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"If we think of votes as 'votes for' candidates, then it would make some sense to declare any candidate who wins only a plurality of votes, but not a majority, as the victor." ~ Donald J. Boudreaux

After the EU referendum, suspicions grew about the role of Russia in clinching the narrow 'win' for Brexit. Evidence was mounting that there had been deep involvement and interference by Russian 'agents' whose aim was to destabilise the EU by enabling Britain's departure from it. It was no secret that Russia's Prime Minister/President, Vladimir Putin, […]
The post A vote for Brexit was a vote for Putin appeared first on EU ROPE.

Is more information for voters always unambiguously a good thing?

Partisanship is sticky. People tend to vote like their parents and to maintain their partisan leanings over time. But to understand partisanship, we need a model that can explain why people change party loyalties when they do. This is what Ken Kollman and John E. Jackson of the University of Michigan Center for Political Studies (CPS) provide in Dynamic Partisanship: How and Why Voter Loyalties Change.
The post How Voter Loyalties Change first appeared on Center for Political Studies (CPS) Blog.

Fifty percent of the votes to Joe Biden in Michigan's presidential primary election were mail-in, unverified, no signature, no ID.

Predominantly black districts drawn to ensure black representation may not be the best way to put the sins of racism behind us—and may increase the odds of less, not more, political and racial polarization.
The post Is Vote Dilution Necessarily Bad? appeared first on American Enterprise Institute - AEI.

We've become deeply familiar with stimulus checks in the last few years, but what isn't clear is what affect these transfers may have on elections. Could stimulus checks be enough for citizens to change their votes to the party handing out the money and if so, is this a way for politicians to buy votes?

Northwestern Professor of economics Silvia Vannutelli explores these questions in a paper titled "The Political Economy of Stimulus Transfers". She looks at stimulus payments in Italy in 2014 and uncovers some surprising findings. Not only did these transfers appear to "purchase" some votes, but the effect seem to persist into the future.

There are over four million leasehold properties within England and Wales according to the Government. This represents a sizeable number of voters. First a little bit of background.In December 2017 Sajid Javid, as Secretary of State, commissioned the Law Commission to find ways to make it 'easier, faster and cheaper' for leaseholders to extend their lease and buy the freehold (the Labour Government under Tony Blair tried to do this in 1997). The King's Speech on 7th November unveiled the Government's proposal.A number of the proposals are pragmatic. The introduction of 990 year leases with a ground rent of a peppercorn is a sensible way forward, as is allowing purchasers to immediately pursue a lease extension/enfranchisement rather than wait the current two years of being registered at the Land Registry. It is also pragmatic to allow the 25% commercial element to be increased to 50% for collective enfranchisement. However, there is a fly in the ointment. This 'fly' is the Government needs an easy win ahead of a General Election and by threatening to fix the rates in calculating the premium to extend the lease and abolishing marriage value to make it cheaper for leaseholders there will be a costly and lengthy legal challenge. Freeholders have already stated they will mount a fierce legal challenge if marriage value is abolished and they are not paid 'fair' value representing current market evidence. The Law Commission was so worried about this they took leading counsel's opinion on this matter, who warned there was a high risk of freeholders being successful, which would cost taxpayers tens of billions of pounds. The reality is the introduction of new 990 year lease means marriage value (only payable under 80 years) and ground rent will naturally fall away. Consequently, the Government pursuing this policy seems reckless in the extreme, especially when taxpayers might have to pick up the bill.Is there a workable solution?Our team of academics offered the Government a real time working calculator, which uses market evidence and is updated daily and it keeps marriage value (much reduced due to proper peer reviewed research) and can reduce the amount payable by up to 62%. Millions of leaseholders need reform and Government needs a success and taxpayers should not be made to pick up the bill to the tune of tens of billions of pounds when there is a workable solution. All political parties are in favour of reform, but it must be done fairly and without cost to taxpayers.

Europa/Kleine Anfrage Nach sogenannten "German Votes" auf EU-Ebene erkundigt sich die Gruppe Die Linke in einer Kleinen Anfrage.

The Conservatives 2015 manifesto promised 'votes for life' for all Britons living abroad – in line with other major democracies, such as the USA, France, Italy, and Canada. Britons who'd been living abroad for more than 15 years weren't allowed to vote in UK elections. But the Tories pledged to change that. Those Britons abroad […]
The post Brexit: Millions were denied a vote appeared first on Ideas on Europe.

The Conservatives 2015 manifesto promised 'votes for life' for all Britons living abroad – in line with other major democracies, such as the USA, France, Italy, and Canada. Britons who'd been living abroad for more than 15 years weren't allowed to vote in UK elections. But the Tories pledged to change that. Those Britons abroad […]
The post Brexit: Millions were denied a vote appeared first on EU ROPE.

Congressman Thomas Massie discusses his "no" votes on foreign aid, COVID-19 relief, and labeling anti-Zionism antisemitism on episode two of Just Asking Questions.

Tradition would have it that on November 8 there will be many votes against Joe Biden, but there could also be many against Donald Trump, although neither of them is a candidate in these elections. In the United States, it is usual in mid-term congressional elections for the president's party to lose votes, seats, and the majority in Congress. Many citizens vote against the party in the White House rather than for the opposition. In the past, their negative votes were interpreted as voters expressing their fear of too much concentration of power in one party and suggesting that the two parties should cooperate. However, for the past thirty years, the vote against the president's party has expressed growing dissatisfaction with the results of the government's performance. The most common result of divided government in recent times has not been bipartisan cooperation but gridlock between the White House and Capitol Hill and consequent legislative paralysis, government shutdowns for failure to pass the budget, and attempts to impeach presidents. Recent experience shows that in the absence of an anchor of national unity in the face of an external enemy, such as that that existed during the Cold War, the separation of powers between the legislative Congress and the executive Presidency with only two political parties is the perfect recipe for confrontation.The philosopher Isaiah Berlin spoke of "negative liberty", centered on the protection of rights, versus "positive liberty" associated with participation and access to public benefits. By analogy, we can say that in the United States there is a "negative democracy" in which two parties leveraged in separate institutions block each other at the expense of potential positive decisions for citizens.The novelty tomorrow would be that many would be inclined to block Trump's party and Trump-supported candidates, mostly out of fear that they would again break basic democratic norms. It would not be a vote in favor of the president's party, but a vote against the opposition, a double negative vote.To facilitate this electoral behavior, Biden has participated very little in the campaigns of the candidates for representatives and senators, while most of them have avoided publicly associating with him and have emphasized the danger of the Republican candidates. The former orange president is increasingly desperate because of the judicial processes that beset him and his probable indictment. His foolish hope is to try for immunity through a congressional majority. But as Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell observed, it may not be easy for his party to win Congress because of the low "quality of candidates." One Trumpist candidate confused the Gestapo with gazpacho; another proposes to solve climate change by sending "bad air" to China; a TV doctor became famous for selling diet pills; yet another woman assures that rape does not generate pregnancy because the coupling "is not organic". Et cetera.As is often the case, the United States is the biggest show in the world that preludes and magnifies similar processes in other countries. In Europe, too, there has recently been much dissatisfaction, negative partisanship, and voting against the party in government, as in the American tradition. For several decades, the governing parties won elections two to three times in a row on average. But since the Great Recession and the pandemic, only one-fourth of governments have been re-elected. In recent weeks, there have been victories for the "negative" vote in countries such as Italy and Sweden. Many voters, dissatisfied with government performance, are voting for the devil unknown rather than the devil known. There is also beginning to be double negative voting, the most striking example of which has been France, where many voters chose to block Le Pen's opposition.With some governing parties in crisis, new parties have emerged, there is more political fragmentation and it is more difficult to build a parliamentary majority. In Spain, there were four elections in four years before a government was formed. But the record has already been broken several times. In Israel, there have been five elections in three and a half years with a lot of double negative votes against Netanyahu. In Bulgaria, there have been four elections in a year and a half, and still no government.In the United States, the hypothesis of many votes against Trumpists may be disproved if dissatisfied voters are guided more by bad inflation and violent crime rates than by threats to democracy or the quality of candidates.If the traditional "negative" vote against the president's party still dominates and the Republicans gain a majority in any house of Congress, legislative paralysis and government shutdowns will return, as in the last two years of Trump, as well as some parody of impeachment of Joe Biden. In other words, traditional negative democracy with citizen frustration and anger, inoperative institutions, opportunities for ignorant adventurers, and the orange's media re-emergence. Whatever the outcome, in January new candidates will begin to appear in both parties for the 2024 presidential primaries. One can bet that, in a spiral of rejection and negativity, thereafter, calls to vote against, negative and double negative votes will abound even more.

Today we're looking at how emotions, particularly anxiety brought on by the covid pandemic, shape or influence voter preferences.

Survey data shows relatively infrequent voters are significantly more likely to support the Trump-era GOP than those who vote more often. Will this change traditional left and right-wing attitudes towards mandatory voting and other policies intended to increase turnout?