Suchergebnisse

This Element discusses how shiny, an R package, can help instructors teach quantitative methods more effectively by way of interactive web apps. The interactivity increases instructors' effectiveness by making students more active participants in the learning process, allowing them to engage with otherwise complex material in an accessible, dynamic way. The Element offers four detailed apps that cover two fundamental linear regression topics: estimation methods (least squares, maximum likelihood) and the classic linear regression assumptions. It includes a summary of what the apps can be used to demonstrate, detailed descriptions of the apps' full capabilities, vignettes from actual class use, and example activities. Two other apps pertain to a more advanced topic (LASSO), with similar supporting material. For instructors interested in modifying the apps, the Element also documents the main apps' general code structure, highlights some of the more likely modifications, and goes through what functions need to be amended.

The book provides an extensive discussion of asymptotic theory of M-estimators in the context of dynamic nonlinear models. The class of M-estimators contains least mean distance estimators (including maximum likelihood estimators) and generalized method of moments estimators. In addition to establishing the asymptotic properties of such estimators, the book provides a detailed discussion of the statistical and probabilistic tools necessary for such an analysis. The book also gives a careful treatment of estimators of asymptotic variance covariance matrices for dependent processes

I: The Linear Dynamic Econometric Model -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Structural, Reduced and Final Form -- 3. Solutions of the Model -- II: Spectral Representation of the Linear Dynamic Model with Constant Coefficients -- 1. Derivation of the Spectral Matrix -- 2. Numerical Approaches -- 3. An Example: Effects of Residuals -- 4. Spectral Matrix in Unstable Models -- III: Spectral Representation of a Linear Dynamic Econometric Model with Stochastic Coefficients -- 1. Methodological Approach -- 2. Effects of Alternative Estimation Methods on the Dynamic Properties of an Aggregated Demand Model of the FRG -- 3. Empirical Spectral Analysis -- IV: Effects of Exogenous Variables on the Cyclic Properties of an Econometric Model -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Dynamic Properties of an Aggregated Model of the FRG -- 3. Stabilization Policies -- V: Summary -- Appendix A -- Appendix B -- References.

To contribute to a better understanding of the fundamental process behind the spatial and temporal correlation as well as to describe the resulted dynamics, sometimes still less reflected in econometric models, is the aim of this study. It is intended to improve the development of the necessary economic analysis which allow to optimize management policies in the most diverse areas of activity, be it hospital, road or other. This work develops and applies econometric models for count data with dependencies in space and time. The existing models are often based on the Gaussian assumption, which is sometimes inadequate. It is interesting to extend it to other types of distributions, generalizing the applicability of the available models and accompanying this development with estimation methods that make them useful. Bayesian spatial autoregressive and hierarchical models are considered as alternatives to the aforementioned models, since they are a valid and flexible alternative in the modeling of spatial effects. Spatial and spatio-temporal versions of autoregressive Bayesian models are proposed, establishing the same mathematical framework for autoregressive and hierarchical models for counting data. This is an area still underdeveloped within econometrics, given the associated but necessary complexity, and it is essential to quantify the advantages and disadvantages of its use. For the proposed methodologies, it is considered its application and implementation, in several areas of activity with scientific and technological interest, namely in the health area. In this context, a study of hospital management data is carried out, specifically the calls for the national health care line, Saúde24, in order to the development of indicators for decision support, evaluation and implementation of management and government policies, as well as to the prediction of future behavior under different scenarios. Another application in the area of road safety is also considered.

Europe's notoriously high level of unemployment is one of the big puzzles of empirical macroeconomics. In recent years, the unemployment rate has fallen in The Netherlands, but the overall level in OECD Europe remains high. An investigation into why Dutch economic policy has been relatively effective could be useful for the unemployment debate in Europe. This book contributes to this investigation with its empirical analysis covering three important topics. The first part of the book investigates whether (macro) economic policies could be effective in reducing unemployment in the short run. This depends on the cause of unemployment: is it due to lack of demand for goods, or is it due to a shortage of capacity. Another question is whether macroeconomic policies can be directed to one side of the market. The high rate of unemployment among low-skilled workers is the topic of the second part of this book. How important is the impact of wage inflexibility at the lower tail of the income distribution due to institutional factors? To what extent is it caused by skill-biased technological change? A central issue is, again, how economic policy could contribute to reducing unemployment among low-skilled workers? The persistence of unemployment is investigated in the third part. Since the early eighties, Dutch policymakers have employed wage moderation as a remedy for unemployment in The Netherlands. Substantial cutbacks were made in the social security programme. This had a moderating effect on wages, which is thought to have contributed to employment growth. However, unemployment remained rather high up to 1997. Why didn't unemployment fall more quickly? To answer these questions, economists have developed different structural macroeconometric models. The Netherlands has a rich tradition in using macroeconomic models for policy analysis. This tradition originates in the work of Jan Tinbergen, Nobel laureate in economics, and the first director of CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. This book, which builds on CPB's broad experience with macroeconomic modelling, makes an important contribution to this fine Dutch tradition

One of the main still unresolved issues discussed at the United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea has been the potential impact of the recovery of cobalt, copper, manganese and nickel from seabed nodules on the markets of those metals. It has been argued that the start of seabed mining could significantly affect both prices and production if a free entry regime prevailed. In order to provide a sound empirical basis for further discussions of this topic the present study aims at quantifying the potential effects of seabed mining on the cobalt market. First, an econometric model of the world cobalt industry is specified and estimated. Next, the model is simulated for different scenarios: no exogenous change, the start of the stockpiling of cobalt by the US government, and the start of seabed mining. The study concludes that the reduction in cobalt prices, as a result of seabed mining, will be drastic, particularly in the free entry case, and that the major revenue loser will be Zaire, the world's largest producer of cobalt.