Suchergebnisse

The author looks into the structure & explanation of the socioeconomic expectations of young people regarding Croatia's future drawing on the theoretical framework & operational model of historical consciousness & on findings of a 1995 international study of 27 European countries & a replication of the study in Croatia in 2000. The findings show that the structure of such expectations may be explained by a universal factor of sociopolitical pessimistic/optimistic expectations of Croatia's future. This structure is in line with the expectations of young people from other European states concerning the future of their respective countries. Unlike in other European states, the Croatian youth in 1995 were optimistic in their socioeconomic assessments. The same conclusion was reached in 2000, the only exception being the pupils of Serbian extraction from the Danube region; this group represents the most pessimistic group at both levels of comparison. The perceptions of the present can account for 8%-20% of the variance of the variable of the expectations of young people. There is a significant decrease in the predictive power of the ethnic-religious value orientation, while the influence of attributing material differences to injustice in the society is constant. Concerning interethnic differences in the Danube region, it seems that the opposite expectations are partly due to the identical ideological ethnocentric pattern, indicative of the perpetuation of the attitudes generated during the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia. The notions of the past can explain 12%-13% of the variant of the criterion variable. In most samples, the best single predictor is the critical attitude toward democracy as a historical product, with the exception of the pupils of Serbian extraction in the Danube region; together with other predictors, this indicates that the expectations about Croatia's future of these youth are not based on the perception of democratic processes. Also, they reflect a lower level of confidence in the democratic institutions of the Republic of Croatia. 4 Tables, 2 Figures, 16 References. Adapted from the source document.