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To what extent did citizens in 2006 see Felipe Calderon & Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador as strong & charismatic? What factors shaped these perceptions of the candidates' images? Did these perceptions have any significance for vote choice? Using data from the 2006 CIDE-CSES survey, we show first that Calderon & Lopez Obrador were perceived on average to have similar leadership strengths. We then argue & show evidence using multiple variable regression analysis that conditions of threat have important effects on perceptions of leadership & charisma. Finally, we justify the importance of candidate image by demonstrating the close relationship between perceptions of these two candidates' images & vote choice. Adapted from the source document.

RESUMEN: En los Estados Unidos y otros países de democracia establecida existen teorías de opción electoral (vote choice) para explicar cómo y por qué los votantes toman decisiones electorales. Éstas nos explican cómo votan los ciudadanos, incluso qué peso dan a las evaluaciones de los candidatos, la económica, y otros factores en sus decisiones de voto. Conforme América Latina se democratiza y algunas naciones en el continente cuentan con varios años de continuidad electoral, surgen preguntas con respecto a la relevancia de teorías electorales desarrolladas en las democracias más antiguas para el análisis del contexto de las nuevas democracias. Particularmente, si ciudadanos de naciones pobres que carecen de las ventajas asociadas a la riqueza económica, educación y cobertura extensiva a través de la televisión, presentan patrones de conducta electoral reconociblemente similares a aquéllos presentes en las democracias más antiguas.Este estudio aplica dos teorías electorales de las democracias antiguas a un contexto donde la democracia es nueva: Nicaragua. Éstas son la teoría de retrospección (Fiorina) y la teoría de prospección (Sniderman, Tetlock, Brody). El artículo muestra que, no obstante su pobreza y el bajo nivel educativo de muchos de sus habitantes, en las tres últimas elecciones los nicaragüenses tenían una capacidad de voto que sigue las dos teorías. Además, los votantes nicaragüenses pensaron no solamente en los candidatos y la economía sino también en el tipo de régimen, una cuestión que nunca se presentaría en Estados Unidos o en otras democracias antiguas. Los menos educados se mostraron tan capaces de utilizar prospección como los más educados. A pesar de la poca antigüedad de la democracia nicaragüense y de la relativa inexperiencia de su población, hemos descubierto una importante evidencia de la utilización de procesos evaluativos retrospectivos y prospectivos en Nicaragua en las elecciones para las cuales contamos con información estadística. La conducta electoral desarrollada para democracias establecidas es también válida para las nuevas democracias, lo cual tiene fuertes implicaciones para la democratización. ?ABSTRACT: Voting studies in the United States and other established democracies offer vote choice theories to explain how and why voters make electoral decisions. These theories explain what weight voters give to evaluations of candidates, the economy and other factors in making their decisions. As Latin America has democratized and some nations of that continent have now had several years of electoral continuity, the question emerges about whether vote choice theories from established democracies have relevance for today's developing democracies. In particular, it is important to know if citizens from poor nations that lack the advantages associated with wealth, education, and extensive media coverage demonstrate vote choice patterns recognizably similar to those found in older democracies.This study applies two vote choice theories from older democracies to a context where democracy is new: Nicaragua. These are the theory of retrospective voting (Fiorina) and the theory of prospective voting (Sniderman, Tetlock, Brody). The article illustrates that, despite poverty, low educational levels, and lack of extensive media coverage, in the last three elections Nicaraguans demonstrated a vote choice capacity that fits with these two theories. Moreover, Nicarguan voters considered not only the candidates and the economy but also the regime type in making their choice. This last is a question that does not emerge in established democracies. The less educated were as capable of using prospection as the more educated. Despite the newness of the Nicaraguan democracy and the relative electoral inexperience of the population, we have found important statistical evidence of the utility of retrospective and prospective theories. Electoral patterns developed for established democracies are also valid for new democracies, a finding that has important implications for democratization.

[ES] En los Estados Unidos y otros países de democracia establecida existen teorías de opción electoral (vote choice) para explicar cómo y por qué los votantes toman decisiones electorales. Éstas nos explican cómo votan los ciudadanos, incluso qué peso dan a las evaluaciones de los candidatos, la económica, y otros factores en sus decisiones de voto. Conforme América Latina se democratiza y algunas naciones en el continente cuentan con varios años de continuidad electoral, surgen preguntas con respecto a la relevancia de teorías electorales desarrolladas en las democracias más antiguas para el análisis del contexto de las nuevas democracias. Particularmente, si ciudadanos de naciones pobres que carecen de las ventajas asociadas a la riqueza económica, educación y cobertura extensiva a través de la televisión, presentan patrones de conducta electoral reconociblemente similares a aquéllos presentes en las democracias más antiguas. Este estudio aplica dos teorías electorales de las democracias antiguas a un contexto donde la democracia es nueva: Nicaragua. Éstas son la teoría de retrospección (Fiorina) y la teoría de prospección (Sniderman, Tetlock, Brody). El artículo muestra que, no obstante su pobreza y el bajo nivel educativo de muchos de sus habitantes, en las tres últimas elecciones los nicaragüenses tenían una capacidad de voto que sigue las dos teorías. Además, los votantes nicaragüenses pensaron no solamente en los candidatos y la economía sino también en el tipo de régimen, una cuestión que nunca se presentaría en Estados Unidos o en otras democracias antiguas. Los menos educados se mostraron tan capaces de utilizar prospección como los más educados. A pesar de la poca antigüedad de la democracia nicaragüense y de la relativa inexperiencia de su población, hemos descubierto una importante evidencia de la utilización de procesos evaluativos retrospectivos y prospectivos en Nicaragua en las elecciones para las cuales contamos con información estadística. La conducta electoral desarrollada para democracias establecidas es también válida para las nuevas democracias, lo cual tiene fuertes implicaciones para la democratización. ? ; [EN] Voting studies in the United States and other established democracies offer vote choice theories to explain how and why voters make electoral decisions. These theories explain what weight voters give to evaluations of candidates, the economy and other factors in making their decisions. As Latin America has democratized and some nations of that continent have now had several years of electoral continuity, the question emerges about whether vote choice theories from established democracies have relevance for today's developing democracies. In particular, it is important to know if citizens from poor nations that lack the advantages associated with wealth, education, and extensive media coverage demonstrate vote choice patterns recognizably similar to those found in older democracies. This study applies two vote choice theories from older democracies to a context where democracy is new: Nicaragua. These are the theory of retrospective voting (Fiorina) and the theory of prospective voting (Sniderman, Tetlock, Brody). The article illustrates that, despite poverty, low educational levels, and lack of extensive media coverage, in the last three elections Nicaraguans demonstrated a vote choice capacity that fits with these two theories. Moreover, Nicarguan voters considered not only the candidates and the economy but also the regime type in making their choice. This last is a question that does not emerge in established democracies. The less educated were as capable of using prospection as the more educated. Despite the newness of the Nicaraguan democracy and the relative electoral inexperience of the population, we have found important statistical evidence of the utility of retrospective and prospective theories. Electoral patterns developed for established democracies are also valid for new democracies, a finding that has important implications for democratization.

This paper explains why income did not shape vote choice in the Mexican 2006 election, despite the efforts by the left party to turn this race into a referendum on inequality & widespread poverty. Logistic models of a post-election survey indicate that "false consciousness" or the inability to understand the issues at stake do not distinguish poorer from wealthier voters. Adapted from the source document.

Party identification is the best predictor of vote choice. Independents (those who do not identify with any party) represent in Mexico around a third of the electorate since more than a decade ago. Using data from the Second National Survey of Political Culture & Citizen Customs (ENCUP), carried out in March 2003, I find that independents in Mexico have more education than partisans, belong to a higher social class, are not as interested in politics, do not vote, do not trust political institutions, & think that Mexico does not live in full democracy. Independents are potentially decisive in a competitive electoral context, given their volatility & sensibility to political campaigns. Tables, Appendixes, References. Adapted from the source document.

Peer Reviewed ; Economic voting studies remain contentious in Spain. The notion is widely-held that there is no economic vote in that country, due to the pervasive and effacing influences of left-right ideology. Still, a growing number of investigations show a significant impact of economic evaluation on the vote choice in Spanish national elections. At least one possible exception here is the 2008 election, where the question has received no systematic treatment. In this study, we explore the impact of economic voting in that contest. We find, first, the presence of strong economic voting of the valence kind. Second, we find that two hitherto unstudied dimensions of economic voting - position and patrimony - have their own independent effect.

Research on public opinion has found that respondents to survey questions lack true attitudes towards different economic and moral issues. Given the latter, these respondents do not use their stance towards these issues to decide for which party or candidate to vote for. One of the main reasons for these dismal findings lies on the existence of measurement error. The paper presents a technique that corrects for measurement error and tests the importance of issues stances in the vote choice of the Mexican electorate during the 2006 Presidential Election. The paper also analyzes the significance of a "perceived issue space" and demonstrates that this concept is important to understand which particular issue stances matter and which ones do not in a voting decision. Adapted from the source document.

Summary: Until the first studies focused on the assumption of clarity, the economic voting theory implicitly assumed that the government was responsible for the country's economic situation. Unlike work based on the assumption of clarity in liability, in this article we assume that rational voters are uncertain when the executive is held accountable and that they are risk-neutral. On that basis, we define a useful function with two arguments: the prospective sociotropic assessment and the ideological distance between the voter and the different policy options he or she can choose from. Thus, the decision on financial voting consists of two stages: on the one hand, the voter subjectively attributes responsibility to the government and, on the other, decides on his voting choice on the basis of the prospective sociotropic assessment and ideological distance. From the cross-checks and estimates made in this study, three main conclusions are drawn: (I) that it can no longer be assumed that the attribution of responsibility is an implicit assumption of financial voting; (II) there is a subjective probability that the elector will hold the executive accountable for the economic situation of the country, which affects his individual decision and also influences the effect of the factors explaining the electoral behaviour, and (iii) that ideology is an argument of the utility function, which we cannot ignore as traditionally the theory of economic voting has done. ; Resumen: Hasta la aparición de los primeros estudios centrados en la hipótesis de la claridad, la teoría del voto económico asumía implícitamente que el gobierno es responsable de la situación económica del país. A diferencia de los trabajos basados en la hipótesis de la claridad en la responsabilidad, en este artículo suponemos que los electores racionales tienen incertidumbre al momento de responsabilizar al Ejecutivo y son neutrales ante el riesgo. A partir de ahí, definimos una función de utilidad con dos argumentos: la valoración sociotrópica ...

This article analyzes the European Court of Humans Rights' jurisprudence on right to vote (article 3 of Protocol n.º I ). For this purpose, it must be acknowledged a subjective dimension too which defines the legal status of citizen in its relations with the public authorities that can be specified in the principle of universal, equal and free suffrage, an objective dimension as an structural element of Democracy and what creates positive obligations to public authorities in order to implement the content of the right: «to ensure the free expression of the opinion of the people in the choice of the legislature». However, the development of positive obligations on the basis of Article 3 of Protocol No. 1 goes no further than this. So, the Court considers that this provision does not require the States to implement a specific electoral system or electoral rules because the State enjoys a wide margin of appreciation when assessing restrictions of these rights. ; Este artículo analiza la jurisprudencia del Tribunal Europeo de Derechos Humanos sobre el sufragio activo (artículo 3 del Protocolo I). Para ello, partimos de la consideración de que en este derecho debe reconocerse además de una dimensión subjetiva, que define la posición jurídica de los ciudadanos en su relación con los poderes públicos y se concreta en los principios de sufragio universal, libre e igual, una dimensión objetiva en tanto que elemento esencial del Estado Democrático, lo que origina una obligación positiva de los poderes públicos para la realización de su contenido: la libre expresión del pueblo en las elecciones del cuerpo legislativo. Sin embargo, el desarrollo de las obligaciones positivas del Estado no ha agotado todas sus posibilidades de manera que el Tribunal Europeo de Derechos Humanos reconoce un amplio margen de apreciación de los Estados en la definición de los sistemas electorales y de las normas del procedimiento electoral.This article analyzes the European Court of Humans Rights' jurisprudence on right to vote (article 3 of Protocol n.º I ). For this purpose, it must be acknowledged a subjective dimension too which defines the legal status of citizen in its relations with the public authorities that can be specified in the principle of universal, equal and free suffrage, an objective dimension as an structural element of Democracy and what creates positive obligations to public authorities in order to implement the content of the right: «to ensure the free expression of the opinion of the people in the choice of the legislature». However, the development of positive obligations on the basis of Article 3 of Protocol No. 1 goes no further than this. So, the Court considers that this provision does not require the States to implement a specific electoral system or electoral rules because the State enjoys a wide margin of appreciation when assessing restrictions of these rights.

In Bogota reforms in 1991 blocked a market for buying and selling of votes. The patronage lost effectiveness, citizens developed a vote of opinion and the city demonstrated an outstanding performance in the provision of public goods and services. This story is illustrated by a new panel with data at the district and the polling station from 1988 to 2003. An interesting episode exposes preferences class of bogotanos by each of its mayors. However, the main result is the collapse caused by structural reforms. Before 1991, the most exposed areas to patronage generated a higher percentage of votes for the traditional parties and got more coverage in public services after 1991, the two relationships are no longer true. A patronage machine collapses.

Rational Choice Theory has been used extensively in electoral studies. This theory suggests that a voter chooses the political party that is closer to his or her ideology. However, there is scant empirical evidence on which issues are considered in a particular election & their relative weight on the voter's calculations. This paper presents a new model for electoral studies using mathematical optimization. It is shown that this model allows for better explanations of electoral outcomes, assigning with a clear methodology the weight that each issue has used on voter's choice. Tables, Figures, Appendixes, References. Adapted from the source document.

La investigación tuvo como objetivo identificar las estrategias empleadas para la resolución de disonancia cognitiva post decisional basada en los resultados de las elecciones de alcaldía de la ciudad de Barranquilla celebradas el 27 de octubre del año 2019. Se realizó una investigación cualitativa con enfoque hermenéutico a través de triangulación de técnicas (sesiones de grupo y entrevistas a profundidad) y fuentes (hombres y mujeres de diferentes niveles socio económicos). Participaron 48 personas residentes en la ciudad de Barranquilla que participaron en las elecciones de alcalde del año 2019 y que el candidato que apoyaron no salió electo. Los resultados muestran que las estrategias de cambio de atractivo de las alternativas, trivialización de la elección y distracción – olvido, fueron las estrategias utilizadas por los participantes para reducir la disonancia cognitiva, utilizando argumentos basados en creencias, sentimientos y emociones en relación con los candidatos, la ciudad y su entorno político. ; This research aimed to identify the strategies used for the resolution of post-decisional cognitive dissonance based on the results of the mayoral elections of Barranquilla city held on October 27, 2019. A qualitative research with a hermeneutical approach was carried out where an intra-method triangulation was carried through the triangulation of techniques (group sessions and in-depth interviews) and sources (men and women of different socioeconomic levels). The sample included 48 people residing in the city of Barranquilla who voted in the last mayoral election and the candidate that they supported was not elected. The results showed that the strategies to reduce the cognitive dissonance generated by the fact of having voted for the candidate who was not elected was: change the attractiveness of the alternatives, the trivialization of the choice and distraction - forgetting. To reduce the cognitive dissonance they used arguments based on beliefs, feelings and emotions of each of the candidates and in all the information that they perceive about the city and its political environment. ; Magíster en Psicología del Consumidor ; Maestría ; Maestría en Psicología del Consumidor

There are different ways to participate and influence government decisions through the political expression of citizens. However, elections are undoubtedly the mechanism most used by different democratic systems. The objective of this study was to determine how the shortterm factors mediated electoral behavior in the internal voting of the Popular University of Cesar in the choice of representation and management positions. From the methodological point of view, a bibliographical review of written texts was first available, followed by an analysis of the speeches of some candidates. Among the scope of this study was the predominance of contextual factors and the tendency of one vote according to social class ; Existen diversas maneras de participar e influir en las decisiones gubernamentales mediante la expresión política de los ciudadanos. Sin embargo, las elecciones son indudablemente el mecanismo más empleado por los distintos sistemas democráticos. El objetivo de este estudio fue determinar cómo los factores cortoplacistas mediaron en el comportamiento electoral de los estudiantes de la Universidad Popular del Cesar en la escogencia de los cargos de representación y dirección estudiantil. En cuanto a su fundamentación Epistémica – metodológica Cualitativa, se dispuso primeramente, de una revisión bibliográfica de textos escritos, seguido del análisis de los discursos de algunos candidatos. Entre los alcances de este estudio se observó el predominio de los factores de tipo contextual y la tendencia de un voto según la clase social.

El objetivo de este capítulo es analizar el presunto despliegue de la «democracia sin alternativas» en Europa y sus consecuencias para la calidad de las democracias nacionales, especialmente las de la periferia de la zona euro – GIIPS: Grecia, Irlanda, Italia, Portugal y España. El argumento principal es que la falta de receptividad de los gobiernos nacionales de los países GIIPS hacia los deseos de sus ciudadanos constituye el reverso de la moneda de un exceso de atención de los gobiernos de los países núcleo del euro, en especial de Alemania, a las preferencias de su ciudadanía. En todas las democracias representativas los políticos se enfrentan a un dilema fundamental entre receptividad a las demandas ciudadanas y responsabilidad ante terceros. Enfrentados a este dilema, los países núcleo del euro han optado claramente por lo primero –la receptividad ante las demandas de los electorados nacionales–, mientras que los países de la periferia de la zona euro se han visto forzados a ser responsables –ante sus socios de la UE y ante la UE en su totalidad. Como resultado, la crisis financiera de 2008 ha conducido a una ruptura en tres frentes dentro de la Unión Europea entre el núcleo y la periferia: con relación al ritmo de la recuperación económica, a los grados de autonomía gubernamental y, lo más importante, a la legitimidad democrática. Los países de la periferia de la eurozona se encuentran en el bando perdedor en los tres frentes. ; The objective of this article is to analyze the alleged unfolding of 'democracy without choices' in Europe and its consequences for the quality of national democracies, particularly those of the Eurozone periphery – GIIPS: Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. The argument is, in a nutshell, that the lack of responsiveness of GIIPS national Governments to their respective national constituencies is the reverse of the medal of an excess of responsiveness in core Euro countries, particularly Germany. Governments are trapped between the pressure to be responsive at home and the need to be responsible to their European partners and the European project. If the trade-off of all democratic politics is between responsiveness and responsibility, Euro core countries have clearly opted for responsiveness –to domestic constituencies– and Eurozone peripheral countries have been forced to be responsible –towards their EU partners and the EU as a whole. As a result, the 2008 financial crisis has led to a three-fold breach inside the EU between core and periphery concerning the pace of economic recovery, the degrees of governmental autonomy and, most important of all, democratic legitimacy. Eurozone peripheral countries are at the losing side of this three-fold breach.