Suchergebnisse

Studies interested in the effects of electoral systems have to contend with a difficult problem. Ideally, to properly estimate these effects, one would wish to compare elections that are completely identical except for their electoral system. This ideal situation, however, never occurs in real life. To circumvent this limitation, we created electoral simulations that approximate this ideal situation. In the context of a general election, we asked respondents to take part in multiple simulated votes, each of them using different electoral rules. By studying the different choices of voters and different outcomes of these elections, we gain the ability to identify how electoral systems determine voting behavior. This design was used to identify the relative importance of psychological and mechanical effects on the vote as well as voting preferences for female political candidates.

Indonesia is the world's third largest democracy (after India and the USA) and the only fully democratic Muslim democracy, yet it remains little known in the comparative politics literature. This book aspires to do for Indonesian political studies what The American Voter did for American political science. It contributes a major new case, the world's largest Muslim democracy, to the latest research in cross-national voting behavior, making the unique argument that Indonesian voters, like voters in many developing and developed democracies, are 'critical citizens' or critical democrats. The analysis is based on original opinion surveys conducted after every national-level democratic election in Indonesia from 1999 to the present by the respected Indonesian Survey Institute and Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting.

Conventional wisdom suggests that partisanship has little impact on voter behavior in Brazil; what matters most is pork-barreling, incumbent performance, and candidates' charisma. This book shows that soon after redemocratization in the 1980s, over half of Brazilian voters expressed either a strong affinity or antipathy for or against a particular political party. In particular, that the contours of positive and negative partisanship in Brazil have mainly been shaped by how people feel about one party - the Workers' Party (PT). Voter behavior in Brazil has largely been structured around sentiment for or against this one party, and not any of Brazil's many others. The authors show how the PT managed to successfully cultivate widespread partisanship in a difficult environment, and also explain the emergence of anti-PT attitudes. They then reveal how positive and negative partisanship shape voters' attitudes about politics and policy, and how they shape their choices in the ballot booth.

We provide first evidence for the long-run causal impact that Chinese imports to European regions had on voting outcomes and revisit earlier estimates of the short-run impact for a methodological reason. The fringes of the political spectrum gained ground many years after the China shock plateaued and, unlike an earlier study by Colantone and Stanig (2018b), we do not find any robust evidence for a short-run effect on far-right votes. Instead, far-left and populist parties gained in the short run. We identify persistent long-run effects of import shocks on voting. These effects are biased towards populism and, to a lesser extent, to the far-right.

FOMC, voting behavior, non-linear estimating techniques. - Abstimmungsverhalten, nicht-lineare Schätzmethoden