This paper offers a comprehensive analysis of poverty in India. It shows that regardless of which of the two official poverty lines we use, we see a steady decline in poverty in all states and for all social and religious groups.Accelerated growth between fiscal years 2004–2005 and 2009–2010 also led to an accelerated decline in poverty rates. Moreover, the decline in poverty rates during these years has been sharper for the socially disadvantaged groups relative to upper caste groups so that we now observe a narrowing of the gap in the poverty rates between the two sets of social groups. The paper also provides a discussion of the recent controversies in India regarding the choice of poverty lines.
This paper offers a comprehensive analysis of poverty in India. It shows that regardless of which of the two official poverty lines we use, we see a steady decline in poverty in all states and for all social and religious groups.Accelerated growth between fiscal years 2004–2005 and 2009–2010 also led to an accelerated decline in poverty rates. Moreover, the decline in poverty rates during these years has been sharper for the socially disadvantaged groups relative to upper caste groups so that we now observe a narrowing of the gap in the poverty rates between the two sets of social groups. The paper also provides a discussion of the recent controversies in India regarding the choice of poverty lines.
"Its GDP having touched $2.6 trillion, India is poised to become the world's third largest economy in less than a decade. In doing so, it will have moved one step closer to reclaiming its pre-1820s glory when it accounted for one-sixth of the global output and ranked second in economic size. This rapid movement in the absolute size of the economy will be insufficient, however, to bring prosperity to India's vast population. Today, 44% of the country's workforce remains in agriculture and another 42% in tiny enterprises with fewer than 20 workers. Labour productivity of both sets of workers remains low and they live overwhelmingly on subsistence-level incomes. This book lays down a concise roadmap of reforms that would help the country transform and create well-paid jobs in industry and services for those with limited or no skills. It argues that creation of good jobs requires the emergence of medium and large enterprises in industry and services, especially labour-intensive sectors such as apparel, footwear and other light manufactures. India needs policies conducive to the growth of firms from small to medium, medium to large and large to larger still. They must compete in the global marketplace to help increase India's share in the world export market from less than 2% currently to 5 to 6% in a decade. Such policies include greater outward orientation, more flexible land, labour and capital markets, concerted effort to improve the quality of higher education, faster urbanization and improved governance at all levels."
This volume offers a rousing defense of pro-free-trade policies and their benefits for developing countries. Through cross-country evidence and detailed case studies, Arvind Panagariya demonstrates the need for trade openness for sustained growth and poverty alleviation.
Digital Revolution has been sweeping across the world over the last three decades. This revolution has spread far more rapidly, especially in developing countries, than was the case with either the Industrial or Agricultural Revolution. Indeed, the spread has been so rapid that China has become its major driver with India emerging as one as well. This paper is devoted to two aspects of the Digital Revolution as it impacts India: financial technology or fintech, and innovation and entrepreneurship. As in other countries, the spread of digital technologies has led to a dramatic transformation of financial infrastructure in India. On the one hand, this has improved efficiency and on the other it has led to increased financial inclusion. The government's payments system has evolved to a point that it can make payments directly to individuals and firms through bank accounts. Individuals are seamlessly able to transfer funds from their bank accounts to those of others. Businesses and customers can transact digitally in real time. Digital technologies have also helped democratize innovation and entrepreneurship. Unlike conventional technologies, digital innovations are less costly to commercialize on average. Scaling up of conventional innovations requires a large volume of investment. In contrast, many digital innovations lend themselves to scaling up at low costs. As a result, in the digital space, innovators themselves are often seen as turning into entrepreneurs. The sharp division between innovators and entrepreneurs that existed in the past has greatly diminished. I divide the paper into three parts. Part 1 focuses on the spread of financial technologies in India. Part 2 considers how the digital revolution has helped spawn and transform the nature of entrepreneurship in the country. Part 3 offers some concluding remarks.
In May 2014, a new government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office in India. In three decades, this was the first government to win an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha, the Lower House of the parliament. It was also the first time in India's history that the winning candidate had contested the national election predominantly on the platform of economic development. "Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas," which translates as "Collective Effort, Inclusive Development," was the catch phrase Modi used to capture the imagination of the voters. After three and a half years under what has come to be called Modinomics, where does the Indian economy stand? Although Indian print and electronic media ceaselessly run debates on different economic issues, we lack a unified account and assessment of the progress made by the government. The present paper attempts to fill this critical gap. In Section 1, I begin with a brief account of the economy following the 1991 economic reforms with special attention paid to its state just before the Modi government took office. In Section 2, I discuss the overall performance of the economy including the GDP growth, macroeconomic developments and progress in attracting foreign direct investment. In Section 3, I offer an account of the key process and policy reforms introduced by the government. The discussion here shows that this has been a very active government, seeking change in wide variety of areas. In Section 4, I assess the criticisms of the government in three key areas: lack of robustness of growth; poor record of job creation; and ill effects of demonetization. In Section 5, I conclude the paper.
This paper develops three major themes. First, the atmosphere of gloom around the multilateral trading system due to dim prospects of a successful conclusion of the Doha Round notwithstanding, global trade regime remains open and the institution in charge of it, the World Trade Organization, is in sound health. If anything, the Doha Round has been a victim of its own success: considerable de facto liberalization in agriculture has been achieved since the launch of the round. Second, to secure the future of the multilateral trading system, it is nevertheless crucial that the Doha Round is brought to a conclusion even if in a highly diluted form. The damage to the system from an outright failure will be very substantial. Finally, closing the Doha Round will require the United States leading the negotiations. Suggestions that as the largest merchandise exporter, China should now take the lead are frivolous.
