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Cover -- CONTENTS -- MEXICO'S STRUCTURAL REFORM AGENDA: EARLY SIGNS OF SUCCESS -- A. Introduction -- B. Energy Reform -- C. Telecommunications Reform -- D. Other Reforms -- E. Conclusion -- References -- FIGURES -- 1. Real GDP Per Capita Growth -- 2. Worsening External Environment -- 3. Oil Production Forecast Vintages -- 4. Electricity Generation by Source in 2016 -- 5. Transmission and Distribution Losses -- 6. Electricity Prices for Industrial End-Users -- 7. Oil vs. Gas in Electricity Generation -- 8. Investment in the Energy Sector -- 9. FDI in Telecommunications Sector -- 10. Evolution of Market Shares in Mexico's Telecoms Market -- 11. Telecommunications Prices -- 12. Access to Telecommunication Services -- 13. Telecom Sector Growth -- 14. Fiscal Revenue -- 15. Employment -- 16. Credit Depth and Financial Inclusion -- STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES AND RESOURCE MISALLOCATION IN MEXICO -- A. Introduction -- B. Theoretical Background -- C. Data -- D. TFP Gains from Reducing Resource Misallocation in Mexico -- E. Regression Analysis -- F. Conclusion -- References -- FIGURES -- 1. Potential TFP Gains from Reducing Resource Misallocation by State and Sector -- 2. Variation in Resource Misallocation across Mexican States -- TABLES -- 1. Baseline and Robustness -- 2. Alternative Controls -- ANNEX -- I. Variable Definitions and Sources.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT -- RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND POLICIES -- OUTLOOK AND RISKS -- THE FLEXIBLE CREDIT LINE AND REVIEW OF QUALIFICATION -- SAFEGUARDS ASSESSMENT -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. Trade and Financial Linkages Between Mexico and the United States -- 2. The Updated External Economic Stress Index -- FIGURES -- 1. Evolution of Selected Financial Market Indicators -- 2. Real Sector -- 3. Labor Market Indicators -- 4. Prices and Inflation -- 5. Financial Sector -- 6. Fiscal Sector -- 7. External Sector -- 8. Reserve Coverage in an International Perspective, 2016 -- 9. Nonfinancial Corporate Sector -- 10. Banking System -- 11. Qualification Criteria -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic, Financial, and Social Indicators -- 2. Statement of Operations of the Public Sector, Authorities' Presentation -- 3. Statement of Operations of the Public Sector, GFSM 2001 Presentation -- 4. Summary Balance of Payments -- 5. Financial Soundness Indicators -- 6. Financial Indicators and Measures of External Vulnerabilities -- 7. Baseline Medium-Term Projections -- 8. Capacity to Repay Indicators -- APPENDICES -- I. External Debt Sustainability Analysis -- II. Public Debt Sustainability Analysis.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- THE STRUCTURE AND TRENDS IN THE BAHAMAS' OFFSHORE SECTOR -- A. Introduction -- B. Offshore Financial Sector Structure -- C. Global Regulatory Initiatives and the Bahamian OFC -- D. The Bahamas OFC and the Real Economy -- E. Conclusions -- References -- TABLES -- 1. Structure of the Offshore Sector in the Caribbean as of 2015 -- 2. Caribbean OFCs Contribution to Jobs and Revenue.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- PARAGUAY'S PENSION AND HEALTH SYSTEMS -- A. Introduction -- B. Pensions -- C. Health Expenditures -- D. Financial Sector Linkages -- E. Conclusion -- References -- BOX -- 1. Long-Term Health Spending Outlook: Details -- FIGURES -- 1. Key Demographic Trends -- 2. Health Expenditures Relative to Key Characteristics -- 3. Efficiency Analysis -- 4. Financial Assets and Liabilities, December 2015 -- TABLE -- 1. Contributory Pension Programs in Paraguay -- APPENDIX -- I. Additional Estimates and Source Data.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT AND RECENT DEVELOPMENTS -- OUTLOOK AND RISKS -- REVIEW OF QUALIFICATION -- SAFEGUARDS ASSESSMENT -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOX -- 1. Updated External Economic Stress Index -- FIGURES -- 1. Recent Economic Developments -- 2. External Sector Developments -- 3. FCL Qualification Criteria -- 4. Reserve Coverage in International Perspective -- 5. Indicators of Institutional Quality -- 6. External Debt Sustainability: Bound Tests -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators -- 2A. Summary Balance of Payments (In millions of US) -- 2B. Summary Balance of Payments (In percent of GDP) -- 3. Operations of the Central Government -- 4. Operations of the Combined Public Sector -- 5. Monetary Indicators -- 6. Medium-Term Outlook -- 7. Financial Soundness Indicators -- 8. Indicators of External Vulnerability -- 9. Public Sector Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) - Baseline Scenario -- 10. Public DSA - Composition of Public Debt and Alternative Scenarios -- 11. External Debt Sustainability Framework, 2012.22 -- 12. Indicators of Fund Credit, 2016.22.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT -- ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE EARTHQUAKE -- OUTLOOK AND RISKS -- POLICY ISSUES AND DISCUSSIONS -- ACCESS AND CAPACITY TO REPAY -- STAFF APPRAISA -- BOX -- 1. The April Earthquake -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2008-21 -- 2. Operations of the Nonfinancial Public Sector (Net Accounting) (Millions of U.S. dollars), 2008-21 -- 3. Operations of the Nonfinancial Public Sector (Net Accounting) (Percent of GDP), 2008-21 -- 4. Nonfinancial Public Sector Financing, 2008-21 -- 5. Balance of Payments, 2008-21 -- 6. Monetary Survey, 2008-21

Cover -- CONTENTS -- A BUDDING BUT SUBDUED RECOVERY -- PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION REMAINS STRONG -- RESHAPING FISCAL POLICIES TO SUPPORT GROWTH -- A. Improving Taxation Efficiency -- B. Strengthening the Social Safety Net -- C. Transforming the Public Sector to Support Growth -- D. Other Structural Fiscal Reforms -- STRENGTHENING MONETARY OPERATIONS -- ENTRENCHING FINANCIAL SECTOR RESILIENCE -- ACHIEVING HIGHER GROWTH -- PROGRAM ISSUES -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. Pass-Through of Domestic Fuel Prices to Inflation -- 2. Potential Spillovers from Brexit to Jamaica

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT -- RECENT DEVELOPMENTS -- OUTLOOK AND RISKS -- POLICY DISCUSSIONS -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. Implementation of 2015 Article IV Recommendations -- 2. Fiscal Adjustment Effort Over the Past Five Years -- 3. International Business and Financial Sector Developments -- FIGURES -- 1. Real Sector Dvelopments -- 2. Fiscal Sector Developments -- 3. External Sector Developments -- 4. Monetary Sector Developments -- 5. Financial Sector Developments -- 6. Social Development Indicators -- 7. Competitiveness Indicators -- TABLES

Cover -- CONTENTS -- RECENT DEVELOPMENTS -- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND RISKS -- POLICY DISCUSSIONS -- A. Near-Term Policy Mix -- B. Medium and Long-Term Policy Challenges -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. Key Elements of the Anti-Corruption Strategy -- 2. Food Price Inflation -- 3. Financial Integrity in Guatemala -- 4. Poverty, Inequality, and Fiscal Redistribution -- 5. Financial Inclusion, Growth, and Inequality -- TABLES -- 1. Potential Output Growth and Output Gap Estimates -- 2. CAPDR: Financial Soundness Indicators -- 3. Financial Sector Heat Map -- 4. Guatemala: Medium-Term Outlook

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Brazil's growth has decelerated in recent years. The boost from decade-old reforms, expanding labor income, and favorable external conditions, which enabled consumption and credit-led growth and underpinned sustained poverty reduction, has lost steam. Investment has been sluggish, reflecting eroding competitiveness, a worsening business environment, and lower commodity prices. The IMF staff projects negative output growth of 1 percent in 2015, with some drag from tighter fiscal and monetary policies and from the cuts in investment by Petrobras

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CANADA'S NON-ENERGY EXPORTS: ASSESSMENT OF POST-CRISIS GROWTH PERFORMANCE -- A. Context -- B. Framework -- C. Results -- References -- APPENDIX -- 1. Data Appendix -- TABLES -- 1. Canada's Non-Energy Export Performance: Model-based Assessment -- 2. Long-Run Export Elasticity: Before and After GFC -- FIGURES -- 1. Canada's Non-Energy Exports -- 2. Canada's Non-Energy Export Elasticity -- NEUTRAL RATE OF INTEREST IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY: THE CASE OF CANADA -- A. Context and Motivation -- B. The Neutral Rate of Interest -- C. Methodology -- D. Main Results: Assessing Monetary Policy Stance and the Determinants of the Neutral Rate -- E. Conclusions -- References -- APPENDICES -- 1. Figures -- 2. Data and Definitions -- ANCHORING SUSTAINABLE FISCAL POLICY: A NEW FISCAL RULE IN CANADA -- A. Why a Fiscal Rule for Canada? -- B. Experience with Fiscal Rules in Advanced Economies -- C. Which Fiscal Rule Framework for Canada? -- D. Fiscal Rules Design Features and Supporting Institutions -- E. Conclusion -- References -- BOX -- 1. A Conceptual Framework for an Expenditure Rule with a Debt-Based Error Correction Mechanism -- TABLES -- 1. Comparative Performance of Alternative Fiscal Rules for Canada, 2016-20 -- 2. Escape Clauses in Advanced Economies -- FIGURE -- 1. Simulated Debt Path Under Various Fiscal Rules, 2013-2023 (percent of GDP)

Cover Page -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Contents -- Box -- Table -- Figures -- Table -- Figure -- Box -- Figure -- Figure -- Table -- Figure -- Tables -- Annexes -- A. Potential Output Estimates -- 1. Potential Output Growth and Output Gap Estimates -- B. Estimating the Impact of Intel Exit -- C. Labor Markets and Inequality -- D. Electricity sector -- 1. Methodologies for Potential Output Estimates -- References -- I. Selected Real Sector Issues -- A. Trade Linkages -- 1. Trade Linkages -- B. Real Growth Spillovers -- 2. Costa Rica and Selected Trading Partners-full title -- C. Fiscal Spillovers -- D. Financial Spillovers -- E. Monetary Policy Spillovers (the Effect of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization) -- 1. Vulnerability Indicators -- 3. United States: Three Scenarios of Tapering Off (FSGM simulations) -- 4. The Impact of U.S. Tapering Off (FSGM simulations) -- References -- II. Cross-Border Linkages and Spillovers -- 1. Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability -- References -- III. Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability and Medium-Term Sustainability -- A. Introduction -- B. Baseline Simulation Results -- C. Sensitivity Analysis -- 1. Central Bank of Costa Rica: Sensitivity Analysis -- 1. Balance Sheet Equations -- References -- IV. The Central Bank Net's Worth -- A. Monetary Policy Stance -- B. Pass-through from Exchange Rate Depreciation to Inflation -- References -- V. Monetary Policy and Inflation -- A. Background -- B. Dangers of Exchange Rate Inflexibility and the Advantages of Flexibility -- C. Moving Toward Exchange Rate Flexibility: Experiences and Lessons from Other Countries -- 1. Historical Experiences with Transitions to Exchange Rate Flexibility -- D. Assessing Costa Rica's Preparedness to Float -- 1. Extent of Preparedness for Transitioning to Greater Flexibility: Before the Full Float -- References

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThis is the final review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. Theprogram contributed to maintaining macroeconomic stability, and there was progress on structural reforms. The authorities intend to request a successor arrangement under the ECF. A new finance minister was appointed in April; uncertainly remains on the timing of elections. Preliminary data suggest that GDP in FY2014 grew by 3.5-4 percent, while inflation increased slightly to about 5 percent. An increase in fuel prices (in October) should result in fiscal savings of at least 1 percent of GDP duri

KEY ISSUESOutlook and risks: Growth is projected to reach 2.4 percent in 2014, while core inflationremains close to the target. Strong export demand has boosted manufacturingproduction and employment, and construction activity is starting to recover, supportedby an expansion of public infrastructure spending. The main external risk is a rise incapital flow volatility caused by uncertainties related to the unwinding of the U.S.monetary policy stimulus or heightened geopolitical tensions. The main domestic risk isthe effectiveness of implementation of the structural reforms.Structural Reforms: M

Cover Page -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Contents -- Figures -- Tables -- Appendix -- Appendix Figures -- Boxes -- Figures -- Tables -- A. Current Challenges in the Energy Industry -- B. Most Significant Reform Effort in 75 Years -- C. Impact on Energy Production -- D. Resource Blessed -- E. How Long Does it Take? -- F. Production Scenarios -- 1. Illustrative Baseline Scenarios -- 2. Illustrative Downside Scenarios -- G. How Much Investment and FDI? -- H. Natural Gas Imports and Transport -- I. Electricity Reform -- J. Conclusion -- References -- The Impact of Mexico's Energy Reform on Hydrocarbons Production -- A. Introduction -- B. The Mexican Manufacturing Sector Since NAFTA -- C. The Energy Reform: How Much of a Boost for Mexican Manufacturing? -- 1. Energy Consumption (in Petajoules) of the Industrial Sector -- 2. Estimates of Elasticities of Manufacturing Output to Energy Prices. -- 3. Estimates of Elasticities When Energy Inputs Enter Separately -- 4. Differential Effects Across Subsectors -- D. Are There Additional Indirect Effects Through Spillovers? -- E. Concluding Remarks and Policy Implications -- I. Panel VAR model -- 1. Impulse Response Functions to a Rise in Electricity Prices with Subsector Spillovers -- 2. Impulse Response Functions to a Rise in Electricity Prices with Regional Spillovers -- References -- Made In Mexico: The Energy Reform and Manufacturing Output -- A. Introduction -- B. Recent Episodes of Extreme Capital Movements in Mexico -- 1. Mexico: Extreme Capital Flow Episodes -- C. Behavior of Foreign and Domestic Mutual Funds in Mexico -- 2. Evidence of Herding (net sellers as a percent of total funds) -- 3. Evidence of Herding (based on the herding index) -- 1a. Bond Funds: Evidence of Positive Feedback Trading Behavior -- 1b. Equity Funds: Evidence of Positive Feedback Trading Behavior.