Suchergebnisse

Las enseñanzas de diez años de publicación de EDUCERE. The teachings inside ten years of EDUCERE´s publications. Donoso Torres, Roberto EDUCERE: difusión y visibilidad del patrimonio académico alojado en saber ULA - Venezuela y REDALYC - México.EDUCERE: diffusion and visibility of the academic patrimony in SABER-ULA - Venezuela and REDALYC - Mexico. Rivas, Pedro José Evaluación de mérito de las publicaciones académicas venezolanas registradas por FONACIT - 2007.Merit evaluation of FONACIT / 2007 registered venezuelan academic publications.Consejo Editorial EDUCERE Calidad de la educación popular.Popular education quality. Pérez Esclarín, Antonio La evaluación integral de programas y procesos: un camino hacia la calidad.Programs and processes' integrated evaluation: a road to quality. Barrera, María Elena y Aguado, Gloria Ofelia Convivir para contar: la mirada etnográfica.Living along to tell: the ethnographic view. Portillo Parody, Jairo Matemágicas: un mundo de posibilidades.Mathemagical: a world of possibilities. Martínez, Oswaldo Enseñanza del griego antiguo a partir del reconocimiento de la estructura lingüística del español.Ancient greek language teaching from linguistic spanish language structure recognition. Asuaje, Rosa Amelia Perspectivas eticas para a educaçao: uma reflexão seus pressupostos humanisticos.Perspectivas éticas para la educación: una reflexión de sus presupuestos humanísticos. Dalberio, Osvaldo Alfabetización académica: comprensión y producción de textos.Academic alphabetization: comprehension and text production. Caldera, Reina y Bermúdez, Alexis Universidad, desintitucionalización estatal (el otro) y utopía.University, state deinstitutionalization (the other one) and utopia. Massé Narváez, Carlos Una propuesta de predicados humanistas para la formación del hombre multidimensional.A humanist predicate proposal for the multidimentional man's education. Zuleta R., Eduardo J. El movimiento estudiantil secundario chileno de mayo/junio de 2006 y la actuación del poder gubernativo desde una visión macropolítica de la educación.The may-june 2006 chilean secondary student movement and the acting of government from a macropolitical view of education. Henríquez Campodonico, Raúl Exigencia académica y atribución causal: ¿qué pasa con la atribución al esfuerzo cuando hay una baja significativa en la exigencia académica?Academic demand and causative attribution: what happens with effort attribution when there is a significative low academic demand? Valenzuela Carreño, Jorge La argumentación escrita en los libros de texto: definición y propósitos.Written argument in textbooks: definition and purpose. Díaz Blanca, Lourdes y Mujica, Bernarda La promoción de la lectura significativa de textos en inglés en el noveno grado de educación básica.Promoting meaningful amount of english texts reading in 9th grade of basic education (high school). Ramírez, Zonaida y Chacón, Carmen Teresa Enseñanza de la educación ambiental desde el enfoque inteligente.Environmental education teaching from the intelligent approach. Fuentes, Lorena; Caldera, Yaxcelys e Mendoza, Iván Sistematización de la educación ambiental: teoría y práctica como fusión metodológica.Environmental education systematization: theory and practice as methodological fusion. Valero, Nay O ensino de física na universidade de passo fundo: uma investigação nos objetivos das atividades experimentais.La enseñanza de la física en la Universidad de Paso Hondo: una investigación sobre los objetivos y las actividades experimentales. Werner da Rosa, Cleci y Becker da Rosa, Alvaro Nuevas concepciones en enseñanza de las ciencias. Una experiencia de investigación-acción en un curso de física general de la universidad de los andes.New concepts in science teaching. An action-research experience in a general physics course at university of Los Andes. Grisolía, Maricarmen Universidad: producción de conocimiento científico en el ámbito de la enseñanza superior.The university and the scientific knowledge production with a transdisciplinary approach: and experience within the education masters program. Saad Lucchesi, Martha Abrahão Habilidades cognitivas básicas de investigación presentes en el desarrollo de los proyectos de aula.Research basic cognitive skills when developing classroom pedagogical projects. Pasek de Pinto, Eva y Matos de R., Yuraima Conversación con. Richard Páez m. El fútbol una pasión y una pedagogía.A conversation with. Richard Páez Monzón. Football, a passion and a pedagogy. Donoso Torres, Roberto y Rivas, Pedro José Educación y desarrollo endógeno: jóvenes para el desarrollo endógeno.Education and endogenous development: young people for the endogenous development. Ministerio de Educación y Deportes Humania del Sur: nueva propuesta editorial del CEAA Humania del Sur.A new editorial proposal from CEAA. Reseñado por: Mata, María Gabriela ; 271-281 ; rahencamp@gmail.com ; trimestral ; Nivel analítico

Las enseñanzas de diez años de publicación de EDUCERE. The teachings inside ten years of EDUCERE´s publications. Donoso Torres, Roberto EDUCERE: difusión y visibilidad del patrimonio académico alojado en saber ULA - Venezuela y REDALYC - México.EDUCERE: diffusion and visibility of the academic patrimony in SABER-ULA - Venezuela and REDALYC - Mexico. Rivas, Pedro José Evaluación de mérito de las publicaciones académicas venezolanas registradas por FONACIT - 2007.Merit evaluation of FONACIT / 2007 registered venezuelan academic publications.Consejo Editorial EDUCERE Calidad de la educación popular.Popular education quality. Pérez Esclarín, Antonio La evaluación integral de programas y procesos: un camino hacia la calidad.Programs and processes' integrated evaluation: a road to quality. Barrera, María Elena y Aguado, Gloria Ofelia Convivir para contar: la mirada etnográfica.Living along to tell: the ethnographic view. Portillo Parody, Jairo Matemágicas: un mundo de posibilidades.Mathemagical: a world of possibilities. Martínez, Oswaldo Enseñanza del griego antiguo a partir del reconocimiento de la estructura lingüística del español.Ancient greek language teaching from linguistic spanish language structure recognition. Asuaje, Rosa Amelia Perspectivas eticas para a educaçao: uma reflexão seus pressupostos humanisticos.Perspectivas éticas para la educación: una reflexión de sus presupuestos humanísticos. Dalberio, Osvaldo Alfabetización académica: comprensión y producción de textos.Academic alphabetization: comprehension and text production. Caldera, Reina y Bermúdez, Alexis Universidad, desintitucionalización estatal (el otro) y utopía.University, state deinstitutionalization (the other one) and utopia. Massé Narváez, Carlos Una propuesta de predicados humanistas para la formación del hombre multidimensional.A humanist predicate proposal for the multidimentional man's education. Zuleta R., Eduardo J. El movimiento estudiantil secundario chileno de mayo/junio de 2006 y la actuación del poder gubernativo desde una visión macropolítica de la educación.The may-june 2006 chilean secondary student movement and the acting of government from a macropolitical view of education. Henríquez Campodonico, Raúl Exigencia académica y atribución causal: ¿qué pasa con la atribución al esfuerzo cuando hay una baja significativa en la exigencia académica?Academic demand and causative attribution: what happens with effort attribution when there is a significative low academic demand? Valenzuela Carreño, Jorge La argumentación escrita en los libros de texto: definición y propósitos.Written argument in textbooks: definition and purpose. Díaz Blanca, Lourdes y Mujica, Bernarda La promoción de la lectura significativa de textos en inglés en el noveno grado de educación básica.Promoting meaningful amount of english texts reading in 9th grade of basic education (high school). Ramírez, Zonaida y Chacón, Carmen Teresa Enseñanza de la educación ambiental desde el enfoque inteligente.Environmental education teaching from the intelligent approach. Fuentes, Lorena; Caldera, Yaxcelys e Mendoza, Iván Sistematización de la educación ambiental: teoría y práctica como fusión metodológica.Environmental education systematization: theory and practice as methodological fusion. Valero, Nay O ensino de física na universidade de passo fundo: uma investigação nos objetivos das atividades experimentais.La enseñanza de la física en la Universidad de Paso Hondo: una investigación sobre los objetivos y las actividades experimentales. Werner da Rosa, Cleci y Becker da Rosa, Alvaro Nuevas concepciones en enseñanza de las ciencias. Una experiencia de investigación-acción en un curso de física general de la universidad de los andes.New concepts in science teaching. An action-research experience in a general physics course at university of Los Andes. Grisolía, Maricarmen Universidad: producción de conocimiento científico en el ámbito de la enseñanza superior.The university and the scientific knowledge production with a transdisciplinary approach: and experience within the education masters program. Saad Lucchesi, Martha Abrahão Habilidades cognitivas básicas de investigación presentes en el desarrollo de los proyectos de aula.Research basic cognitive skills when developing classroom pedagogical projects. Pasek de Pinto, Eva y Matos de R., Yuraima Conversación con. Richard Páez m. El fútbol una pasión y una pedagogía.A conversation with. Richard Páez Monzón. Football, a passion and a pedagogy. Donoso Torres, Roberto y Rivas, Pedro José Educación y desarrollo endógeno: jóvenes para el desarrollo endógeno.Education and endogenous development: young people for the endogenous development. Ministerio de Educación y Deportes Humania del Sur: nueva propuesta editorial del CEAA Humania del Sur.A new editorial proposal from CEAA. Reseñado por: Mata, María Gabriela ; 209-215 ; bbustil@uady.mx ; aguadol@audy.mx ; trimestral ; Nivel analítico

Las enseñanzas de diez años de publicación de EDUCERE. The teachings inside ten years of EDUCERE´s publications. Donoso Torres, Roberto EDUCERE: difusión y visibilidad del patrimonio académico alojado en saber ULA - Venezuela y REDALYC - México.EDUCERE: diffusion and visibility of the academic patrimony in SABER-ULA - Venezuela and REDALYC - Mexico. Rivas, Pedro José Evaluación de mérito de las publicaciones académicas venezolanas registradas por FONACIT - 2007.Merit evaluation of FONACIT / 2007 registered venezuelan academic publications.Consejo Editorial EDUCERE Calidad de la educación popular.Popular education quality. Pérez Esclarín, Antonio La evaluación integral de programas y procesos: un camino hacia la calidad.Programs and processes' integrated evaluation: a road to quality. Barrera, María Elena y Aguado, Gloria Ofelia Convivir para contar: la mirada etnográfica.Living along to tell: the ethnographic view. Portillo Parody, Jairo Matemágicas: un mundo de posibilidades.Mathemagical: a world of possibilities. Martínez, Oswaldo Enseñanza del griego antiguo a partir del reconocimiento de la estructura lingüística del español.Ancient greek language teaching from linguistic spanish language structure recognition. Asuaje, Rosa Amelia Perspectivas eticas para a educaçao: uma reflexão seus pressupostos humanisticos.Perspectivas éticas para la educación: una reflexión de sus presupuestos humanísticos. Dalberio, Osvaldo Alfabetización académica: comprensión y producción de textos.Academic alphabetization: comprehension and text production. Caldera, Reina y Bermúdez, Alexis Universidad, desintitucionalización estatal (el otro) y utopía.University, state deinstitutionalization (the other one) and utopia. Massé Narváez, Carlos Una propuesta de predicados humanistas para la formación del hombre multidimensional.A humanist predicate proposal for the multidimentional man's education. Zuleta R., Eduardo J. El movimiento estudiantil secundario chileno de mayo/junio de 2006 y la actuación del poder gubernativo desde una visión macropolítica de la educación.The may-june 2006 chilean secondary student movement and the acting of government from a macropolitical view of education. Henríquez Campodonico, Raúl Exigencia académica y atribución causal: ¿qué pasa con la atribución al esfuerzo cuando hay una baja significativa en la exigencia académica?Academic demand and causative attribution: what happens with effort attribution when there is a significative low academic demand? Valenzuela Carreño, Jorge La argumentación escrita en los libros de texto: definición y propósitos.Written argument in textbooks: definition and purpose. Díaz Blanca, Lourdes y Mujica, Bernarda La promoción de la lectura significativa de textos en inglés en el noveno grado de educación básica.Promoting meaningful amount of english texts reading in 9th grade of basic education (high school). Ramírez, Zonaida y Chacón, Carmen Teresa Enseñanza de la educación ambiental desde el enfoque inteligente.Environmental education teaching from the intelligent approach. Fuentes, Lorena; Caldera, Yaxcelys e Mendoza, Iván Sistematización de la educación ambiental: teoría y práctica como fusión metodológica.Environmental education systematization: theory and practice as methodological fusion. Valero, Nay O ensino de física na universidade de passo fundo: uma investigação nos objetivos das atividades experimentais.La enseñanza de la física en la Universidad de Paso Hondo: una investigación sobre los objetivos y las actividades experimentales. Werner da Rosa, Cleci y Becker da Rosa, Alvaro Nuevas concepciones en enseñanza de las ciencias. Una experiencia de investigación-acción en un curso de física general de la universidad de los andes.New concepts in science teaching. An action-research experience in a general physics course at university of Los Andes. Grisolía, Maricarmen Universidad: producción de conocimiento científico en el ámbito de la enseñanza superior.The university and the scientific knowledge production with a transdisciplinary approach: and experience within the education masters program. Saad Lucchesi, Martha Abrahão Habilidades cognitivas básicas de investigación presentes en el desarrollo de los proyectos de aula.Research basic cognitive skills when developing classroom pedagogical projects. Pasek de Pinto, Eva y Matos de R., Yuraima Conversación con. Richard Páez m. El fútbol una pasión y una pedagogía.A conversation with. Richard Páez Monzón. Football, a passion and a pedagogy. Donoso Torres, Roberto y Rivas, Pedro José Educación y desarrollo endógeno: jóvenes para el desarrollo endógeno.Education and endogenous development: young people for the endogenous development. Ministerio de Educación y Deportes Humania del Sur: nueva propuesta editorial del CEAA Humania del Sur.A new editorial proposal from CEAA. Reseñado por: Mata, María Gabriela ; 197-200 ; trimestral ; Nivel analítico

Die deutschen Lehrbücher für Gesundheitsökonomie basieren mehr oder weniger auf dem Menschenbild des homo oeconomicus. Dieses grundlegende Paradigma der neoklassischen Ökonomie ist entweder trivial in dem Sinn, dass die Menschen immer versuchen, das Beste aus einer jeden Situation zu machen; oder sie hat nur sehr begrenzte empirische Evidenz, wie man anhand Mark Paulys moral hazard-Postulat zeigen kann. Es besagt, dass die öffentliche Finanzierung von Gesundheitsdiensten falsche Anreize setzt, weil die Nutzer versuchen würden, mehr Leistungen als erforderlich zu bekommen. Diese systematische Überkonsumtion medizinischer Leistungen könne nur durch Zuzahlungen bzw. Franchise-Systeme beschränkt werden. Eigentlich unterstellt Pauly, dass medizinische Behandlungen ein reines Vergnügen sind, von dem man gar nicht genug haben kann - eine äußerst unrealistische Annahme. Zuzahlungen haben nur dann eine rationale Wirkung auf die Inanspruchnahme von medizinischen Leistungen, wenn die Patienten eine wirkliche Wahl haben, etwa im Festbetragssystem für Arzneimittel. Aber wenn es so wenige Belege für die Rationalität von Zuzahlungen gibt, weshalb war dann dieses Instrument in jedem Kostendämpfungsgesetz der letzten 30 Jahre in Deutschland enthalten? Die Gesundheits- und Sozialpolitik wird in Deutschland von einer hoch ideologischen Debatte über Lohnkosten und deren Wirkung auf Deutschlands Stellung im globalen Wettbewerb dominiert. Krankenkassenbeiträge werden als Lohnnebenkosten definiert und für die hohe Arbeitslosigkeit verantwortlich gemacht. Leistungskürzungen in der Gesundheitsversorgung sollen ein Impuls für wirtschaftliches Wachstum und Beschäftigung sein. Es gibt keine belastbaren Belege für diese Behauptung, aber sie beherrscht die veröffentlichte Meinung. Ein anderes Paradigma der neoklassischen Ökonomie ist die umfassende Nützlichkeit des Wettbewerbs. Jedoch gibt es zwei verschiedenen Denkschulen, deren Protagonisten Walter Eucken und F. A. von Hayek sind. Während Eucken der freien Marktwirtschaft eine suizidale Tendenz zum Monopolismus unterstellt und deshalb für einen regulierten Wettbewerb plädiert, nimmt Hayek eine dogmatische Haltung zum freien Markt ein und weist jede politische Einflussnahme ab. Diese unterschiedlichen Grundsätze bestimmen auch heute noch die deutsche Debatte über den Wettbewerb in der gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung. Es ist evident, dass ein solches System nur mit einem Risikostrukturausgleich vernünftig funktionieren kann. Andernfalls entstünde ein total verzerrter Wettbewerb zu Lasten jener Krankenkassen, die chronisch Kranke und sozial Schwache versichern. ; German textbooks on health economics are generally based on the concept of homo oeconomicus. If this basic paradigm of neoclassical economics is not simply under-stood as a truism (people make the best of any situation), then it finds itself on shaky empirical ground as has been shown by Mark Pauly in his discussion of moral haz-ard. According to Pauly the public financing of health care services provides false incentives, because such financing leads to consumers accessing more services than they actually need. Pauly states that this systematic over-consumption of medi-cal services can only be restricted through implementing co-payments or franchising arrangements. Pauly's position is, however, based on the incorrect assumption that medical treatment is a positive experience of which consumers cannot get enough. Co-payments only have a rational impact on medical service use if the patients have a real choice of products or services, for example, in the case of reference price system. If there is so little evidence for the rationality of co-payments, why has this tool been part of each cost containment measure over the last thirty years in Germany? Ger-man health care and welfare politics are dominated by a highly ideological debate on the cost of labour due to fringe benefits and the impact of high labour costs on the country's standing in the global job market. Health insurance contributions are seen as being a major part of the benefits package, thus contributing to the high cost of German labour, resulting in high unemployment rates. It follows that cuts in health care benefits are believed to give a new impetus for economic growth and the crea-tion of new jobs. Although there is no real proof for this claim, it continues to domi-nate public opinion. Another paradigm of neoclassical economic theory concerns the central role of com-petition. Here there are two schools of thought, their protagonists being Walter Eucken and F. A. von Hayek. Eucken argues that the free market economy has a suicidal tendency toward the creation of monopolies and therefore pleads for con-trolled competition. Hayek, on the other hand, has a dogmatic free market stance, refusing all forms of political intervention. These fundamentally different views strongly influence the German debate on competition among statutory health insur-ance providers. It is clear that such a competitive system can only work properly if the risk burden born by the varying insurers is taken into account, those insurers having more high-risk members receiving a special compensation. If the insurers bearing a higher level of the overall burden receive no such compensation, then competition will take place at the expense of those insurance providers with a dispro-portionate number of members with chronic diseases and/or having a lower socio-economic status.

Government Procurement can be described as the process by which large amounts of public funds are utilized by public entities to purchase goods and services from the private sector. The incorporation of Information Technologies to Government Procurement is called Electronic Government Procurement. This dissertation will describe Colombia􏰒s policy and regulation making process on the matter. It underscores that Colombia􏰒s legal framework on Electronic Government Procurement now includes the two legal pillars that …xgs"'ev has established in its works on the matter, which are: 1. Rules about electronic disclosure of government procurement related information and 2. Rules about functional equivalence of electronic government procurement documents. Functional equivalence is a principle of electronic commerce that allows the replacement of paper- based physical documents with electronic documents. This research emphasizes that before the 8th of July 2005 Colombian Electronic Government Procurement legal framework lacked the functional equivalence pillar and this circumstance denied the possibility of using Information Technologies in Government Procurement administrative Procedures. Furthermore, it explains how thanks to the issuance of Law 962/2005, the pillar has been introduced to the regulatory framework as this law has established new rules about functional equivalence for administrative procedures. Prior to concluding, the author provides his own interpretation of Law 962/2005. The sources of this research have been Colombian policy documents and legislation, international reports and regulations and legal journals and textbooks. This dissertation arrives at the conclusion that Colombian Government Procurement legal framework has been complemented thanks to Law 962/2005 in such a way that it is now possible to do Electronic Government Procurement. ; La contratación pública es la actividad a través de la cual grandes cantidades de recursos públicos son utilizados por entidades de esa misma naturaleza para comprar y adquirir bienes y servicios del sector privado. Cuando a esta actividad se le incorpora el uso de tecnologías de la información y la comunicación se genera el concepto de contratación pública electrónica, en inglés e- government procurement que a su vez tiene como sigla eq€. El presente documento describe el proceso de elaboración de política pública y regulación en material de eq€ en Colombia. Subraya que sólo hasta hoy en día el sistema de contratación pública colombiano logró incorporar los dos pilares que la gx…hws ha propuesto como bases legales para el eq€: 1. Reglas sobre publicación de información sobre procesos de contratación y, 2. Reglas sobre equivalencia funcional de documentos electrónicos expedidos con ocasión de la actividad contractual. Por equivalencia funcional se debe entender el principio según el cual los documentos electrónicos reciben la misma validez y fuerza vinculante que los documentos expedidos en sopote papel. Esta Investigación enfatiza que antes del 8 de julio de 2005, la regulación de contratación pública electrónica carecía del pilar de equivalencia funcional y que tal circunstancia hacia nugatoria la posibilidad de usar tecnologías de información en las labores de la administración pública. El documento explica cómo gracias a la expedición de la Ley 962 de 2005, el pilar faltante de equivalencia funcional fue establecido, ya que esta norma incorporó este principio para el general funcionamiento de la administración y sus procedimientos administrativos. Antes de exponer sus conclusiones, el autor sugiere su propia interpretación de la Ley 962/2005. Las fuentes que han servido de insumos para la elaboración del documento han sido documentos oficiales del gobierno colombiano así como regulación local, igualmente, legislación y reportes de organizaciones internaciones, libros y artículos en la materia. Este documento llega a la conclusión de que con la Ley 962/2005 las interpretaciones que existían en materia de contratación pública electrónica deben cambiarse al punto de que se acepte el uso de "s para el efecto de generar eq€ en Colombia.

In the late 1960s, with the decisive ending of the baby boom not fully apparent, the US Commission on Population Growth and the American Future was pondering whether America needed to adopt an antinatalist policy. Judith Blake, in a background paper for the Commission, argued that such a debate was premature: US society, she asserted, was pervaded by time‐honored pronatalist pressures; free choice infertility did not exist. "People make their 'voluntary' reproductive choices in an institutional context that severely constrains them not to remain single, not to choose childlessness, not to bear only one child, and even not to limit themselves to two children." Her term for that situation was coercive pronatalism. A first step toward reducing population growth, if that was sought, should entail eliminating those constraints, making possible "a fuller expression of human individuality and diversity." (See Volume VI of the Commission's research reports, Washington DC, 1972.)The article reprinted below, by Leta Stetter Hollingworth, is in many respects an anticipation of such arguments. It is titled "Social devices for impelling women to bear and rear children," and appeared in American Journal of Sociology, Volume 22, No. 1, July 1916. The author sets out to illustrate "just how the various social institutions have been brought to bear on women" so as to sustain a birth rate sufficient "to offset the wastage of war and disease." The perceived fertility problem then, much like now but unlike the 1960s, was how to maintain population replacement in the face of individual interests preferring small families or even childlessness. US total fertility early in the twentieth century was around 3, and had been slowly declining for decades; Europe was experiencing the decimation of its youth in World War I.A separate, familial role for women found popular justification in the idea of a maternal instinct. Hollingworth gives scant credence to such an instinct. To her it is a doctrine used in the service of social control, though she concedes a "natural desire for children" that may put a low‐level floor under fertility. For most subsequent researchers, biology has played almost no part in reproductive motivation. In this issue of PDR, however, Caroline Foster argues for a partial restoration of biological influence in the form of a non‐sex‐specific nurturing instinct.Hollingworth was a major figure in American psychology and education in the 1920s and 1930s and a scholar with broad feminist interests. She was born Leta Stetter near Chadron, Nebraska, in 1886. After studying English literature at the University of Nebraska, she moved to New York with her husband, Harry L. Hollingworth, then a graduate student. When finances permitted, she pursued part‐time graduate work at Teachers College, Columbia University, where she received her Ph.D. in educational psychology in 1916 and where, after a short period as a clinical psychologist, she remained as a faculty member for the rest of her life. Her early research challenged prevailing beliefs about the biological bases of gender differences in achievement—for example, the theory that women's abilities were more narrowly distributed than men's. Later, her research interests turned to child development—in particular, adolescence and the development and education of gifted and exceptionally gifted (IQ>180) children. In these areas she had strong and lasting influence, her books being regarded as classics. She died of cancer in 1939, aged 53. She was survived by her husband, also a psychologist, who wrote a memoir of her: Leta Stetter Hollingworth: A Biography (University of Nebraska Press, 1943; Anker, Boston, 1990).The article reprinted here was among her earliest publications, appearing the year she received her Ph.D. It is an almost casual piece, exhibiting her easy, limpid style and light touch, backed by a very sharp mind. She takes a textbook treatment of social control and a passing remark by its author and elaborates them into a cogent and witty analysis of the sociology of fertility.

 A few days ago I gave a short talk on the subject. I was partly inspired by a little comment made at a seminar, roughly "of course we all know that if prices are sticky, higher nominal rates raise higher real rates, that lowers aggregate demand and lowers inflation." Maybe we "know" that, but it's not as readily present in our models as we think. This also crystallizes some work in the ongoing "Expectations and the neutrality of interest rates" project. The equations are the utterly standard new-Keynesian model. The last equation tracks the evolution of the real value of the debt, which is usually in the footnotes of that model. OK, top right, the standard result. There is a positive but temporary shock to the monetary policy rule, u. Interest rates go up and then slowly revert. Inflation goes down. Hooray. (Output also goes down, as the Phillips Curve insists.) The next graph should give you pause on just how you interpreted the first one. What if the interest rate goes up persistently? Inflation rises, suddenly and completely matching the rise in interest rate! Yet prices are quite sticky -- k = 0.1 here. Here I drove the persistence all the way to 1, but that's not crucial. With any persistence above 0.75, higher interest rates give rise to higher inflation. What's going on? Prices are sticky, but inflation is not sticky. In the Calvo model only a few firms can change price in any instant, but they change by a large amount, so the rate of inflation can jump up instantly just as it does. I think a lot of intuition wants inflation to be sticky, so that inflation can slowly pick up after a shock. That's how it seems to work in the world, but sticky prices do not deliver that result. Hence, the real interest rate doesn't change at all in response to this persistent rise in nominal interest rates.  Now maybe inflation is sticky, costs apply to the derivative not the level, but absolutely none of the immense literature on price stickiness considers that possibility or how in the world it might be true, at least as far as I know. Let me know if I'm wrong. At a minimum, I hope I have started to undermine your faith that we all have easy textbook models in which higher interest rates reliably lower inflation. (Yes, the shock is negative. Look at the Taylor rule. This happens a lot in these models, another reason you might worry. The shock can go in a different direction from observed interest rates.) Panel 3 lowers the persistence of the shock to a cleverly chosen 0.75. Now (with sigma=1, kappa=0.1, phi= 1.2), inflation now moves with no change in interest rate at all.  The Fed merely announces the shock and inflation jumps all on its own. I call this "equilibrium selection policy" or "open mouth policy." You can regard this as a feature or a bug. If you believe this model, the Fed can move inflation just by making speeches! You can regard this as powerful "forward guidance." Or you can regard it as nuts. In any case, if you thought that the Fed's mechanism for lowering inflation is to raise nominal interest rates, inflation is sticky, real rates rise, output falls and inflation falls, well here is another case in which the standard model says something else entirely. Panel 4 is of course my main hobby horse these days. I tee up the question in Panel 1 with the red line. In that panel, the nominal interest are is higher than the expected inflation rate. The real interest rate is positive. The costs of servicing the debt have risen. That's a serious effect nowadays. With 100% debt/GDP each 1% higher real rate is 1% of GDP more deficit, $250 billion dollars per year. Somebody has to pay that sooner or later. This "monetary policy" comes with a fiscal tightening. You'll see that in the footnotes of good new-Keynesian models: lump sum taxes come along to pay higher interest costs on the debt. Now imagine Jay Powell comes knocking to Congress in the middle of a knock-down drag-out fight over spending and the debt limit, and says "oh, we're going to raise rates 4 percentage points. We need you to raise taxes or cut spending by $1 trillion to pay those extra interest costs on the debt." A laugh might be the polite answer. So, in the last graph, I ask, what happens if the Fed raises interest rates and fiscal policy refuses to raise taxes or cut spending? In the new-Keynesian model there is not a 1-1 mapping between the shock (u) process and interest rates. Many different u produce the same i. So, I ask the model, "choose a u process that produces exactly the same interest rate as in the top left panel,  but needs no additional fiscal surpluses." Declines in interest costs of the debt (inflation above interest rates) and devaluation of debt by period 1 inflation must match rises in interest costs on the debt (inflation below interest rates). The bottom right panel gives the answer to this question. Review: Same interest rate, no fiscal help? Inflation rises. In this very standard new-Keynesian model,  higher interest rates without a concurrent fiscal tightening raise inflation, immediately and persistently. Fans will know of the long-term debt extension that solves this problem, and I've plugged that solution before (see the "Expectations" paper above).The point today: The statement that we have easy simple well understood textbook models, that capture the standard intuition -- higher nominal rates with sticky prices mean higher real rates, those lower output and lower inflation -- is simply not true. The standard model behaves very differently than you think it does. It's amazing how after 30 years of playing with these simple equations, verbal intuition and the equations remain so far apart. The last two bullet points emphasize two other aspects of the intuition vs model separation. Notice that even in the top left graph, higher interest rates (and lower output) come with rising inflation. At best the higher rate causes a sudden jump down in inflation -- prices, not inflation, are sticky even in the top left graph -- but then inflation steadily rises. Not even in the top left graph do higher rates send future inflation lower than current inflation. Widespread intuition goes the other way. In all this theorizing, the Phillips Curve strikes me as the weak link. The Fed and common intuition make the Phillips Curve causal: higher rates cause lower output cause lower inflation. The original Phillips Curve was just a correlation, and Lucas 1972 thought of causality the other way: higher inflation fools people temporarily to producing more.  Here is the Phillips curve (unemployment x axis, inflation y axis) from 2012 through last month. The dots on the lower branch are the pre-covid curve, "flat" as common wisdom proclaimed. Inflation was still 2% with unemployment 3.5% on the eve of the pandemic. The upper branch is the more recent experience. I think this plot makes some sense of the Fed's colossal failure to see inflation coming, or to perceive it once the dragon was inside the outer wall and breathing fire at the inner gate. If you believe in a Phillips Curve, causal from unemployment (or "labor market conditions") to inflation, and you last saw 3.5% unemployment with 2% inflation in February 2021, the 6% unemployment of March 2021 is going to make you totally ignore any inflation blips that come along. Surely, until we get well past 3.5% unemployment again, there's nothing to worry about. Well, that was wrong. The curve "shifted" if there is a curve at all. But what to put in its place? Good question. Update:Lots of commenters and correspondents want other Phillips Curves. I've been influenced by a number of papers, especially "New Pricing Models, Same Old Phillips Curves?" by Adrien Auclert, Rodolfo Rigato, Matthew Rognlie, and Ludwig Straub, and "Price Rigidity: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications" by Emi Nakamura and  Jón Steinsson, that lots of different micro foundations all end up looking about the same. Both are great papers. Adding lags seems easy, but it's not that simple unless you overturn the forward looking eigenvalues of the system; "Expectations and the neutrality of interest rates" goes on in that way. Adding a lag without changing the system eigenvalue doesn't work. 

In case you missed it, there's an interesting (and slightly wonkish) debate going on between Olivier Blanchard and Roger Farmer concerning the theoretical relevance of the Phillips curve. Roger fired the opening salvo by presenting a macroeconomic model he claims fits the data well and yet makes no use of the Phillips curve. Farmer, in Laplace-like fashion, declared "he had no use for that hypothesis." Blanchard predictably, and understandably, came to the defense of the orthodoxy:



On Farmer. One cannot just ignore an equation (the Phillips curve), and replace it by another. 😩 Does anybody doubt that if the Fed decreased u rate down to 1%, it would not lead to more inflation? P curve relation is complex and shifting, but it is there. Sorry Roger... https://t.co/ewy09sTg7i
— Olivier Blanchard (@ojblanchard1) July 26, 2019
If you've followed my writings over the years, you'll not be surprised to learn that I am sympathetic to Roger's position in this debate. Below, I explain why. I begin by summarizing the gist of the conventional view. I then present a simple model that has no "natural" rate of unemployment. It's not exactly Roger's model, but it captures what I think is the essential part of his argument.

Let me now review. According to conventional (e.g., New-Keynesian, but also other) theory, there exists a "natural rate of unemployment" that potentially moves around owing to "structural" factors. The long-run rate of inflation is assumed to be fixed by policy in some unspecified manner. In an economy free of any disturbances, actual (and expected) inflation correspond to the long-run inflation target and the unemployment rate corresponds to the natural rate of unemployment. There is also a "natural" (or "neutral") real rate of interest that corresponds to the natural rate of unemployment. Absent any economic disturbances, monetary policy is assumed to set "the" nominal interest rate to its natural rate (the natural real rate of interest plus the inflation rate).

The actual rate of unemployment fluctuates around this natural rate owing to "shocks" that influence the aggregate demand for goods and services. I like to think of these shocks as "news" shocks that cause expectations over the future profitability of investment to fluctuate over time (see, for example, here). It does not matter for my purpose here whether expectations react rationally or irrationally to this information flow. The important thing is when people collectively become more bullish over the future return to investment, the demand for investment rises (at the expense of other forms of storing value, like government paper). For this reason, I attach the conventional label "aggregate demand shocks."

In the conventional model, fluctuations in aggregate demand for fixed nominal interest rate generate a negative relationship between inflation and unemployment. Intuitively, if firms have a bullish outlook, they raise their product prices more aggressively against the higher expected demand, and they also recruit more aggressively as well, which sends the unemployment rate lower. Adjustments in the interest rate (via monetary policy) designed to stabilize the inflation rate would imply movements in the unemployment rate without any corresponding change in inflation. All of this is consistent with the model I present below.

What about the question posed by Blanchard above: "Does anybody doubt that if the Fed decreased (unemployment) to 1%, it would not lead to more inflation?"

It's not entirely clear what experiment he has in mind. An educated guess suggests he's thinking about the Fed temporarily reducing its policy rate, causing a temporary boom in aggregate demand, leading to a temporary increase in inflation and a temporary decline in unemployment, with everything returning to normal once the Fed returns its policy rate to its "neutral" level. My answer to his question is that probably few people doubt this is what is likely to happen. Accepting this, however, does not validate the notion that "low unemployment causes high inflation." (Note: I am not accusing Blanchard of suggesting this causal relation, but many if not most people interpret the Phillips curve in exactly this way).

What I would like to ask Blanchard is the following. What do you think would happen to inflation and unemployment if the central bank lowered its policy rate permanently? I think the answer to this question would illuminate the "natural rate" hypotheses assumed by theorists, as well as what they are implicitly assuming about the conduct of fiscal policy (i.e., how it reacts to the change in monetary policy).

Let me now describe a simple OLG model (a model taught to me by Blanchard via his textbook with Stan Fischer). I will keep the wonkishness to a minimum here. If you want the full-blown version, just email me and I'll send it to you.

Individuals live for two periods in a sequence of overlapping generations. There are young entrepreneurs and young workers. Young entrepreneurs expend recruiting effort to find suitable young workers. The probability of finding a match is increasing in recruiting effort. A match, if it is formed, produces output in the following period. In this sense, recruitment effort is like an investment: a current expense leads to an expected future payoff. For the entrepreneur, the expected payoff depends in obvious ways on the expected productivity of the match (news) and the worker's bargaining power.

Young entrepreneurs face a trade-off: they can devote their resources to recruitment investment, or toward purchasing an alternative store of value in the form of interest-bearing government money (or debt). For a given inflation rate and a given nominal interest rate (both determined by policy), the optimal recruiting intensity trades off the expected return to recruiting relative to the real (inflation adjusted) return on government debt. In a steady-state, the inflation rate in my model is determined by the rate of growth of nominal debt, which is injected into the economy as lump-sum social security payments. The interest expense on the debt is financed with a lump-sum tax on old entrepreneurs.

The aggregate recruiting effort (which I associate with job vacancies) determines the unemployment rate. The model generates a negatively-sloped Beveridge curve. The equilibrium unemployment rate is: (1) decreasing in the inflation rate; (2) increasing in the nominal interest rate; (3) increasing in the bargaining power of workers; and (4) decreasing in the level of "optimism."

There is no "natural" rate of unemployment in this model in the sense of the unemployment rate necessarily  reverting ("self-correcting") to a given "natural" rate over a long enough period of time. Monetary and fiscal policy in this model can result in many different "natural" rates of unemployment (and interest). So, in this model, it is indeed possible for policy to drive the unemployment rate to permanently low levels without any inflationary consequences (since inflation is determined by the rate of growth of nominal debt in the long-run).

I should add that the model can speak to the effect of worker bargaining power on inflation as well. A permanent increase in worker bargaining power has no effect on inflation--it simply increases the real wage (and unemployment). In terms of an impulse-response function following a surprise increase in bargaining power, the mechanism works as follows. The increase in bargaining power reduces the expected return to recruiting workers, hence reduces recruiting investment. There is a portfolio substitution out of private investment activities into government securities. The implied increase in the demand for real money balances has the effect of driving the price-level down (for a given stock of nominal debt and assuming no change in the policy rate). So, increased worker bargaining power is disinflationary in the short run, but has no effect on inflation in the long run.

Let me conclude. One purpose of this post was to demonstrate that models without a "natural rate" hypothesis are not that unconventional--I cobbled the model above based on what I learned from standard textbooks, after all. Roger has shown another way to do this that does not stray too far (in my view, at least) from conventional theory either. These models may or may not turn out to be useful ways for understanding basic elements of the macroeconomy and for informing policy--I do not yet know for sure. But I do believe they are worth exploring further and I commend Roger for leading the way!

It is argued in this paper that demands for critical thinking (CT) will be determined by needs both of political superstructure and productive forces of a competitive society in the 21st century. Phenomenon of CT has to be studied and understood as one of the essential elements of some more complex entities – higher-order thinking, core of work-related skills, etc. CT skill need to be developed in connection with relevant cognitive and affective dispositions. It is pointed out, therefore, that it is more correct not to be limited by teaching CT but to educate a critical thinker, whose CT skill is relied on base of relevant dispositions. The process of educating a critical thinker, or rather – a person who will have CT, for instance, as element of a set of the core work-related skills, should continue during the kindergarten, school and university education at least. It is substantiated that under conditions of Ukrainian higher education it is expediently to use two interconnected courses in the process of CT education: logic with elements of critical thinking – in frame of the bachelor's degree studies – and critical thinking on base of logic – in frame of the master's degree studies. ; В статті аргументовано, що у ХХІ столітті запити на критичне мислення (КМ) визначають­ся потребами як політичної надбудови, так і про­дуктивних сил конкурентноздатного суспільства. Феномен КМ потрібно вивчати і осмислювати як один з суттєвих елементів складніших утворень – мислення вищого порядку, сукупності серцевинних для праці вмінь тощо. Вміння КМ слід розвивати у зв'язку з відповідними когнітивними і афективними дис­позиціями. Тож наголошено, що правильнішим є не обмежуватися навчанням КМ, а виховувати критично мислячу особу, в якої вміння КМ спиратиметься на підвалини відповідних диспозицій. Процес виховання критично мислячої осо­би, а вірніше – особи, яка матиме КМ, наприклад, у складі сукупності серце­винних для її праці вмінь, має охоплювати, щонайменше, дошкільну, шкільну й університетську освіту. Обґрунтовано, що за умов української вищої школи в процесі виховання КМ доцільно використовувати зв'язку двох курсів: логіки з елементами критичного мислення – у межах бакалаврату – і критичного мислення на основі логіки – у межах магістратури. 1. Адаменко Н., Кравченко Ю. (2014) Історія знайомства української педагогічної аудиторії з методикою «Філософія для дітей» / Філософія освіти. Philosophy of Education, 2(15), 188-194. URL: www.philosopheducation.com Adamenko, Nadiya and Kravchenko, Yuliya (2014) The History of Ukrainian Pedagogues' Knowledge of the Methodology "Philosophy for Children" / Філо¬софія освіти. Philosophy of Education, 2(15), 188-194 (in Ukrainian). URL: www. philosopheducation.com 2. Бандурка О. М., Тягло О. В. (2002) Курс логіки. Підручник. Київ : Літера ЛТД. Bandurka, Oleksandr and Tiaglo, Oleksandr (2002) Course of Logic. A Textbook. Kyiv : Litera Ltd. (in Ukrainian). 3. Бандурка О. М., Тягло О. В. (2011) Юридична логіка : підручник для студентів вищ. навч. закладів. Харків : Золота миля. Bandurka, Oleksandr and Tiaglo, Oleksandr (2011) Juridical Logic: A Textbook for the Higher-school Students. Kharkiv : Golden Mile (in Ukrainian). 4. Вайнстейн М. (2005) Каркас для критического мышления / Постметодика, 2(60), 42-45. Weinstein, Mark (2005) A Framework for Critical Thinking / Postmethodika, 2(60), 42-45 (in Russian). 5. Гайденко В. (2006) Філософія освіти в Бразилії : критична педагогіка Пауло Фрейре // Філософія освіти. Philosophy of Education, 2(4), 91-99. URL: www.philosopheducation.comHaydenko, Viktoria (2006) Philosophy of Education in Brazil: Paulo Freire's Critical Pedagogy / Філософія освіти. Philosophy of Education, 2(4), 91-99 (in Ukrainian). URL: www.philosopheducation.com 6. Грегорі М. (2006) Про філософію, дітей та «заборонені теми» / Виховна робота в школі, 6(19), 12-13. Gregory, Maughn (2006) On Philosophy, Children and Taboo Topics / Educational Work in School, 6(19), 12-13 (in Ukrainian). 7. Гриневич Л. (2017) Надто важливий. Чому потрібно прийняти новий за¬кон про освіту? / Українська правда. Життя. URL: https://life.pravda.com.ua/ columns/2017/06/19/224784/ Grinevich, Liliya (2017) Too Important. Why to Adopt a New Law on Education? / Ukrainian Truth. Life. URL: http://life.pravda.com.ua/columns/2017/06/19/224784/ (in Ukrainian). 8. Ліпман М. (2005) Критичне мислення: чим воно може бути? / Постметодика, 2(60), 33-41. Lipman, Mathew (2005) Critical Thinking: What Can It Be? / Postmethodika, 2(60), 33-41 (in Ukrainian). 9. Макларен П. (2010) Революційна критична педагогіка у ХХІ ст. Відповіді на за¬питання Ірини Предборської / Філософія освіти. Philosophy of Education, 1-2 (9), 57-66. URL: www.philosopheducation.com McLaren, Peter (2010) Revolutionary Critical Pedagogy of 21th Century (Interview with Iryna Predborska) / Філософія освіти. Philosophy of Education, 1-2(9), 57-66 (in Ukrainian). URL: www.philosopheducation.com 10. Маркс К. (1959) К критике политической экономии / Маркс К., Энгельс Ф. Со¬чинения. 2-е изд. T. 19. Москва: Госполитиздат. Marx, Karl (1959) A Contribution to the Critique of Political Economy / Marx, Karl and Engels, Frederic. 2nd ed. Collected Works, vol. 19. Moscow : State Publishing House of Political Literature (in Russian). 11. Терно С. (2012) Світ критичного мислення: образ та мімікрія / Історія в сучасній школі, 7-8, 27-38. Terno, Sergiy (2012) World of Critical Thinking: Real Form and Mimicry / History in Today School, 7-8, 27-38 (in Ukrainian). 12. Тищенко К. (2016) Зубрити – не вихід. Як у школах вчитимуть критичному і кре¬ативному мисленню / Українська правда. Життя. URL: https://life.pravda.com.ua/society/2016/07/5/214729/ Tyshchenko, Katerina (2016) To bite is not a way out. How in schools will learn critical and creative thinking / Ukrainian Truth. Life. URL:https://life.pravda.com.ua/society/2016/07/5/214729/ (in Ukrainian). 13. Тягло А. В. (1996) Логика критического мышления (в конспективном изложе¬нии). Харьков : Харьковский институт управления. Tiaglo, Alexander V. (1996) Logic of Critical Thinking (In a Concise). Kharkov : Kharkov Institute of Management (in Russian). 14. Тягло А. В. (2001) Критическое мышление на основе элементарной логики. Учебное пособие. Харьков : ХНУ им. В. Н. Каразина.Tiaglo, Alexander V. (2001) Critical Thinking on Base of Elementary Logic. Kharkov, Vasili Karazin Kharkov National University (in Russian). 15. Тягло А. В. (2004) Современная «наука рассуждать» / Постметодика, 2-3(54-55), 2-10. Tiaglo, Alexander V. (2004) Today "Science of Reasoning" / Postmethodika, 2-3(54- 55), 2-10 (in Russian). 16. Тягло А. В. (2013) «Наука рассуждать» в «быстром мире» / Философские науки, 3, 129-136. Tiaglo, Alexander V. (2013) The "Science of Reasoning" in the "Fast World" / Philosophical Sciences, 3, 129-136 (in Russian). 17. Тягло А. В., Воропай Т. С. (1999) Критическое мышление: Проблема мирового образования ХХІ века. Харьков : Университет внутренних дел. Tiaglo, Alexander V. and Voropai, Tatiana S. (1999) Critical Thinking: A Challenge to the XXI-st Century Education. Kharkov : University of Internal Affairs (in Russian). 18. Тягло О. В. (1998) Логіка з елементами курсу критичного мислення. Харків : Ви¬давництво Університету внутрішніх справ, «Основа». Tiaglo, Oleksandr V. (1998) Logic with Elements of Critical Thinking. Kharkiv : University of Internal Affairs Publishing House, "Osnova" (in Ukrainian). 19. Тягло О. В. (2005) Післямова до статей Метью Ліпмана і Марка Вайнстейна / Постметодика, 2(60), 46-47. Tiaglo, Oleksandr V. (2005) Afterword to the Papers of Mathew Lipman and Mark Weinstein / Postmethodika, 2(60), 46-47 (in Ukrainian). 20. Тягло О. В. (2008) Критичне мислення : навчальний посібник. Харків : Видавни¬цтво «Основа». Tiaglo, Oleksandr V. (2008) Critical Thinking : A Manual. Kharkiv : "Osnova" Publish¬ing House (in Ukrainian). 21. Тягло О. (2017) Чи буде культура критичного мислення в новій українській школі? / Українська правда. Життя. URL: http://www.life.pravda.com.ua/ columns/2017/02/9/222533/ Tiaglo, Oleksandr. Will the culture of critical thinking in the new Ukraini¬an school? / Ukrainian Truth. Life. URL: http://www.life.pravda.com.ua/col¬umns/2017/02/9/222533/ (in Ukrainian). 22. Четверта промислова революція (2016) / Tech Today. URL:https://techtoday.in.ua/ news/chetverta-promislova-revolyuciya-56779.html The Fourth Industrial Revolution (2016) / Tech Today. URL:https://techtoday.in.ua/ news/chetverta-promislova-revolyuciya-56779.html (in Ukrainian). 23. Brown, M. Neil and Keeley, Stuart M. (1998) Asking the Right Questions. A Guide to Critical Thinking. 5th ed. Upper Saddle River (NJ): Prentice Hall. 24. Burbules, N. and Berk, R. (1999) Critical Thinking and Critical Pedagogy / T. S. Popewitz & L. Fender (eds). Critical Theories in Education. New York: Routledge. 25. Facione, Peter A. (1990) Critical Thinking: A Statement of Expert Consensus for Pur¬poses of Educational Assessment and Instruction. Executive Summary. "The Delfi Re¬port". Millbrae, CA : The California Academic Press. 26. Gleason, William (2002) Ukrainian Higher Education in Transition: Perspectives and Policy Implications / Conference Proceedings "Democracy and Education", June 1-2, 2001, Kyiv, Ukraine. Washington, D. C. : Montclair State University Global Education Center, Literal Books. 27. Gray, Alex (2016) The 10 Skills You Need to Thrive in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. URL:https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-10-skills-you-need-to-thrive-in-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/ 28. Gregory, Maughn (2004) Practicing Democracy: Social Intelligence and Philosophical Practice / International Journal of Applied Philosophy, 18(2), 161-174. 29. Naji, Saeed and Hashim, Rosnani (eds.) (2017) History, Theory and Practice of Phi¬losophy for Children. NY : Routledge. 30. The Future of Jobs. Employment, Skills and Workforce Strategy for the Fourth Industrial Revolution (2016). URL: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs.pdf

In this collaboratively authored work, five distinguished sociologists develop an ambitious theoretical model of "cultural trauma"--And on this basis build a new understanding of how social groups interact with emotion to create new and binding understandings of social responsibility. Looking at the "meaning making process" as an open-ended social dialogue in which strikingly different social narratives vie for influence, they outline a strongly constructivist approach to trauma and apply this theoretical model in a series of extensive case studies, including the Nazi Holocaust, slavery in the

This public expenditure review identifies various opportunities to improve efficiency and equity in the social sectors. In terms of efficiency, common issues across sectors include prioritizing public interventions on the basis of their costs and effectiveness, reducing the share of personnel expenditures through a more efficient deployment of human resources, and reviewing financial mechanisms to minimize distortions and induce cost-savings (particularly in the health sector). Reallocating resources towards maintenance services, while encouraging outsourcing practices is another cross-cutting theme. Regarding equity, there is a need in all sectors to improve targeting mechanisms in the allocation of public subsidies. The Government still faces the challenge of reducing gender inequalities, particularly among low-income groups. The message also emerges that the private sector should have a more prominent role both in the financing and provision of social services. Improving institutional capacity, governance, and accountability is also a precondition for higher efficiency and equity. One of the most important recommendations from the review is the need to pursue structural reforms to promote growth, while changing the focus of public expenditure management from driving growth to ensuring stabilization and an efficient supply of public goods. The role of public expenditure in the social sectors should be to guarantee necessary investments in human capital to support growth.

I haven't had much time to blog lately, but I thought I'd weigh in on an interesting discussion I see brewing in Twitterland. The macroeconomic backdrop of the story is how the U.S. economy grew so rapidly in 2023 in the face of a dramatic increase in the Fed's policy rate. Over the period March 19, 2022 - July 27, 2023, the IORB rose from 0.40% to 5.40% and has remained there ever since. In 2023, RGDP grew at 2.5%. PCE inflation in 2023 came in at 3.7% (a decline from the previous year's 6.5%). The unemployment rate remains low (around 3.5%). What's going on here? What happened to the recession so many were predicting?



One idea floating around out there is that high interest rate policy constitutes of a form of fiscal stimulus. Here's Stephanie Kelton expressing the idea:


And here's my friend Sam Levey suggesting the same thing:



For ears attuned to conventional wisdom, this idea sounds bizarre and counterintuitive. But I think there's a way to reconcile these different views.

The first step toward reconciliation is to understand the difference between increasing the interest rate and keeping it elevated. That is, we need to make a distinction between change and level.

I think *changes* in the policy rate seem to work the way conventional wisdom dictates (i.e., lowering aggregate demand through a variety of channels). One important channel works through the wealth effect (e.g.):


Once the policy rate remains stable and the transition dynamics work their way through ("long and variable lags"), the higher policy no longer appears contractionary. In fact, high interest rate policy may very well be expansionary, as Stephanie and Sam suggest. How might this work?

In the class of economic models I work with (e.g., see here), monetary (interest rate) policy and fiscal (tax & spend) policy are inextricably linked through a consolidated government budget constraint. A *change* in the policy rate has all the textbook effects of monetary policy--but only in the "short-run." So, for example, while an *increase* in the interest rate puts downward pressure on the price-level, the disinflationary force is transitory (the P-level remains permanently lower if the policy rate remains permanently higher, but the rate of change of the P-level in the long-run remains unchanged).



At least, this is what is predicted to happen if the fiscal policy framework is "Ricardian." A Ricardian fiscal policy is one in which the path of the primary deficit/surplus adjusts over time to anchor a given debt-to-GDP ratio. A Ricardian fiscal regime is often just assumed in economic models. This assumption seems hard to reconcile with the fact that Congress does not appear to implement offsets to Fed policy. At least, it does not appear to do so immediately. It is, however, possible that the offsets (higher taxes, lower spending) are postponed to the future (perhaps after our representatives become alarmed by posts like Marc Goldwein above).


But there is another possibility. It could be that the fiscal regime is "Non-Ricardian." A Non-Ricardian fiscal policy does not anchor fiscal policy in the way a Ricardian regime does--it does not offset higher interest expense (and higher interest income for bond holders) with higher future taxes and/or lower future spending. To finance the added interest expense, it just lets the Treasury issue nominal Treasury securities at a faster pace. If the Fed keeps its policy rate steady (at its higher level), then this additional flow of private sector wealth is likely to manifest itself as stimulus (higher inflation, if the economy is at full employment). Is this where we're at today?

Of course, the Fed is likely to react to the situation described above by *increasing* its policy rate again. But if fiscal policy is Non-Ricardian, the disinflationary pressure induced by the rate change will eventually dissipate. Indeed, it will result in an even higher rate of inflation in the long-run. This is related to the "Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" argument put forth by Sargent and Wallace over 40 years ago; see here: Is it Time for Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic? And in case you believe this scenario is only hypothetical, consider this paper on the Brazilian hyperinflation: Tight Money Paradox on the Loose: A Fiscalist Hyperinflation. (Note: this is not to suggest that the U.S. is Brazil.)


As always, please feel free to share your thoughts below.

DA

It was found that in the 50-60s of the XIX century the opposition of authoritarian and autonomous tendencies of development of university education aggravates. As a result of the positive reform of higher education for educational institutions and the approval of the democratic statute of 1863, the performance of the university's scientific function, serving the interests of society, and the level of academic freedoms increased. Reactionary activists saw a threat in expanding the powers of professorial boards (M. Hiliarov-Platonov, M. Katkov, M. Liubymov, V. Puryshkevych and others). Progressive professors (in particular O. Walter, O. Kovalevskyi, V. Modestov and others) advocated the preservation of the autonomous provisions of the statute of 1863.The process of restoration of university autonomy in 1861–1882 is covered. Organizational autonomy in Kharkiv Imperial University is characterized. Thus, the board of the institution developed regulations for students and outsiders, rules of the university court, instructions of the student inspector, rules on scholarships and financial aid, rules on the use of textbooks, rules on testing applicants' knowledge, rules of student control, projects on faculty division to the branch. The effectiveness of faculty meetings has increased. There was an improvement in the quality of departments; the scientific achievements of applicants for vacant positions were analyzed in detail. The council also filed a petition with the ministry to increase the salary of an associate professor.The academic autonomy of Kharkiv University is analyzed. Professors' lectures became interesting for students due to the attraction of best practices. Teachers constantly underwent scientific internships abroad. A catalog of books was prepared for the library, the funds were constantly replenished due to works published in the university printing house. Cooperation with secondary schools in the district was close.The analysis of organizational autonomy of Kyiv University of St. Volodymyr (council meetings discussed draft legislation proposed by the ministry; approved decisions on reading special courses for students, allocating funds for laboratory equipment, filling vacancies, reviewing student work, etc.). It is also interesting that the minutes of the meetings were published in the "University News".It is proved that the academic autonomy of Kyiv University was characterized by the strengthening of academic freedoms, educational activities of teachers, providing assistance to low-income students, conducting charitable events. The growth of independence could not go unnoticed by the authorities, which was embodied in the relevant regulations. ; Виявлено, що в 50–60 рр. ХІХ ст. загострюється протистояння авторитарної й автономної тенденцій розвитку університетської освіти. Внаслідок позитивної для навчальних закладів реформи вищої освіти та затвердження демократичного статуту 1863 р. посилюється виконання університетами наукової функції, служіння інтересам суспільства, підвищується рівень академічних свобод.Реакційні діячі вбачали загрозу в розширенні повноважень професорських колегій (М. Гіляров-Платонов, М. Катков, М. Любимов, В. Пуришкевич та ін.). Прогресивні ж професори (зокрема, О. Вальтер, О. Ковалевський, В. Модестов та багато інших) виступали за збереження автономних положень статуту 1863 р. Висвітлено процес відновлення автономії університетів у 1861–1882 рр. Схарактеризовано організаційну автономію у Харківському імператорському університеті. Так, рада закладу займалася розробкою положень для студентів та сторонніх слухачів, правил діяльності університетського суду, інструкції студентського інспектора, правил про стипендії й матеріальну допомогу, правил про користування навчальними посібниками, правил про перевірку знань абітурієнтів, правил контролю занять студентів, проектів стосовно поділу факультетів на відділення. Посилилася дієвість факультетських зборів. Спостерігалося покращення якісного складу кафедр; детально аналізувалися наукові здобутки претендентів на заміщення вакантних посад. Також рада порушувала клопотання перед міністерством про підвищення окладу доцента.Проаналізовано академічну автономію Харківського університету. Лекції професорів ставали цікавими для студентів за рахунок залучення передового досвіду. Викладачі постійно проходили наукове стажування за кордоном. Для бібліотеки підготовлено каталог книг, фонди постійно поповнювалися за рахунок праць, які видавалися в університетській типографії. Тісною була співпраця з середніми навчальними закладами округу.Здійснено аналіз організаційної автономії Київського університету св. Володимира (на засіданнях ради обговорювалися проекти законодавчих актів, пропонованих міністерством; затверджували рішення про прочитання особливих для студентів курсів, виділення коштів на облаштування лабораторій, заміщення вакантних посад, рецензування студентських робіт тощо). Цікавим є і той факт, що протоколи засідань друкувалися в «Университетских известиях».Доведено, що академічна автономія Київського університету характеризувалася посиленням академічних свобод, просвітницькою діяльністю викладачів, наданням допомоги малозабезпеченим студентам, проведення ними благодійних заходів. Зростання самостійності не могло пройти повз увагу владних структур, що знаходило втілення у відповідних нормативних документах.