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The diffusion mechanism of terrorist shocks to third countries' stock market responses is explored by employing a Heckit model. Stock market response is broken down to (i) the direction of reaction and (ii) conditional on negative reaction, its magnitude. The analysis puts forward two behavioral factors (memory‐based utility/availability heuristic, social amplification of risk), proxied by past terrorism record and terrorism risk concern as the shocks' diffusion channels. The findings are that the likelihood and the size of negative stock market reaction increase with terrorism record and risk concern. Additionally, weak evidence is uncovered for a mitigation of risk concern's impact by favorable macroeconomic stance. Furthermore, the impact of behavioral factors, especially over the magnitude of reaction, is robust when controlling for economic linkages. The latter are also significant predictors of the direction of stock market reaction, but not of its magnitude.

Travel demand models focus on explaining how much individuals actually travel but offer no insight into how much individuals think they travel. The authors propose that the latter is an important determinant of traveler behavior, and that actual mobility is refracted through a variety of filters that magnify or diminish those subjective evaluations of travel amounts. Linear regression models of subjective mobility measures provided by 1,358 San Francisco Bay Area commuters were estimated earlier; the focus of this article is on identifying the potential cognitive and affective mechanisms that influence subjective mobility upward or downward, after controlling for objective mobility. The authors find three major types of mechanisms: awareness-heightening, affective, and comparison-inducing. Recurring patterns of effects in these three categories are analyzed in the light of psychological and marketing research concepts including the availability heuristic, social comparison, relative deprivation, autobiographical memory, and motivation theory.

Offers psychological insights into how people perceive, respond to, value, and make decisions about the environmentEnvironmental law may seem a strange space to seek insights from psychology. Psychology, after all, seeks to illuminate the interior of the human mind, while environmental law is fundamentally concerned with the exterior surroundings—the environment—in which people live.Yet psychology is a crucial, undervalued factor in how laws shape people's interactions with the environment. Psychology can offer environmental law a rich, empirically informed account of why, when, and how people act in ways that affect the environment—which can then be used to more effectively pursue specific policy goals. When environmental law fails to incorporate insights from psychology, it risks misunderstanding and mispredicting human behaviors that may injure or otherwise affect the environment, and misprescribing legal tools to shape or mitigate those behaviors.The Psychology of Environmental Law provides key insights regarding how psychology can inform, explain, and improve how environmental law operates. It offers concrete analyses of the theoretical and practical payoffs in pollution control, ecosystem management, and climate change law and policy when psychological insights are taken into account

Cover -- Title -- Copyright -- Contents -- Preface -- 1 Exemplification in Communication -- Conceptual Considerations -- Definition of the Exemplification Process -- Exemplification of Known Event Populations -- Exemplification of Unknown Event Populations -- Exemplification in Different Domains of Communication -- Exemplification in Personal Experience -- The Interface Between Direct and Mediated Experience -- 2 Exemplification in Practice -- American News -- News Magazines -- Television News -- Media Comparison -- Non-American News and Advertising -- Television-News Magazines -- Television Commercials -- Magazine Advertisements -- Comparison of Information Domains -- De Facto Exemplification in Fiction and in Quasi-Fiction -- 3 Information Processing -- The Function of Schemata -- Heuristics and Their Influence -- The Representativeness Heuristic -- The Availability Heuristic -- Vividness and Salience -- Chronic Accessibility -- Emotion as a Mediator -- Empathic and Counterempathic Reactivity -- Differently Diminishing Accessibilities -- Contingency Processing -- The Informative Function -- Affect Enhancement -- Model-Observer Affinity -- 4 Exemplification Effects of the News -- Foci of Exploration -- The Research Evidence -- Exemplar-Counterexemplar Distributions -- Base-Rate Influence -- Citation as Exemplar Enhancement -- Qualitatively Distorted Exemplification -- Emotional Displays in Exemplars -- Threatening Images in Exemplification -- Effects of Innocuous Image -- Incidental Pictorial Exemplification -- 5 Exemplification Effects of Fiction and Quasi-Fiction -- Correlational Demonstrations -- Experimental Demonstrations -- 6 Toward Exemplification Literacy -- Exemplification Literacy for Information Providers -- Exemplification Literacy for the Citizenry -- Closing Remarks -- References -- Author Index -- Subject Index.

Alfred Hitchcock's Vertigo and the Hermeneutic Spiral -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- List of Figures -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Hermeneutic Spiral -- 3 Vertigo -- What, Then, Are the Basic Facts? -- Iconographic Analyses Limited to the Work Itself -- Formal Analyses Limited to the Work Itself -- Iconographic Analyses Expanding Beyond the Work Itself -- Documentable Contexts Outside the Work: Hitchcock Himself -- Documentable Contexts Outside the Work: Hitchcock's Collaborators -- "Friendly" Psychoanalytic Readings -- "Friendly" Non-Psychoanalytical Readings -- "Unfriendly" or "Resisting" Readings -- Comparative Models: Inexhaustibility by Contrast -- Positions on the Hermeneutic Spiral -- 4 Forcing Insight with Sight and the Availability Heuristic -- The Title Sequence -- 5 Vertigo, Duchamp's Anémic Cinéma and a Žižekian Brassiere -- 6 Vertigo, Man Ray's L'Etoile de mer, and Flowers -- 7 Vertigo, Kubrick's The Shining, Spellbound and Liberty -- 8 Vertigo, Lynch's Twin Peaks and the Record Player -- 9 Vertigo, Etrog's Spiral, The Shining and Traumatic Memory -- 10 Vertigo, The Shining, Spatial Mental Models and the Uncanny -- Conclusion -- Bibliography -- Index

ObjectiveThis study examines the effect of negative publicity that arose from public notices of child abuse allegations in the Catholic Church on the enrollment share and number of Catholic schools in the United States.MethodFitting least square regressions using diocese‐level panel data of Catholic school enrollment share and number of Catholic schools.ResultsI show that the reports of abuse prior to 2002 had no effect on enrollment. Yet, reports since 2002 have had a negative and long‐lasting effect and explain about two‐thirds of the decline in Catholic schooling. These are substantially larger declines than suggested in previous studies.ConclusionI argue that the differing responses to the public notices of child abuse between these two periods are derived from the availability heuristic. This is driven from a fundamental difference in media coverage of the scandal prior to 2002 and afterward. Allegations of child abuse in the Catholic Church received emphatic coverage only after 2002.

Scholars of public opinion on military intervention agree that survey respondents make judgments from limited information. Yet researchers still question whether ordinary Americans reflect elite attitudes or instead reach their own "pretty prudent" conclusions from the stated principal policy objective (PPO). This article adjudicates the debate while incorporating lessons from the study of bounded rationality. Evidence comes from an original data set of aggregate US public opinion, covering 1,080 nationally representative survey items about launching operations, across thirty-five countries, during 1981 to 2016. Tests show that PPO matters: pursuing "internal policy change" is less popular than restraining international aggression. However, language reflecting White House cues and one prominent cognitive shortcut (the "availability heuristic") statistically and substantively outperforms PPO at predicting intervention support. The results indicate that when ordinary Americans are polled about using force against salient foes (Saddam Hussein, al-Qaeda, Islamic State in Iraq and Syria), elements of bounded rationality can overtake the prudence expressed toward less vivid problems.

Scholars of public opinion on military intervention agree that survey respondents make judgments from limited information. Yet researchers still question whether ordinary Americans reflect elite attitudes or instead reach their own "pretty prudent" conclusions from the stated principal policy objective (PPO). This article adjudicates the debate while incorporating lessons from the study of bounded rationality. Evidence comes from an original data set of aggregate US public opinion, covering 1,080 nationally representative survey items about launching operations, across thirty-five countries, during 1981 to 2016. Tests show that PPO matters: pursuing "internal policy change" is less popular than restraining international aggression. However, language reflecting White House cues and one prominent cognitive shortcut (the "availability heuristic") statistically and substantively outperforms PPO at predicting intervention support. The results indicate that when ordinary Americans are polled about using force against salient foes (Saddam Hussein, al-Qaeda, Islamic State in Iraq and Syria), elements of bounded rationality can overtake the prudence expressed toward less vivid problems.

Does nuclear weapon development embolden national leaders to engage in more assertive foreign policies? Despite the importance of this question to international security studies, the nuclear emboldenment hypothesis has received little attention. This article develops a theoretical explanation of emboldenment grounded in social psychology and uses translated archival sources and secondary studies to test it on the cases of Nikita Khrushchev and Mao Zedong. The results suggest that the dangers of nuclear emboldenment, while real, are substantially less than usually assumed. Biases associated with the availability heuristic cause leaders of new nuclear powers to authorize dangerous coercive policies in the short-term. However, the fear they experience at the nuclear brink causes them and their successors to authorize moderate policies in the longer-run. Findings achieved through case study analysis lead to the conclusion that nuclear proliferation is dangerous when leaders believe that nuclear coercion is safe, but becomes safe when they learn that nuclear coercion is dangerous.

When do government policies induce responsive political participation? This study tests two hypotheses in the context of military draft policies. First, policy-induced risk motivates political participation. Second, contextual-level moderators, such as local events that make risk particularly salient, may intensify the effect of risk on participation. I use the random assignment of induction priority in the Vietnam draft lotteries to measure the effect of a son's draft risk on the voter turnout of his parents in the 1972 presidential election. I find higher rates of turnout among parents of men with 'losing' draft lottery numbers. Among parents from towns with at least one prior war casualty, I find a 7 to 9 percentage point effect of a son's draft risk on his parents' turnout. The local casualty contextual-level moderator is theorized to operate through the mechanism of an availability heuristic, whereby parents from towns with casualties could more readily imagine the adverse consequences of draft risk. Adapted from the source document.

Enforcement is a costly endeavor. Thus, governments ought to be innovative in designing less costly policies, yet, effective in preventing crime. To this end, this paper suggests using insights from behavioral law and economics. Empirical evidence demonstrates that police have an important effect in deterring crime. However, increasing the number of policemen is a costly policy. Therefore, this paper explores policy changes, which exploit offender's ambiguity aversion in order to reduce crime without increasing the police force. Namely, empirical evidence suggests that criminals are better deterred by ambiguous detection. Thus, this paper analyzes the ways to randomize the apprehension strategies to meet this end. Furthermore, it provides new evidence, based on a survey carried out for the purpose of this paper, that potential violators are largely not aware of policy changes. Inasmuch as the information regarding the intensified uncertainty is essential to its success, this paper discusses the possibility to increase criminals' awareness through the "availability heuristic."

This study conceptualizes the cultivation effect in terms of the accessibility of information in memory. Contemporary social cognition research indicates that individuals consistenly use the most accessible information in memory as a basis for a variety of judgments. Consistent with this body of literature, the current study demonstrates that, based on a reaction time task, those subjects who watch comparatively more television not only overestimate frequency or probability but also give faster responses to various types of cultivation questions. These results support the notion that relevant information, presumably "cultivated" from television viewing, is more accessible in memory for heavier viewers, and, consistent with predictions made by the availability heuristic literature, overestimations of frequency or probability are associated with this enhanced accessibility. Moreover, when controlling for speed of response in the correlation between television viewing and social reality estimates, the relationship is diminished or disappears entirely, suggesting that enhanced accessibility of relevant information for heavier viewers can at least partially account for the cultivation effect.

Cover -- Title Page -- Foreword -- Acknowledgements -- Contents -- List of Illustrations -- Introduction -- Who is this Book For? -- Key Themes -- The Book's Structure -- The Perspectives from which I have Written this Book -- Where to Next? -- PART I: SETTING THE SCENE -- 1. When Legislation Fails -- 2. The Ways in which Legislation Fails -- The Damp Squib -- The Overshoot -- Nasty Surprises -- The Backfire -- A Focus on how Legislation Changes Behaviour -- 3. Learning from Past Failures -- Learning from Failure -- Causes of Legal Design Failures -- The Stories We Tell Ourselves about the Laws We Design -- The Importance of Team Composition and Dynamics -- A Better Model of the World for which We are Designing -- How Can We Do Better? -- The Implications of Our Limited Ability to Make Reliable Predictions -- 4. How Humans (Including Legal Designers) Actually Make Decisions -- Over-Confidence -- Substitution -- The Availability Heuristic -- The Affect Heuristic -- The Anchoring Effect -- The Representativeness Heuristic -- Confirmation Bias -- Loss Aversion -- Status Quo Bias -- The Framing Effect -- Social Influences -- The Planning Fallacy -- The Impact of Bias and Noise in Legal Design -- PART II: LESSONS FOR LEGAL DESIGNERS -- 5. Adopting a Structured Approach to Designing New Laws -- The Importance of a Structured Approach -- Responding to Uncertainty: Adaptive Legislation -- Some Tools to Improve How Legislation Works -- Who should do the Legal Design Work? -- Three Concerns -- 6. What is the Current Position? -- What is the Current Law? How Does it Operate in Practice? -- The Gap between the Law on Paper and the Law in Operation -- Gathering Information about How Laws Operate -- 7. What is the Legislation Aiming to Change? -- 8. Who are the Audiences for the Legislation?.

Front Cover -- Forensic Investigations -- Forensic Investigations: An Introduction -- Copyright -- Contents -- List of Contributors -- Preface -- A SHIFT IN LAW ENFORCEMENT CHARACTER -- A SHIFT IN FORENSIC SCIENCE INTERPRETATIONS -- OUR GOALS -- REFERENCES -- 1 - Forensic Investigations: A Primer -- CORPUS DELICTI -- FORENSIC NECESSITY: EVERYBODY LIES -- THE FORENSIC INVESTIGATOR -- FORENSIC -- FORENSIC SCIENCE -- FORENSIC SCIENTISTS/FORENSIC EXAMINERS -- INVESTIGATORS/INVESTIGATIONS -- FORENSIC INVESTIGATORS -- DATA INTEGRITY -- FORENSIC INVESTIGATIONS: THE BIG PICTURE -- FORENSIC FACTS VERSUS POLITICAL REALITY -- CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- 2 - Law and Evidence1 -- THE PILLARS OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM -- ACADEMIA -- LAW ENFORCEMENT -- FORENSIC SERVICES -- THE JUDICIARY -- CORRECTIONS -- THE ADVERSARIAL SYSTEM -- THE PROSECUTION -- THE DEFENSE -- SCIENTIFIC FACT VERSUS LEGAL TRUTH -- EXPERTS, EVIDENCE, AND ADMISSIBILITY -- EVIDENCE -- CHAIN OF CUSTODY -- EXPERT EVIDENCE -- The Federal Rules of Evidence (FRE, 2011) -- Article VII. Opinions and Expert Testimony -- CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS -- THE RIGHT TO DUE PROCESS -- BRADY V. MARYLAND (1963) -- THE RIGHT TO "EFFECTIVE" COUNSEL -- MELENDEZ-DIAZ (2009) -- CONCLUSION -- REFERENCES -- 3 - Investigative Ethics -- UNDERSTANDING ETHICS -- ETHICS AND MORALITY -- ETHICAL DILEMMAS -- PROFESSIONAL ETHICS -- DUTY OF CARE -- THE FORENSIC INVESTIGATOR -- EMPLOYERS AND FITNESS FOR DUTY -- BIAS -- AN ETHICAL CANON FOR THE FORENSIC INVESTIGATOR -- CONCLUSION -- REFERENCES -- 4 - Investigators and the Scientific Method -- REFLECTION AND METACOGNITION -- CRITICAL THINKING -- THE POLYGRAPH -- THE FBI -- THE PROBLEM -- THE AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC AND THE PROBLEM WITH EXPERIENCE -- SCIENCE VERSUS SCIENTIFIC METHOD -- SCIENCE AS FALSIFICATION -- LOGICAL FALLACIES -- POISONING THE WELL

Price discovery is an important research topic in real estate due to the heterogeneous nature of housing attributes and relatively thin trading activities compared to other assets. In Commonwealth countries, including New Zealand, governments usually conduct periodic appraisals for the purpose of collecting rates and levies. Such official appraisal values of properties, also known as capital values (CVs), are considered a price anchor for market participants in their negotiation processes. Real estate agents often use these appraisal values to advertise their listings and negotiate transaction prices. In this study, we aim to make an initial attempt to study the influence of CV on market prices using Granger causality tests and a hedonic pricing model. To test the lead-lag relationships, three million housing transactions from 1990 to 2020 in New Zealand are used to construct the capital values (CVs) and transacted prices (TPs) indices in both primary and secondary housing markets. The Granger causality test suggests that the indices of TPs and CVs have a bi-directional lead-lag relationship in the secondary housing market, whereas the relationship does not follow in the primary market where the information on CVs is unavailable. The results imply the existence of a CV anchoring effect. Such anchoring effects are also contingent on the timeliness of price anchors, which is consistent with the availability heuristic from behavioural economics.