. Higher fertility rates which are typically associated with lower income levels lead to fewer votes going to reformist, pro-market parties. Hence, foreign investors will clearly have to target the more affluent segment of populations in transitional economies for more support.

Much of the writings on the Global South in recent years have focused on the role that some of the emerging economies within the developing world might play in the unfolding global scenario. It is asserted that the rise of a group of middle-level players, given their economic and political profile in global affairs, may be critical in shaping future global outcomes. Such an influence may come at a time when the power of the established powers is seen in relative decline, particularly given the volatility of the global political economy in recent years. The article tries to revisit this assumption from a South Asian perspective and tries to explore the fundamentals of the Global South in terms of its ability to provide alternatives. Taking South Asia as a test case, the article argues that the term 'South' itself as a homogeneous entity is problematic from the point of view of characterisation as well as actualisation of the potential alternatives. While this does not rule out coalition building and collective action between countries sharing common interests and objectives, such coalition building may be more diffused and episodic rather than have the potential to provide 'alternative orders'.

We analyze the unique intervention strategy of the BCB using DNDFs (Domestic-Non-Deliverable Forwards): currency forwards that settle in domestic currency. We show the mechanisms through which DNDFs provide efficient hedging instruments for economic agents in times of reduced capital inflows and FX volatility, and how the use of DNDFs provide incentives for commercial banks to bring dollar to Brazil and so help finance the current account deficit. We discuss the limits to this strategy, which will work insofar as economic agents believe they can go from DNDFs to spot USD, i.e., that convertibility risk is negligible. We also have described how the strategy creates increasing positions within the commercial banking system (basis and roll over risks), generating possible threats to financial stability. The gain of not having to sell down hard currency reserves in the present strategy should be weighed against these risks. We conclude that the BCB's strategy does provide an alternative intervention strategy, which is made possible only due to specific features of the Brazilian financial markets and its legislation. It is not clear that other emerging markets would profit from adopting such intervention strategy in FX markets

Das Kommunikationsverhalten der EZB wird verschiedentlich kritisiert. Zwei Instrumente, 'mehr Transparenz' und 'Forward Guidance', stehen dabei im Mittelpunkt. Die Veröffentlichung von Protokollen der EZB-Ratssitzungen wird immer wieder angemahnt, und die EZB gibt mittlerweile eine Vorausschau auf die langfristig geplante Zinsentwicklung. Vor der Krise lag die EZB im Transparenz-Ranking weit vorn, die Bekämpfung der Krise hat allerdings eine größere Geheimhaltung erforderlich gemacht. Tatsächlich wird die Geldpolitik der EZB durch die neuen Kommunikationsinstrumente berechenbarer und kann entsprechend leichter zur Rechenschaft gezogen werden. ; The author delivers details on whether and how the effectiveness of the ECB's policies can be improved through more transparency and 'forward guidance'. Is publishing the minutes of Council meetings really a good idea? How should we assess the publication of the details of who has voted (and in what way) in the meetings? Is the ECB plagued by deficiencies in transparency, with an eye on the bank's steadily growing responsibilities? Should the ECB stick to the instrument of 'forward guidance' even beyond the crisis period? How predictable and assessable can and must monetary policy be? Can central banks endowed with too much guidance become a source of volatility? The ECB will adopt banking surveillance in the euro area: do particular transparency and accountability obligations result from this? And if yes, how can they be fulfilled? Finally, the author assesses the limits of the transparency and communication of central banks.

The goal of this study was to increase the awareness of the description and assessments of rice acreage response and to offer mechanisms for agricultural policy scrutiny. The ordinary least square (OLS) technique was utilized to determine the coefficients of acreage response models for the rice varieties. The magnitudes of the coefficients (λ) of both the ROK lagged and NERICA lagged acreages were found positive and highly significant, which indicates that farmers' adjustment rate was very low. Regarding lagged actual price for both the ROK and NERICE rice varieties, the short-run price elasticitieswere lower than long-run, which is suggesting a long term adjustment of the acreage under the crop. However, the apparent recommendations for policy transformation are to open farm gate prices and to decrease government's involvement in agricultural sector especially in the acquisition of agricultural inputs. Impending research have to be centered on how this might be better realized. Necessary conditions should be made available to the private sector by means of minimizing price volatility. In accordance with structural reforms, it is necessary to convey output prices to farmers with minimum distortion. There is need to eradicate price subsidies and control, which generate distortion in the market in addition to huge financial costs.

Associative issue ownership refers to one of the prerequisites for representative democracy—public awareness of the issue priorities of competing political parties. This article addresses the question of how the instability of associative issue ownership at the micro level of individual voters, which could be due in part to election news and political discussion, adds up to the relative stability of associative issue ownership at the macro level. The data come from a panel survey and a content analysis of newspapers and television news bulletins in the 2010 Dutch Parliamentary Election Campaign. Cross-nested multilevel logistic regression models were applied to estimate the impact of political news and political discussion on different respondents for different parties and issues. The findings show how contagion, by traditional issue ownership associations, explains the relative stability at the macro level in spite of volatility at the micro level. Campaign news and political discussion increase the likelihood of contagion by traditional issue priorities of political parties, while also evoking change due to their convergence on the issues of the campaign, from which the parties that own these issues take advantage, among others the VVD and the PVV in the 2010 campaign.

This paper offers a rethinking of the global coffee crisis from 1998 to 2002. In seeking to account for the crisis, most official international institutions and non-governmental organisations have focused on the dynamics of the coffee market, its volatility and unpredictability, in the wake of the decline of the International Coffee Agreements in 1989. The result has been a dominant consensus around the 'market' as the cause of underdevelopment and its potential solution, with the 'state' receding ever further into the background. As an alternative to this consensus, this paper argues that the state and the market are inseparable and, more specifically, that coffee statecraft, both good and bad, has been and continues to be central to the everyday operations of the coffee industry. Drawing specifically on the role of the Vietnamese state, it argues that coffee statecraft played a key role in the crisis -- typically portrayed as primarily market-driven -- and proposes greater attention be paid to the geopolitical actions of southern states, the role of the state during times when it seems most benign or invisible, and the centrality of coffee statecraft in steering development outcomes. Adapted from the source document.

Although the 1997 handover of Hong Kong from the United Kingdom to China was a major political transformation, its impact on new business formation has not been fully scrutinized. Theory suggests contradictory forces may operate before, during, and after such a transformation: either a decline due to uncertainty or an increase due to opportunities created. To determine which force dominated, we first decomposed the analysis by the size of major affected social groups, then analyzed the expected impact. This led us to predict an aggregate depression of business formation, although this effect likely showed great variation and attenuated over time. Our empirical assessment relied on detailed monthly records of business registrations from 1975 to 2013, using GARCH time series modeling to analyze total registrations as well as the proportions for local and non-local businesses. Controlling for macro socioeconomic conditions, we find the registration rate dropped significantly throughout the post-handover era, implying a dominance of uncertainty. Further, new registrations displayed higher volatility following the 1984 announcement of the handover, reflecting shifting public sentiment in the interim about Hong Kong's economic prospects. We also find a post-handover preference for forming non-local firms with higher asset mobility; this preference diminishes with time.

The financial crisis in Europe has resulted in a new assessment of monetary and financial integration both in Europe and in Asia. Before the current crisis, regional integration in monetary and fiscal affairs including mechanisms to stabilize exchange rates enjoyed a lot of academic and political support. The crisis served as a reminder of the risks associated with monetary and financial integration and has resulted in a much more cautious appraisal. But despite the crisis, monetary and financial integration continues to be attractive. In particular, the facilitation of intra-regional trade through stable exchange rates and the potential development of joint lines of defense against financial volatility, e.g. a regional liquidity facility, are potential benefits of monetary and financial integration. However, the crisis in Europe has exposed a number of weaknesses in the approach taken in the eurozone. In Europe, there was an unresolved tension between the so-called no-bailout clause and the absence of an exit mechanism. In addition, participating economies that suffered from a high inflow of foreign capital, i.e. Ireland and Spain, were not able to (temporarily) restrict capital inflows, but had to bear the consequences. Thus, after the crisis in Europe the concept of monetary regionalism needed to be modified, but did not have to be discarded.

На основі інституціональної парадигми побудовано концепцію державного регулювання взаємовідносин суб'єктів електроенергетичного ринку, яка базується на впровадженні аргументованої системи принципів та заходів, орієнтованих на підвищення ефективності використання інструментів державного регулювання, що дає можливість продукувати якісні та своєчасні рішення і забезпечує реалізацію адекватної моделі розвитку взаємовідносин суб'єктів електроенергетичного ринку в умовах невизначеності та мінливості зовнішнього та внутрішнього середовища. Сформовано концептуальну модель процесу дослідження державного регулювання взаємовідносин суб'єктів електроенергетичного ринку, що сприятиме формуванню логіки та науковій обґрунтованості підходів у вивченні засад державного регулювання. ; The concept of state regulation of mutual entities electricity market, which is based on the introduction of a reasoned system of principles and measures aimed at improving the efficiency of state regulation of the use of tools on the basis of the institutional paradigm was built that allows you take high-quality and timely decisions and ensures the implementation of an adequate model of the development of relations of objects subjects electricity market uncertainty and volatility of external and internal environment. The conceptual model of the research subjects of state regulation of the electricity market relationships was formed that will contribute to theformation of logic and the scientific validity of approaches to learning the basics of government regulation.

ABSTRACTAcross South Asia and beyond, the politics of belonging continue to breed alarming volatility and violence. The embodied, affective dimensions of these politics remain an imminent concern. In this article, I question how anxiety informs these reckonings of who belongs and who does not. Capable of galvanizing bodies and the greater body politic, anxieties over national belonging remain a powerful, but less understood, political force. In Darjeeling, India, anxieties over belonging—what I term "anxious belongings"—have fueled a particularly mercurial subnationalist politics, involving recurrent agitations for a separate state of Gorkhaland. Situated amid these interplays of anxiety, politics, and belonging, I identify anxious belonging as a collectively embodied phenomenon—at once historical, social, and pregnant with political possibility. As I show, these anxieties are deeply rooted in body and time. Today, they remain as unsettling as they are formative of a people and their politics. Thinking anthropologically about the origins and sociopolitical life of anxiety in Darjeeling, with this article I signal new ways of understanding—and perhaps anticipating—the volatilities that attend the politics of belonging worldwide. Anxious belonging accordingly comes into view as a dimension of and potential for markedly agitated forms of life and politics.

While decisionmakers warn about the cyber threat constantly, there is little systematic analysis of the issue from an international security studies perspective. Some scholars presume that the related technology's scientific complexity and methodological issues prohibit orderly investigation; only a minimum degree of technical acuity is needed, however, revealing the scope of maneuver in the cyber domain. Other skeptics argue that the cyber peril is overblown, contending that cyber weapons have no intrinsic capacity for violence and do not alter the nature or means of war. This view misses the essence of the danger and conceals its true significance: the new capability is expanding the range of possible harm and outcomes between the concepts of war and peace—with important implications for national and international security. The cyber domain, moreover, features enormous defense complications and dangers to strategic stability: offense dominance, attribution difficulties, technological volatility, poor strategic depth, escalatory ambiguity, and proliferation to nontraditional and subversive actors. But even if the cyber danger is overstated, the issue merits serious scholarly attention. Whatever the current cyber revolution signifies, it is detrimental to the intellectual progress and policy relevance of the field to continue to avoid its central questions.

AbstractThis article describes agendas as "packages" of topics of varying salience, set by the Russian Internet users on Russia's leading blog platform LiveJournal. The research involved modeling LiveJournal's topic structure, viewed as an important component of what is termed here self‐generated public opinion. Topic modeling was performed automatically with the LDA algorithm, and complemented with hand labeling of topics. Data were collected by software created by the authors to generate a relational database storing all posts by the top 2,000 LiveJournal users from three one‐month periods: two during the Russian parliamentary and presidential elections 2011–2012, and one control period. We find that LiveJournal top users share their attention evenly between "social/political" and "private/recreational" issues, the proportion being very stable. However, the substitution of diverse public affairs issues by the topics related to national street protests in the politicized periods compared to the control period was found both automatically and manually. The group of topics centered around social issues demonstrates the biggest volatility in terms of its composition and may serve as the foundation for monitoring self‐generated public opinion by further application of sentiment/opinion mining methods to these topics.