Suchergebnisse

In this article, we aim at sharpening common understandings of the notion of political crisis to better explain the trajectories of authoritarian transformations during popular uprisings. We make three major claims. First, we propose a definition of crisis as brief moments of institutional fluidity and openness in which a process can take different directions. We delineate the crisis concept from the concept of critical junctures and outline how our approach contributes to the methodological debate on 'near misses'. Second, we indicate how the de-institutionalisation processes leading up to a crisis are to be analytically distinguished from within-crisis moments. We argue in favour of a discontinuity approach that takes into account the different temporalities of gradual lead-up processes and rapid within-crisis dynamics. Finally, we illustrate our theoretical and analytical reasoning with concrete cases from the authoritarian crises of the Arab uprisings, whilst suggesting that our argument can travel to other areas of research in which crisis narratives have gained prominence.

In sum, by showing how and why local regional disputes quickly develop into global crises through the paired power of historical memory and time-space compression, 'Near Abroad' reshapes our understanding of the current conflict raging in the centre of the Eurasian landmass and international politics as a whole.

The present note is based on a publication by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), entitled "World agriculture: towards 2015/2030" (FAO 2002). The objective is to summarize the issues pointed out for FAO on the challenges to agriculture during the next year. The future of agriculture is dependent on the improvement of food security and sustainability (FAO 2002). In order to do this, it is necessary to analyze many contributory factors in assessing the prospects for progress towards improved food security and sustainability worldwide, according to the FAO study. One of the main challenges refers to a range of issues pertaining to the overall economic and international trading conditions, and those affecting rural poverty (FAO 2002). It affects the status and future of agricultural resources and technology. Of the many issues, FAO concluded that the development of local food production in the low-income countries with high dependence on agriculture for employment and income is the one factor that dominates all others in determining progress or failure in improving their food security. The FAO study also predicted that the uneven path of progress is, unfortunately, likely to extend well into this century. It indicates that in spite of some significant enhancements in food security and nutrition by the year 2015, mainly resulting from increased domestic production but also from additional growth in food imports, the World Food Summit target of halving the number of undernourished persons by no later than 2015 is far from being reached, and may not be accomplished even by 2030 (FAO 2002). However, according to the study, parts of South Asia may still be in a difficult position and much of sub-Saharan Africa will probably not be significantly better off and may possibly be even worse off than at present in the absence of concerted action by all concerned. Therefore, the world must brace itself for continuing interventions to cope with the consequences of local food crises and for action to permanently remove their root causes (FAO 2002). FAO emphasized that significant upgrading of the overall development performance of the lagging countries, with emphasis on hunger and poverty reduction, will free the world of the most pressing food insecurity problems (FAO 2002). A conclusion of the FAO study is that any progress towards this goal depends on many factors, not least among which the political will and mobilization of additional required resources; so that past experience underlines the crucial role of agriculture in the process of overall national development, particularly where a large part of the population, depends on the sector for employment and income. On the issue of sustainability, FAO emphasized that there is an assessment of the possible extent and intensity of use of resources over the years to 2030 and concluded that pressure on resources, including those that are associated with degradation, will continue to build up albeit at a slower rate than in the past. The main pressures threatening sustainability are likely to be those emanating from rural poverty, as more and more people attempt to extract a living out of dwindling resources (FAO 2002). When these processes occur in an environment of fragile and limited resources and when the circumstances for introducing sustainable technologies and practices are not propitious, the risk grows that a vicious circle of poverty and resource degradation will set in, as FAO pointed out. Mr. Jacques Diouf, Director-General of FAO, concluded by reiterating the importance of developing sustainable local food production and of rural development in the low-income countries; most of them depend highly on agriculture for employment and income as an important and, often, the critical component of any strategy to improve their levels of food security and alleviate poverty (FAO 2002). In conclusion, it is for this reason that sustainable agricultural and rural development must be given enhanced priority in all strategic framework for FAO and others organizations for food production and agriculture security and sustainability.

Clear communication is generally viewed as requisite to the peaceful resolution of international crises. The success of bargaining, deterrent, & compelling strategies hinges on the credibility afforded by unambiguous signals exchanged between opponents. Here, theoretical & comparative case analysis reveals a substantial difference between the efficacy of traditional diplomatic negotiation & tacit measures, eg, the deployment &/or exercise of military forces near the scene of crisis as communication modes. Where negotiation alone often fails, backing, preceding, or, at times, replacing diplomacy with tacit measures afford the greatest chances for success. Policy implications are explored, particularly as they apply to US regional extended deterrent strategies for protecting geographically distant friends & interests. 3 Tables.

Explores E.N. Chernykh's Great Migration (C-wave) model for explaining long-term changes in world-system behavior across seven periods of crisis/transformation that occurred between 3500 B.C. & 1300 A.D. to argue that he was wrong to claim there was only one pan-Eurasian crisis in the first millennium B.C. Two such crises are described. It is maintained that it is possible to connect actors widely separated in Eurasian space. However, evidence of indirect linkages between Mediterranean & Chinese security problems does not imply that all actors were involved in exactly the same processes at the same time. Attention is given to both the element of continuity that is found when first millennium crises are compared to last second millennium crises & the impact of the two crises of the first millennium B.C. on the later reorientation of trade patterns in the Near East. Although Chernykh's model is useful for analyzing the onset of Eurasian interdependence, his interpretation & crisis dating need to be revised. Tables, Figures, References. J. Lindroth

Explores E.N. Chernykh's Great Migration (C-wave) model for explaining long-term changes in world-system behavior across seven periods of crisis/transformation that occurred between 3500 B.C. & 1300 A.D. to argue that he was wrong to claim there was only one pan-Eurasian crisis in the first millennium B.C. Two such crises are described. It is maintained that it is possible to connect actors widely separated in Eurasian space. However, evidence of indirect linkages between Mediterranean & Chinese security problems does not imply that all actors were involved in exactly the same processes at the same time. Attention is given to both the element of continuity that is found when first millennium crises are compared to last second millennium crises & the impact of the two crises of the first millennium B.C. on the later reorientation of trade patterns in the Near East. Although Chernykh's model is useful for analyzing the onset of Eurasian interdependence, his interpretation & crisis dating need to be revised. Tables, Figures, References. J. Lindroth

During the 1970s, the media headlined one housing crisis after another. Concern about these alleged crises diminished as more dispassionate though less well-publicized follow-up studies demonstrated that the claims had been exaggerated. Nearly all comprehensive government & academic evaluations of housing problems & policies during the decade reached the same conclusions & offered identical recommendations about desirable changes in housing policy. All found that housing conditions improved steadily in the postwar period, the improvement was largely due to rapid income growth, government programs made a minor contribution at best, & housing programs & policies were both inequitable & inefficient. As the fraction of households living in substandard housing declined, the housing problems of poor persons were considered a function of their poverty. All evaluations argued to reduce housing subsidies for middle- & low-income households, to shift away from production programs, & to assist low-income households in acquiring standard housing through cash grants. In spite of the near unanimity of these findings & policy recommendations, the nation's housing policy has consistently followed a different course. Modified HA.

The 3 traditional models of Middle Eastern conflict are analysed and rejected. Presents an historical study of the evolution of the Near East from the times of Ottoman domination. Argues that the technical and military superiority of Europe was the instrument of a revolution in thinking which destabilised the Middle Eastern feeling of identity and has been eating away at its roots for over a century. (SJK)

The Financial Crisis accelerated a latent Fiscal Crisis that had been brewing in many Western countries. The paper outlines the causes of the Financial Crisis, and how this increased expenditure and reduced revenues for many Western governments. But these additional fiscal stresses merely advanced the day of reckoning when fiscal problems had to be faced Demographics (the Baby Boom effect) dictated that reforms would be required in taxation, health care and pensions to smooth the transition. Many governments had not prepared adequately, so that the added burden of the Financial Crisis provided a double impost on budgets. The paper compares Canada and Australia in this framework, showing that there are similarities and differences that are instructive. Both countries avoided the initial Crisis, but they may not be so fortunate in the near future.

I identify new patterns in countries' economic performance over the 2007-2014 period based on proximity through distance, trade, and finance to the US subprime mortgage and Eurozone debt crisis areas. To understand the causes of the cross-country variation, I develop an open economy model with two transmission channels that can be shocked separately: international trade and finance. The model is the first to include a government and heterogeneous firms that can default independently of one another and has a novel endogenous cost of sovereign default. I calibrate the model to the average experiences of countries near to and far from the crisis areas. Using these calibrations, disturbances on the order of those observed during the late 2000s are separately applied to each channel to study transmission. The results suggest credit disruption as the primary contagion driver, rather than the trade channel. Given the substantial degree of financial contagion, I run a series of counterfactuals studying the efficacy of capital controls and find that they would be a useful tool for preventing similarly severe contagion in the future, so long as there is not capital immobility to the degree that the local sovereign can default without suffering capital flight.

A central question for policy makers concerned with helping the poor through a macro crisis is how to target scarcer resources at a time of greater need. Technical arguments suggest that finer targeting through tightening individual programs or reallocation resources towards more tightly targeted programs uses resources more efficiently for poverty reduction. These arguments survive even when the greater informational costs and the incentive effects of finer targeting are taken into account. But political economy arguments suggest that finer targeting will end up with fewer resources allocated to that program, and that looser targeting, because it knits together the interests of the poor and the near poor, may generate greater resources and hence be more effective for poverty reduction despite being 'leakier.' Overall the policy advice to tighten targeting and to avoid more loosely targeted programs during crises needs to be given with consideration caution. However, the advice to design transfer systems with greater flexibility, in the technical and the political economy senses, is strengthened by the arguments presented here. The case for external assistance to design flexible transfer systems ex ante and to relieve the painful tradeoffs in targeting during a crisis is also shown to be strong.

During the 1970s, the media headlined one housing crisis after another. Concern about these alleged crises tended to disappear as more dispassionate and less well-publicized follow-up studies demonstrated that the claims had been exaggerated. Nearly all comprehensive government and academic evaluations of housing problems and policies during the decade reached the same conclusions about the nature of the nation's housing problems and offered identical recommendations about desirable changes in housing policy. All found that housing conditions improved steadily in the postwar period, that the improvement was largely caused by a rapid growth in per capita and household incomes, that government programs made a minor contribution at best, and that existing housing programs and policies were both inequitable and inefficient. As the fraction of households living in substandard housing declined, moreover, the housing problems of poor persons were increasingly recognized as problems of poverty. All evaluations argued in favor of a reduction in housing subsidies for middle-and low-income households, a shift away from production programs, and greater reliance on cash grants that would provide assistance to low-income households in acquiring standard housing. In spite of this near unanimity of findings and policy recommendations, the nation's housing policy has consistently followed a different course.