Suchergebnisse

Despite the importance of local elections in the United States, political scientists have little knowledge of what shapes vote choice in most municipalities and special districts, particularly in the suburbs where a majority of Americans live. This article develops and tests models of local voting behavior using unique survey data of over 1,400 voters in 30 different suburban communities. Suburban electoral politics are dominated by a nonrepresentative group of "stakeholders," who are highly informed and interested in local affairs. Because of this, vote choice in suburban elections ends up sharing many characteristics with larger contests (i.e., issue salience, partisanship, and candidate likeability), although their impact varies with the size and diversity of the particular community (e.g., in smaller suburbs, voters are more engaged in local politics, more likely to know candidates personally, and more likely to vote against incumbents). These findings suggest the importance of developing new theories about voting behavior in micro-electoral contexts.

Analyzes effects of stereotypes, voters' baseline gender preference, and a hypothetical vote choice question involving two candidates; based on a telephone survey of 455 residents of Ohio, conducted from late Mar.-mid Apr. 2000.

This piece analyzes the subject Time of Vote Choice in India, a hitherto under-researched aspect of voting behaviour in the country. Using longitudinal data from National Election Studies conducted by Lokniti between 1996 and 2014, it shows that voting intentions of India's voters are increasingly crystallizing before the start of the campaign period of an election. On the other hand, the proportion of voters postponing their vote choice to after the start of a campaign has declined over the last two decades. This declining trend is unique to India as most Western democracies have registered an overtime increase in campaign-period decision-making. While Indian voters who are less political, less partisan and less exposed to media are more likely to be late deciders than early ones, nevertheless, we also find that late deciders—both campaign-period and last-minute—have gradually become more politically sophisticated and attentive over the years. In this respect, our findings validate both the traditional floating voter theory of the Columbia School and some of the newer studies that have countered it.

THIS ARTICLE ARGUES THAT STYLE ISSUES HAVE A RATIONAL IMPACT ON VOTER THINKING AND THAT THEY WERE SIGNIFICANT IN THE 1972 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. EVIDENCE OF STYLE ISSUE SALIENCE IS EXAMINED; VOTER PERCEPTION IS EXAMINED; AND A CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STYLE ISSUES AND VOTE CHOICE IS ANALYZED.

This article examines a fundamental aspect of democracy: the relationship between the policy positions of candidates and the choices of voters. Researchers have suggested three criteria—proximity, direction, and discounting—by which voters might judge candidates' policy positions. More than 50 peer-reviewed articles, employing data from more than 20 countries, have attempted to adjudicate among these theories. We explain why existing data and methods are insufficient to estimate the prevalence of these criteria in the electorate. We then formally derive an exhaustive set of critical tests: situations in which the criteria predict different vote choices. Finally, through survey experiments concerning health care policy, we administer the tests to a nationally representative sample. We find that proximity voting is about twice as common as discounting and four times as common as directional voting. Furthermore, discounting is most prevalent among ideological centrists and nonpartisans, who make sophisticated judgments that help align policy with their preferences. These findings demonstrate the promise of combining formal theory and experiments to answer previously intractable questions about democracy.

Political scientists have assumed that dividing the electorate into issue publics, on the basis of salient issues, leads to a better understanding of the relationships between issues and both candidate evaluations and electoral choice. This portrait accords nicely with the description offered by pluralists of the operation of the electoral arena. Our data suggest that, at least in 1972, the portrait is flawed. Using a variety of multivariate tech niques we show that salience fails to sharpen the impact of issues and that electoral choice was, fundamentally, a question of candidate images.