In the past two decades, research on the informal sector has emphasized the heterogeneity of this part of the economy, example in terms of entry costs, firm size, and access to credit, forward- and backward linkages as well as human and physical capital endowments. Yet, not much research has investigated the causes of this heterogeneity and the implied inefficiencies. This is true in particular for Sub-Saharan Africa, where informality dominates urban labor markets. Understanding these causes and the implied inefficiencies is however necessary to design policy interventions that are able to remove the most binding constraints for informal entrepreneurs. This note summarizes the main findings and policy conclusions from a research project that analyzes the quantitative importance of various constraints to informal enterprises in West Africa and Madagascar.
The recent worsening of the financial crisis in the United States and the contagion to the world real economy are adding pressures for Mongolia to address macroeconomic imbalances. In particular, the fall in copper prices and the shortage of liquidities worldwide will imply a slowdown of global economic growth, lower copper prices, and reduced foreign direct investment (FDI). The implications for Mongolia, a larger current account deficit, much lower government revenues, and continued large investment needs, will pose significant policy challenges for the new government to maintain growth while lowering inflation. Fiscal tightening will be a key to prevent inflation from permanently affecting expectations and to reduce the current account deficit. This includes no further increase in public wages, no further increase in universal cash transfers, and a prioritized investment program limited to what the absorptive capacity of the economy can bear. Fiscal space should be kept for a targeted social safety net to protect the most vulnerable. Reducing inflation is always painful, but the slower the authorities react, the more protracted the process is, with deeper impact in economic activity, employment and poverty.
This article examines the impacts of China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on prices in its agricultural sector. The analysis uses a new methodology to estimate nominal protection rates in China's agricultural sector before its accession to the WTO. These new measures account for differences in commodity quality within China and between China and world markets. The analysis shows that some of China's agricultural commodities are well above world market prices and others are well below. The article also assesses market integration and efficiency in China. It finds high degrees of integration between coastal and inland markets and between regional and village markets. The remarkable improvements in market performance in recent years mean that if increased imports or exports affect China's domestic price near the border, producers throughout most of China will feel the price shifts.
The problem of child labor has moved from a matter of regional and national concern to one of international debate and possible global persuasion and policy intervention. In crafting policy for mitigating this enormous problem of our times, it is important to start with a proper theoretical and empirical understanding of the phenomenon. What gives rise to child labor, and what are its consequences? What interventions might end child labor without hurting children? A well-meaning but poorly designed policy can exacerbate the poverty in which these laboring children live, even leading to starvation. The article surveys the large and rapidly growing literature on this subject, focusing mainly on the new literature based on modern economic theory and econometrics. It also looks at some of the broad policy implications of these new findings, with the objective of contributing to better informed discussion and policy design.
This paper examines the design of social investment funds (SIFs) and explores the ways they affect agents incentives to propose, select, and implement good projects. Compared with other forms of decentralized service provision, SIFs possess features of administratively delegated authority and deep political devolution. Where existing political institutions fail to deliver assistance to vulnerable groups, a well-designed SIF may represent a useful administrative alternative. This article reviews several features that provide incentives for both SIF staff and project beneficiaries and concludes with practical guidelines for designing and appraising social investment funds.
This article addresses selected developments in environmental law occurring between the publication of the 1992 Annual Survey of Virginia Law1 and June 24, 1994. Due to significant federal litigation since publication of the 1992 Survey, this article places primary emphasis on those developments which most significantly affect potential liabilities under state and federal environmental laws. This article addresses developments in the federal and state legislative and regulatory schemes, and case law from Virginia state courts, the United States District Courts for the Eastern and Western Districts of Virginia, the United States Courts of Appeals for the District of Columbia and Fourth Circuit, and the United States Supreme Court.
Since 2003, Peru has emerged as an open, rapidly growing economy. Over the review period of 2003-09, successive governments adopted policy platforms aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability, furthering the private sector supply response, broadening participation in growth, improving social service delivery, and strengthening public institutions. The World Bank Group (WBG) supported each of the three pillars of the government's poverty reduction strategy, namely: (i) broad-based economic growth that engaged a higher share of the population; (ii) enhanced human development through improved social service delivery; and (iii) strengthened public sector institutions. Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) recommends that the WBG: (i) tailor its strategy to support long-term integration of Peru's three distinct regions; (ii) seek opportunities to support large-scale infrastructure development; (iii) develop a more strategic approach to helping improve public sector management; (iv) seek further innovations in International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD's) instruments against a backdrop of declining demand for its financial resources; (v) seek to help develop a strategic planning function in Peru; (vi) build a close strategic partnership with development partners that provides concessional finance in the social sectors to optimize synergies with IBRD policy lending and analytic and advisory activities; (vii) develop a strategic focus for International Finance Corporation (IFC) around employment- generating industries in emerging sectors; (viii) maintain IFC's additionality by supporting lower-tier and more regionally dispersed private companies; and (ix) leverage the strong country presence of IBRD and IFC to enhance Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency's (MIGA's) marketing and risk assessment functions.
The Philippine Economic Update (PEU) provides an update on key economic and social developments, as well as policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank studies on the Philippines. It places them in a longer term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and policies on the outlook for the Philippines. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy and financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in the Philippines. Poverty reduction is expected to continue if the country is able to maintain the relatively high economic growth and the more positive job trends in recent years, despite recent shocks to agriculture. Recent trends show an improvement in the country's growth-poverty elasticity, which means growth is becoming more inclusive. However, the recent increase in the underemployment rate and weak agricultural output in 2016 will need to be countered by sustained increase in per capita income growth and a continued focus on supporting the structurally poor through effective social protection programs. Under these assumptions, extreme poverty is projected to further decrease from nine percent in 2014 to 6.8 percent in 2018.
Chinas economic growth continues to moderate, in 2014 gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 7.4 percent, within the governments indicative growth target of about 7.5 percent for the year, but sharply slower than the 10 percent annual growth rate china averaged for three consecutive decades. An orderly correction in real estate - reflecting policy efforts to reduce supply mismatches and tighten nonbank credit - continues to weigh on economic activity. Ongoing adjustments in real estate, a buildup of excess capacity, and decelerating export growth are affecting industrial activity. In contrast growth in services remained robust as composition of growth continues to improve.
Russia's economy experienced two shocks in 2014. On top of the structural crisis that began in 2012, Russia had to deal with cyclical and idiosyncratic challenges to the economy. One of the new shocks illustrates Russia s integration into the world economy through its natural resource exports, and thus its dependence on the global commodity cycle: oil prices more than halved between July and December 2014, giving Russia a terms-of-trade shock. The ruble lost 46 percent of its value against the US dollar, which worsened already eroded business and consumer confidence. The monetary tightening in response made credit expensive, further dampening domestic demand. The other, more idiosyncratic, shock was related to the geopolitical tensions that began in March 2014 and led to economic sanctions. The tensions not only heightened perceptions that Russian investments had become riskier, they also dramatically increased the costs of external borrowing for Russian banks and firms. Spreads on Russian credit default swaps peaked in December at 578 basis points, compared to 159 a year ago. Together with the financial sanctions imposed on Russia in late July, which have restricted the access of Russia s largest state-connected banks and firms to Western international finance markets, this all but extinguished investment. The current World Bank baseline outlook, however, sees the national poverty rate increasing from 10.8 percent in 2013 to 14.2 percent in 2015 and 2016. Poverty is expected to increase because real disposable income and consumption will decline. This would be the first significant increase in poverty rates since the 1998-1999 crises. Russia weathered the 2008- 2009 crisis well as disposable incomes continued to grow slightly. Given the current limited fiscal space, additional support for the poor and vulnerable is likely to be less generous than it was during the 2008-2009 crisis. Although people at the bottom of the income distribution are the most vulnerable, there will be less opportunity for an increase in shared prosperity in 2015-2016, and there is a worrisome possibility that recent achievements might be reversed.
The community of development partners in the Republic of Moldova would be honored to engage in the development policy dialogue with the new Government. This briefing book from development partners is offered as a first step in such a dialogue and is solely intended to assist the new Government by providing development partners views and proposals that it can use to the extent it considers useful and relevant. These recommendations are based on Moldova s existing policy orientations as set out in the National Development Strategy Moldova 2020, its international obligations, and the Association Agreement (AA) with the European Union (EU). Moldova made a formal commitment to accelerate the country s development by making it capital-intensive, sustainable and knowledge-driven. With a strategic framework outlining Moldova s development path in place, it is now critical to accelerate implementation of the reforms including those set out in the Association Agenda to move closer to the EU. Moldova faces significant risks in the financial sector, which should be addressed as a matter of urgency. A well-regulated and reliable banking sector is fundamental to business, people and international investors. At the same time a robust system of public financial management should be in place to ensure transparency and accountability of public finances. Moldova should develop a competitive business environment attractive to new investment. Moldova should also take advantage of new trading opportunities through effective implementation of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA).
Since the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s and through the Global Financial Crisis of the last decade, commendable progress has been made by the member states of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in improving economic and human development outcomes both within each country and across countries. Since 1997, the economies of the poorest countries in the ASEAN, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Vietnam, have generally grown faster than the richer economies, which has reduced gaps in per capita incomes. Overall, child mortality rates have been cut by two-thirds across the ASEAN. And significant reductions have occurred even in some of the poorer member countries such as Cambodia and Lao PDR. However, this report The ASEAN Equitable Development Monitor (henceforth referred to as The Monitor), also shows that much remains to be done to ensure that the poorest members of the ASEAN community, within countries and across countries, are not left behind as the countries of the ASEAN integrate further. In both policies and development outcomes, differences across the countries of the ASEAN remain large. In this context, the monitor is designed to facilitate further discussion on policies and programs that can promote inclusive growth within ASEAN member countries and across the ASEAN community. It presents a number of indicators that are intended to provide a summary of development outcomes across and within the ten ASEAN countries and over time. On this basis, the monitor is intended to help policymakers in ASEAN member states to identify areas of concerns and prioritize national and regional interventions. The monitor tracks indicators across two broad sets of development outcomes and policies: (i) economic development; and (ii) human development.
In 2014, economic growth slowed as it began to adjust to unsustainable economic imbalances. Real GDP growth softened to 7 percent in the first 9 months, from 12.8 percent in the previous year. Despite strong mining production growth of 26 percent, the growth of the non-mining sector of the economy dropped to 2 percent in the third quarter from 17.4 percent a year ago. Investment sharply fell amidst declining FDI and weakening business prospects. Consumption remains relatively strong but is also gradually softening. The growth effect from stimulus measures of the last year is also wearing off in 2014 as large liquidity support from the central bank cannot be sustained in the wake of high inflation and external vulnerabilities. The current account deficit is narrowing significantly to around 11 percent of GDP from almost 30 percent in the previous three years, due to import contraction over 16 percent and stronger copper exports. However, a significant external financing gap continues amidst declining foreign investment, reducing internal reserves to less than three months import cover. Inflation remains in double digits after a strong credit boom in 2014 and continuous currency depreciation. Economic growth is likely to continue to soften in 2015 as the economy remains under pressure from the external imbalance and high inflation. To help achieve the goal of the new Solutions-oriented Government to overcome economic challenges and build a sound economic management system, the following policy actions are recommended to be considered in the economic policy framework: (1) Consolidate the off-budget spending made through the DBM into the budget; (2) prepare a credible and realistic fiscal consolidation plan to reduce the deficit; (3) monetary policy should be tightened; (4) further quasi-fiscal activities need to be avoided; and (5) the exchange rate should be left flexible.
Economic growth slowed in 2012 due to capacity constraints in the oil sector, weaker global demand for metals, and unfavorable weather conditions affecting crop production. Overall, industrial output expanded by 0.5 percent in 2012, with negligible contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the year. Against the decline of agriculture, and little change in industry overall, real GDP growth was supported by a 10 percent year/year growth of the services sector in 2012. Higher export revenues supported strong domestic demand for trade and transportation, as well as for other non-tradable services. High oil prices continued spurring domestic consumption while fixed capital investments remained depressed. Private consumption remains the main contributor to GDP growth as it has been growing by 9-10 percent a year since 2010, supported by favorable commodity prices and high oil export revenue. Exports of oil largely influence the composition of Kazakhstans trading partners, while membership in the customs union appears to be affecting composition of imports. The European Union (EU) maintains the first place among trading partners of Kazakhstan, mainly due to large imports of oil and other mineral resources from Kazakhstan. Overall, employment creation continues to be driven by the services sector. Kazakhstan growth has been pro-poor, driven by job creation and real income gains. However, income disparity, which had improved up to 2009, has worsened slightly due to the crisis.
Swiss Confederation ; Ukraine has extensive public infrastructure inherited from the Soviet times but much of it has fallen into disrepair over the past decades and needs major rehabilitation or replacement so that growth may continue. Creating fiscal space for investing more is one of the critical tasks that facing the country, but a constrained fiscal space together with the use of investments as a stimulus for growth call for more efficiency in public investment management practices. There are a number of fundamental issues that need to be addressed if Ukraine is to make progress in its reform ambitions for public investment management (PIM). The most significant are: (1) most projects avoid scrutiny due to loopholes in classification (lack of definition of a public investment project); (2) there is no effective economic appraisal and appraisal review procedures in place due to limited human resource (HR) capacity, and no common technical standards; (3) the PIM system does not seem to block new projects from entering the budget but allows ministries to delay ongoing ones and squeeze in new ones; and (4) lack of strategic guidance with which to prioritize complicates project selection. One of the fundamental building blocks of a sound PIM system is a clear, legal definition of what counts as a public investment project and what does not. It should be pointed out that this already high discrepancy is only a comparative measure of input values. Developing projects that are output and performance driven should yield even greater efficiencies. Between 2000 and 2008, Ukraine was an average growth performer in a fast growing region, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging 7 percent. As the global financial crisis hit the Ukrainian economy it contracted by 15 percent in 2009, exposing its underlying macroeconomic and structural vulnerabilities. As a result of the insufficient structural transformation and impact of the economic crisis, Ukraine now faces substantial fiscal pressures that threaten economic stability and growth. The Government of Ukraine recognized the need for a modern public financial management (PFM) system and put considerable emphasis on several aspects of PFM reforms. Training for the development of capacity in the PIM system is tricky in Ukraine. It is becoming clear that due to the dynamic nature of the Ukrainian civil service, officials are rapidly moving from one area of the Administration to another.
