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The value of voter behavior surveys lies in the possibility of following the changes of the voters' preferences. In this type of survey, errors are found that are due to specific problems of sample composition. The problem is that one cannot weigh the sample with respect to the variable 'past voting behavior'. Rs answers to the question: "Which party did you vote for in the last election?" cannot be accepted at face value. NIPO includes that question in its weekly survey. These surveys are studied to discover how to protect against mistakes arising from a nonrepresentative sample in terms of past voting behavior. The method involves a comparison between actual electoral returns & voters' statements regarding past voting behavior as well as a weighing of the sample based on the results of the weekly survey from the last sixteen weeks. In Comment, J. W. Foppen (Erasmus U, Rotterdam Netherlands) objects that there are serious weaknesses regarding the NIPO surveys which de Hond uses as his bases. Moreover, de Hond's own work based on these surveys suffers from statistical blunders & computational errors. In Remarks, de Hond answers that the above comments either are not applicable to his own work or else can be directed at all survey research work. They are also based on misunderstandings & an unsympathetic reading. 7 Tables. A. Orianne.

THE ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN VOTING BEHAVIOR IS OFTEN BASED UPON RECALL DATA. THE NOTE OF RELIABILITY OF THIS TYPE OF DATA IS QUESTIONED. RECALL DATA UNDERESTIMATE THE NUMBER OF CHANGES IN PARTY CHOICE. NO EVIDENCE HAS BEEN FOUND THAT THE USE OF RECALL DATA HAS ANY CONSEQUENCES FOR THE STUDY OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE STABILITY OF PARTY CHOICE & SUCH VARIABLES AS POLITICAL INTEREST, POLITICAL KNOWLEDGE, & EDUCATION. THE ANALYSIS OF THE RELIABILITY OF QUESTIONS ON TURN-OUT IS NOT CONCLUSIVE. THERE ARE VERY STRONG INDICATIONS THAT IN EACH ELECTION STUDY NONVOTERS GIVE LESS RELIABLE ANSWERS THAN VOTERS. THIS UNRELIABILITY IS ESPECIALLY HIGH WHEN RECALL DATA ARE USED. 11 TABLES. HA.

The question is explored whether municipal elections can be compared to nat'l parliamentary elections, & shifts in party-choice in Belgium in the municipal elections of 1964 & the parliamentary elections of 1965 are compared. The methodology of this study is described. Shifts of the electoral bodies in the Flemish, the Walloon & the Brussels cantons (counties) were controlled individually. These shifts were then specified according to the canton's degree of Ur'ization. It appeared that some notable party-shifts had been realized during the short period between the municipal elections of 1964 & the legislative elections of 1965. In general, a certain polarization took place, due to a centrifugal vote shift to the left. The direction of vote shifts in the municipal elections of 1964 was affirmed at the legislative elections of 1965, & was accentuated from some parties, eg, the CVP & the PVV. The size & pattern of these shifts was not the same everywhere; it differed according to linguistic region & degree of Ur'ization. The level of oscillations grew higher as the degree of Ur'ization decreased. The largest shifts took place in the Walloon cantons. The lowest oscillations were noted in the Flemish & Brussels cantons; ie, the voting behavior of the big agglomerations during the municipal elections of 1964 were the closest to the nat'l electoral pattern. It is noted that the limitations of the study do not allow generalization of conclusions. The short period between the 2 elections compared was itself an exceptional situation which may have influenced the results. 7 Tables. Modified HA.

'Polarization' has become a catchword in Dutch politics, denoting the emphasis on conflicting rather than mutual interests. It is assumed that the efforts made to 'polarize' the voter population are aimed at reducing the large reservoir of middle-of-the-roaders. In its weekly opinion survey, the Netherlands Institute of Public Opinion (NIPO) consistently finds about 30% of the Rs choosing the center of a left/right semantic differential scale with almost an equal number of Rs going to right & left positions. The almost Gaussian overall distribution is shown to be highly correlated with party choice & voting behavior. The frequency distributions along the left/right Osgood scale are highly skewed inside each separate political preference group. The results of a new additional question are reported. The question reads: "If you were not allowed or could not choose this position would you then go for the one adjoining to the right or to the left?" A very large proportion of Rs move over to the left or right even beyond the extremes of the seven-point scale, effectively extending it to a nine-point scale. The popular center position is then reduced to about 12%. Even more interesting are larger variations over time that are shown for an interesting period extending from late Sept to the end of Nov 1977, during which efforts to form a new socialist-dominated government failed. The extended scale is shown to be a more sensitive instrument than the seven-point semantic differential alone. 6 Tables. Modified HA.

Data are presented on 3 groups of factors in the pol'al recruitment of Dutch members of Parliament sitting in the Spr of 1968: (a) pol'al orientation & activity of fathers & other members of the representative's fam; (b) the development of soc & pol'al interests during the member's younger yrs; & (c) the cursus honorum through which members moved before nomination to Parliament. Within each of these groups the following tables are presented: (1) Fam milieu: degree of interest & pol'al activity of fathers & mothers of members; fam relationship between soc stratification & pol'al activity of father & other fam relations; degree of pol'al heredity in pol'al choice; the relation between pol'al identification & pol'al activity in parental circles & crossing of traditional party lines by members; diff's between the parties in pol'al activity of members' fam's. (2) Activities during youth: province & type of community in which members grew up; members' assessments of factors which influenced their pol'al choice; activity in various types of youth assoc's; extent of membership in certain traditional student fraternities & other student assoc's; party vote at first election in which member participated; age at which they began to show interest in pol'al office. (3) Cursus Honorum: membership of party executives at central & local level; membership of lower representative bodies; experience in other pol'al roles; factors in nomination; assessment of importance of certain desirable qualities in a member of Parliament. Certain diff's between Upper & Lower House, & between the major Dutch parties are summarized. These diff's can be partly attributed to diff's in the instit'al arrangement of the 2 Houses (eg, diff's in size, in nomination & election procedures, in demand on members' time, in party composition), & partly to historical & org'al diff's between the Dutch parties. IPSA.