Suchergebnisse

With this paper we study the impact of decentralization on turnout. We test the hypotheses that decentralization increases turnout in subnational elections, lowers participation in national elections, and reduces the gap between regional and national arenas. A comparative cross-national analysis does not show any significant effect of decentralization on turnout in national elections. But we take a closer look at two countries, Canada and Spain, where fiscal decentralization has taken place during the past decades. In both countries the empirical evidence suggests that decentralization has contributed to reducing the turnout gap between regional and national elections.

The author used a random sample of 57 cities with populations between 25,000 and 1,000,000 to predict the impact of the form of government on voter turnout in city elections, controlling for socioeconomic variables and the timing of elections. Results show that voter turnout is dependent on the form of government. Political cities have the highest voter turnout, while administrative cities have the lowest voter turnout. By comparing structural differences between cities with different forms of government, the author determined that the direct election of the mayor, the expansion of mayoral executive authority, the separation of political power between the mayor and council, and/or the full-time status of the mayor and council are likely contributors to higher voter turnout in city elections.

We set up a model of elections or referendums with two alternatives to study how voter turnout and election outcomes are affected by the publication of exit polls on election day. We find that the introduction of an exit poll influences the incentive to vote both before and after the poll is published, but the signs of the effects are generally ambiguous. The fact that exit polls influence the incentive to vote before they are even published is sometimes overlooked in the debate on their desirability. We show that this can lead to premature conclusions about the impact of exit polls on election outcomes.

This paper studies the impact of term limits on voter turnout, using the recent introduction of term limits at the local government level in Portugal as a natural experiment. Although instrumental, expressive, and information-based theories of voter participation imply effects of term limits on turnout, this is clearly an under-researched topic. Applying a difference-in-differences approach to data at both the municipal and parish levels, we find strong evidence that the introduction of term limits increased voter participation. Our results contrast with previous findings for California and demonstrate that more re search on this topic is clearly necessary. ; Compete 2020, Portugal 2020, Feder, FCT ...

After the 2009 referendum on a proposed change to the Danish Law of Succession, it was widely claimed that the early publication of exit poll results changed the rate of turnout and eventually the outcome. We investigate this claim and contribute to the wider debate on the implications of exit polls by setting up and analyzing a formal model. We find that the introduction of an exit poll influences the incentive to vote both before and after the poll is published, but the signs of the effects are generally ambiguous. The observation that exit polls influence the incentive to vote even before they are published is often overlooked. We show that this can lead to premature conclusions about the impact of exit polls on electoral outcomes. In particular, in cases such as the Danish referendum where it clearly appears that exit polls changed the outcome, it could well be that the outcome would have been the same had there been no exit polls. [Reprinted by permission of Sage Publications Ltd., copyright holder.]