Inventory Replenishment in the Simplified Drum-Buffer-Rope System: A Solution Proposal Based on Heuristics and Mixed-Integer Linear Programming
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In: CAOR-D-24-01209
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In: International journal of public opinion research, Band 36, Heft 3
ISSN: 1471-6909
Abstract
Most of the micro and macro effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy have been investigated in the past two years. Few studies have examined COVID disinformation in non-Western countries. India produced the most social media disinformation, probably due to its high internet penetration, increased social media consumption, and low internet literacy (Al-Zaman, 2022a). To quantify the influence of disinformation on pandemic response, this study used mixed methods. The variables were examined through in-depth interviews. As they use digital media more than others, participants under 40 provided quantifiable data (The Future of India Foundation. (2022). Politics of disinformation: Why the current approaches are geared to fail and possible path forward. Retrieved from https://futureofindia.in/reports). It is mainly collected from metro cities of India. Moderation analysis using PLS-SEM examined whether self-perceived media literacy moderates the link between fake social media news and COVID-19 anxiety. The study findings have been linked to the theoretical foundation, the availability heuristic. This study holds significance as its implications will be beneficial in tackling the challenges associated with misinformation and its influence on response to pandemics that might be experienced in the future.
Front Cover -- Forensic Investigations -- Forensic Investigations: An Introduction -- Copyright -- Contents -- List of Contributors -- Preface -- A SHIFT IN LAW ENFORCEMENT CHARACTER -- A SHIFT IN FORENSIC SCIENCE INTERPRETATIONS -- OUR GOALS -- REFERENCES -- 1 - Forensic Investigations: A Primer -- CORPUS DELICTI -- FORENSIC NECESSITY: EVERYBODY LIES -- THE FORENSIC INVESTIGATOR -- FORENSIC -- FORENSIC SCIENCE -- FORENSIC SCIENTISTS/FORENSIC EXAMINERS -- INVESTIGATORS/INVESTIGATIONS -- FORENSIC INVESTIGATORS -- DATA INTEGRITY -- FORENSIC INVESTIGATIONS: THE BIG PICTURE -- FORENSIC FACTS VERSUS POLITICAL REALITY -- CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- 2 - Law and Evidence1 -- THE PILLARS OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM -- ACADEMIA -- LAW ENFORCEMENT -- FORENSIC SERVICES -- THE JUDICIARY -- CORRECTIONS -- THE ADVERSARIAL SYSTEM -- THE PROSECUTION -- THE DEFENSE -- SCIENTIFIC FACT VERSUS LEGAL TRUTH -- EXPERTS, EVIDENCE, AND ADMISSIBILITY -- EVIDENCE -- CHAIN OF CUSTODY -- EXPERT EVIDENCE -- The Federal Rules of Evidence (FRE, 2011) -- Article VII. Opinions and Expert Testimony -- CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS -- THE RIGHT TO DUE PROCESS -- BRADY V. MARYLAND (1963) -- THE RIGHT TO "EFFECTIVE" COUNSEL -- MELENDEZ-DIAZ (2009) -- CONCLUSION -- REFERENCES -- 3 - Investigative Ethics -- UNDERSTANDING ETHICS -- ETHICS AND MORALITY -- ETHICAL DILEMMAS -- PROFESSIONAL ETHICS -- DUTY OF CARE -- THE FORENSIC INVESTIGATOR -- EMPLOYERS AND FITNESS FOR DUTY -- BIAS -- AN ETHICAL CANON FOR THE FORENSIC INVESTIGATOR -- CONCLUSION -- REFERENCES -- 4 - Investigators and the Scientific Method -- REFLECTION AND METACOGNITION -- CRITICAL THINKING -- THE POLYGRAPH -- THE FBI -- THE PROBLEM -- THE AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC AND THE PROBLEM WITH EXPERIENCE -- SCIENCE VERSUS SCIENTIFIC METHOD -- SCIENCE AS FALSIFICATION -- LOGICAL FALLACIES -- POISONING THE WELL
Price discovery is an important research topic in real estate due to the heterogeneous nature of housing attributes and relatively thin trading activities compared to other assets. In Commonwealth countries, including New Zealand, governments usually conduct periodic appraisals for the purpose of collecting rates and levies. Such official appraisal values of properties, also known as capital values (CVs), are considered a price anchor for market participants in their negotiation processes. Real estate agents often use these appraisal values to advertise their listings and negotiate transaction prices. In this study, we aim to make an initial attempt to study the influence of CV on market prices using Granger causality tests and a hedonic pricing model. To test the lead-lag relationships, three million housing transactions from 1990 to 2020 in New Zealand are used to construct the capital values (CVs) and transacted prices (TPs) indices in both primary and secondary housing markets. The Granger causality test suggests that the indices of TPs and CVs have a bi-directional lead-lag relationship in the secondary housing market, whereas the relationship does not follow in the primary market where the information on CVs is unavailable. The results imply the existence of a CV anchoring effect. Such anchoring effects are also contingent on the timeliness of price anchors, which is consistent with the availability heuristic from behavioural economics.
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Price discovery is an important research topic in real estate due to the heterogeneous nature of housing attributes and relatively thin trading activities compared to other assets. In Commonwealth countries, including New Zealand, governments usually conduct periodic appraisals for the purpose of collecting rates and levies. Such official appraisal values of properties, also known as capital values (CVs), are considered a price anchor for market participants in their negotiation processes. Real estate agents often use these appraisal values to advertise their listings and negotiate transaction prices. In this study, we aim to make an initial attempt to study the influence of CV on market prices using Granger causality tests and a hedonic pricing model. To test the lead-lag relationships, three million housing transactions from 1990 to 2020 in New Zealand are used to construct the capital values (CVs) and transacted prices (TPs) indices in both primary and secondary housing markets. The Granger causality test suggests that the indices of TPs and CVs have a bi-directional lead-lag relationship in the secondary housing market, whereas the relationship does not follow in the primary market where the information on CVs is unavailable. The results imply the existence of a CV anchoring effect. Such anchoring effects are also contingent on the timeliness of price anchors, which is consistent with the availability heuristic from behavioural economics.
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In: Communication research, Band 16, Heft 3, S. 434-452
ISSN: 1552-3810
Reeder (Reeder, 1985; Reeder & Brewer, 1979) posited a schematic model of dispositional attributions to explain negativity effects in social cognition. However, in Reeder's schematic model of dispositional attributions, it is assumed that social perceivers' processing objective is to form an impression of a social actor. Based on Reeder and Brewer's hierarchical schema, it was predicted that mock jurors processing testimony under impression-set conditions would rate a witness to be more deceptive if the witness testified truthfully before lying than when the witness was caught lying first before telling the truth. Under memory-set conditions, based on the availability heuristic, mock jurors were predicted to rate the witness to be more deceptive when the witness lied first before telling the truth compared to when the witness told the truth first before lying. To test the hypothesis, subjects played the roles of mock jurors and watched a videotape of a witness presenting testimony during a trial. The witness was caught perjuring him- or herself by the attorney either on the first response to the attorney's queries or on the fourth response. Results confirmed the hypothesis. When subjects processed the attorney-witness interaction under impression-set objectives, subjects formed stronger judgments of the witness's deceptiveness when he or she lied on the first answer; the pattern was reversed under memory-set conditions.
Introduction: The environment that surrounds people is changing, unpredictable and uncertain, so in the use of the neo cerebral cortex, heuristics gain prominence in decision making, which in the business field is important to know the influence of the same in the support seeking successful sales in the commercial sector. This is related to local economies and the circulation of capital, the growth of wealth for the benefit of people. Objectives: To determine if the owners use heuristics to procure sales and observe what they do to enhance the chances of success for the commercialization of the products. Methodology: The study was conducted in a quantitative exploratory manner of a transactional nature through a survey designed with constructs to obtain the data. Results: It was determined that 81.31% of the population chosen in the Cuba neighborhood of the city of Manta uses heuristics as a fundamental tool in decision-making and in application of the heuristic principles of representativeness, availability, adjustment, and anchoring given that 76.77% of the owners improve the situation by having formal education. Conclusions: The owners do use heuristics, consciously or not, in an effort to sustain the operation of their businesses. At the same time, it was possible to observe that the behaviors obtained are of a fractal nature, which leads to continue exploring new polygons and that better strategies are determined to promote local economies based on trade, useful information for educational institutions, local governments, and private entrepreneurs. ; Introducción: El entorno que rodea a las personas es cambiante, impredecible e incierto por lo que en uso del neocórtex cerebral la heurística gana protagonismo en la toma de decisiones lo cual en el ámbito de negocios es importante conocer la influencia de este en el sostenimiento procurando ventas exitosas en el sector comercial. Esto se relaciona de forma directa con las economías locales y la circulación de capital, el crecimiento de la riqueza a beneficio ...
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Reference points -- Reference based decisions in finance / Fernando Zapatero -- Professionalism and sophistication effects in finance -- Individuals investment in financial structured products from rational and behavioral choice perspectives / Moran Ofir and Zvi Wiener -- Is investor rationality time varying? : evidence from the mutual fund industry / Vincent Glode, Burton Hollifield, Marcin Kacperczyk and Shimon Kogan -- Are domestic household investors better performers than foreign institutions? : new evidence from Finland / Peter L. Swan and P. Joakim Westerholm -- Culture and gender effects -- The assessment of risk behavior : a cross-cultural analysis using the Dospert scale / Wolfgang Breuer, Jana Anette Kollath, Astrid Juliane Salzmann and Rudiger von Nitzsch -- Fear of negative evaluation, culture, gender, and financial welfare / Na Young Park -- Gender and personal finance management / Zohar Rusou , Moty Amar and Shahar Ayal -- Finance and the media -- The role of emotions in decision making : theory, evidence, and examples from media psychology / Gregory Gurevich and Doron Kliger -- Firm disclosure, media and the capital markets / Doron Kliger and Smadar Siev -- Heuristics and experiments in finance -- Heuristics and biases in the Israeli mortgage market / Yevgeny Mugerman, Moran Ofir and Zvi Wiener -- The availability heuristic and other psychological aspects of investors' reactions to company-specific events / Doron Kliger and Andrey Kudryavtsev -- Uniform or discriminatory auctions : endogenizing bidder's choice in divisible goods auctions / Menachem Brenner, Dan Galai and Orly Sade -- Factors affecting the impact of investors' horizon on asset allocation decisions : an -- Experimental exploration / Moty Amar and Yoram Kroll
In: Risk analysis: an international journal, Band 26, Heft 4, S. 971-979
ISSN: 1539-6924
Experts on the risk of flooding have developed very detailed maps for different parts of Switzerland that indicate the types of damage possible and the probabilities of adverse events. Four categories of risk severity are defined on the maps, ranging from high risk to no risk. Based on these existing maps, we selected respondents for a mail survey, some from areas high in risk and others from low‐risk regions. Respondents answered several questions related to flood risk perception and preparedness. Survey results showed that respondents' risk perceptions were correlated with the experts' risk assessments. Respondents who lived in areas designated "no risk" by the experts had lower perceptions of risk than respondents who lived in areas with higher levels of designated risk. With regard to concrete prevention behavior, no differences between people living in different risk areas were observed. Survey results further suggest that many inhabitants do not know that flooding maps exist for their region. Results suggest that in some regions people overestimate the risks associated with flooding. Consequently, some people are more afraid of flooding than is justified by the facts. Some people show prevention behavior that most likely is superfluous. However, in other regions people underestimate the risks associated with flooding. These people do not show prevention behavior, and they are not well prepared for an adverse event. Furthermore, results suggest that respondents' experiences with flooding are positively related to their perceptions of flood risk. Findings of the present study are in line with the availability heuristic.
The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis, risk perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles; the remaining chapters are newly written for this book. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies. This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers, as well as to decision makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them
In: Risk analysis: an international journal, Band 42, Heft 12, S. 2671-2690
ISSN: 1539-6924
AbstractThis study adds to an emerging literature on the factors associated with individual perceptions of COVID‐19 risks and decision‐making processes related to prevention behaviors. We conducted a survey in the Netherlands (N = 3600) in June–July 2020 when the first peak of COVID‐19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths had passed, and lockdown measures had been eased. Dutch policies relied heavily on individual prevention behaviors to mitigate a second infection wave. We examine whether biases and heuristics that have been observed in how people perceive and respond to other risks also apply to the newly emergent risks posed by COVID‐19. The results indicate that people simplify risk using threshold models and that risk perceptions are related with personal experiences with COVID‐19 and experiences of close others, supporting the availability heuristic. We also observe that prevention behavior is more strongly associated with COVID‐19 risk perceptions and feelings toward the risk than with local indicators of COVID‐19 risks, and that prevention behavior is related with herding. Support for government lockdown measures is consistent with preferences that may contribute to the not‐in‐my‐term‐of‐office bias. In addition, we offer insights into the role of trust, worry, and demographic characteristics in shaping perceptions of COVID‐19 risks and how these factors relate with individual prevention behaviors and support for government prevention measures. We provide several lessons for the design of policies that limit COVID‐19 risks, including risk communication strategies and appeals to social norms. Perhaps more importantly, our analysis allows for learning lessons to mitigate the risks of future pandemics.
In: Information, technology & people, Band 30, Heft 3, S. 522-541
ISSN: 1758-5813
Purpose
Because online shopping is risky, there is a strong need to develop better presentation of online reviews, which may reduce the perceived risk and create more pleasurable shopping experiences. To test the impact of online reviews' sentiment polarity presentation, the purpose of this paper is to adopt a scenario experiment to study consumers' decision-making process under the two scenarios of mixed presentation and classified presentation of online reviews collected from Jingdong.com in China: focusing on the comparative analysis on the differences of the consumers' perceived risk, purchase intention and purchase delay, and further studying the interaction effect of involvement and online reviews' sentiment polarity presentation.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper employed a 2×2 factorial experiment to test the hypothesis. The experimental design is divided into four groups: 2 (online reviews' sentiment polarity presentation: mixed presentation vs classified presentation) × 2 (involvement: low vs high), each of which contains 90 samples. Through the data analysis, the main effect, mediation effect and moderating effect were examined.
Findings
The results show that compared with mixed presentation, classified presentation can reduce purchase intention and increase purchase delay due to the existence of loss aversion and availability heuristic. Furthermore, the paper also confirms that there is a significant interaction effect between involvement and online reviews' sentiment polarity presentation.
Originality/value
The existing research pays less attention to the impact of online reviews presentation on consumers' decision making, especially the lack of discussion on the interaction effect between involvement and online reviews presentation. For this reason, this paper proposes a problem, which concerns whether mixed presentation and classified presentation of online reviews will affect consumers' decision making differently.
In: Management and labour studies: a quarterly journal of responsible management, Band 49, Heft 1, S. 43-61
ISSN: 2321-0710
This study analyses heuristic factors affecting investor sentiment and investment decision-making in the Indian stock market. A quantitative approach is formulated with the questionnaire design for the collection of primary data regarding investor sentiment, representativeness heuristic bias, overconfidence and availability bias. The data are collected from the structured questionnaires from individual investors. The collected data were analysed using partial least square structural equation modelling to examine the relationship between the constructs: investor sentiment, representativeness heuristic bias, overconfidence and availability bias. This paper provides empirical insights into the association of heuristic factors that positively influence investor sentiment and investment decision-making. It encourages investors to make reasonable choices and to control and understand their risk. The study sheds light on the impact of investor sentiment on investment decision-making and its antecedent. It shows that investors depend on sentiment when making investment choices. Policymakers should provide consumers with knowledge and appreciation of the correct stock choice; various campaigns considering the different groups of investors will benefit decision-makers and institutional financial practitioners. This paper allows investors to pick the proper investment assistance to avoid making wrong decisions that arise as an outcome of the attitude of investors.
Purpose: To develop LIRP (location-inventory-routing problem) model with considering multiple links and solve it using method of heuristic based on algorithm of simulated annealing. Method of heuristic for the LIRP model is applied in city of Jakarta to improve effectiveness and efficiency of the food supply chain. Design/methodology/approach: The LIRP model is developed using main references. To solve the model, this paper develops two methods, namely method of optimal and method of heuristic. Computational experiments are performed to obtain the efficiency of the method of heuristic. New design of food supply chain is resulted from the application of the method of heuristic in city of Jakarta. Findings: The new design of food supply chain resulted from the application of LIRP model in city of Jakarta reduces total cost by 18%, increases availability from 76% to 95%, and reduces the number of vehicles by 73%. This paper also shows that distance is not the only consideration to decide the traversed links in cities. Research limitations/implications: Average gap between method of heuristic and method of optimal in terms of total cost is 3.1%. Practical implications: Government of city of Jakarta can improve effectiveness and efficiency of the food supply chain by implementing the LIRP model. Social implications: Citizens of Jakarta are well provided with their needs of vegetables and fruits. Originality/value: The first LIRP model that considers multiple links to represent road networks in cities. The LIRP model developed in this paper consists of probabilistic demands, multi products, and multi echelons. Traditional markets, UCCs (urban consolidation centers) and province of suppliers are the places where decisions of inventory made ; Peer Reviewed
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In: International journal of enterprise information systems: IJEIS ; an official publication of the Information Resources Management Association, Band 12, Heft 3, S. 60-77
ISSN: 1548-1123
In recent years, it has been made possible to compose exiting services when a user's request cannot be satisfied by a single web service. Web service composition is faced with several challenges among which is the rapid growth in the number of available web services leading to increased number of web services offering the same functionalities. The difference between similar services is Quality of Service (QoS) consisting of various non-functional factors such as execution time, availability, security, etc. As a result, multiple choices are possible in making a composition plan. Among numerous plans, selecting a composition plan that fulfills customer's requirements has become an important and time-consuming problem. In this paper, the researchers propose a semi-heuristic genetic algorithm that is a combination of both a heuristic method and the genetic algorithm. This heuristic method changes chromosomes based on unsatisfied constraints. Research findings show that the proposed method can be applied to find a composition plan that satisfies user's requirements more efficiently than other methods.