Reference Societies and Regime Change
In: Western Political Science Association 2011 Annual Meeting Paper
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In: Western Political Science Association 2011 Annual Meeting Paper
SSRN
Working paper
In: Pacific affairs, Band 85, Heft 3, S. 678-680
ISSN: 0030-851X
Adapted from the source document.
In: International journal / Canadian International Council: Canada's journal of global policy analysis, Band 64, Heft 3, S. 843
ISSN: 0020-7020
In: Foreign affairs: an American quarterly review, Band 84, Heft 4, S. 66
ISSN: 2327-7793
In: The Washington quarterly, Band 26, Heft 4, S. 51-67
ISSN: 1530-9177
In: The Washington quarterly, Band 26, Heft 4, S. 53-67
ISSN: 0163-660X, 0147-1465
World Affairs Online
In: Middle East review of international affairs. Journal, Band 7, Heft 2, S. 68-78
ISSN: 1565-8996
World Affairs Online
In: World policy journal: WPJ, Band 19, Heft 3, S. 92-94
ISSN: 1936-0924
In: Journal of democracy, Band 10, Heft 2, S. 165-174
ISSN: 1045-5736
In: Inter-American economic affairs, Band 28, S. 3-17
ISSN: 0020-4943
In: The journal of financial research: the journal of the Southern Finance Association and the Southwestern Finance Association, Band 29, Heft 1, S. 79-93
ISSN: 1475-6803
AbstractA casual inspection of a graph of volatility indexes over time indicates that volatility has undergone infrequent, but significant, shifts in its average level. The purpose of this article is to test for multiple structural breaks in the mean level of market volatility measured by the VIX and VXO, and to identify statistically the dates of these mean shifts. We find evidence of three distinct periods: pre‐1992, 1992–1997, and post‐1997. We find that the mean volatility, as well as its standard deviation, was lowest during 1992–1997. Our findings provide statistical evidence consistent with popular beliefs that market volatility changes over time.
In: Social theory & health, Band 11, Heft 4, S. 407-427
ISSN: 1477-822X
SSRN
In: American political science review, Band 104, Heft 3, S. 446-466
ISSN: 1537-5943
I study how a revolutionary vanguard might use violence to mobilize a mass public. The mechanism is informational—the vanguard uses violence to manipulate population member's beliefs about the level of antigovernment sentiment in society. The model has multiple equilibria, one equilibrium in which there may be revolution and another in which there is certain not to be. In the former, structural factors influence expected mobilization, whereas in the latter they do not. Hence, the model is consistent with structural factors influencing the likelihood of revolution in some societies but not others, offering a partial defense of structural accounts from common critiques. The model also challenges standard arguments about the role of revolutionary vanguards. The model is consistent with vanguard violence facilitating mobilization and even sparking spontaneous uprisings. However, it also predicts selection effects—an active vanguard emerges only in societies that are already coordinated on a participatory equilibrium. Hence, a correlation between vanguard activity and mass mobilization may not constitute evidence for the causal efficacy of vanguards—be it through creating focal points, providing selective incentives, or communicating information.