Multi-step ahead inflow forecasting has a critical role to play in reservoir operation and management in Taiwan during typhoons as statutory legislation requires a minimum of 3-hours warning to be issued before any reservoir releases are made. However, the complex spatial and temporal heterogeneity of typhoon rainfall, coupled with a remote and mountainous physiographic context makes the development of real-time rainfall-runoff models that can accurately predict reservoir inflow several hours ahead of time challenging. Consequently, there is an urgent, operational requirement for models that can enhance reservoir inflow prediction at forecast horizons of more than 3-hours. In this paper we develop a novel semi-distributed, data-driven, rainfall-runoff model for the Shihmen catchment, north Taiwan. A suite of Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System solutions is created using various combinations of auto-regressive, spatially-lumped radar and point-based rain gauge predictors. Different levels of spatially-aggregated radar-derived rainfall data are used to generate 4, 8 and 12 sub-catchment input drivers. In general, the semi-distributed radar rainfall models outperform their less complex counterparts in predictions of reservoir inflow at lead-times greater than 3-hours. Performance is found to be optimal when spatial aggregation is restricted to 4 sub-catchments, with up to 30% improvements in the performance over lumped and point-based models being evident at 5-hour lead times. The potential benefits of applying semi-distributed, data-driven models in reservoir inflow modelling specifically, and hydrological modelling more generally, is thus demonstrated.
Many state‐of‐the‐art climate models do not simulate the Atlantic Water (AW) layer in the Arctic Ocean realistically enough to address the question of future Arctic Atlantification and its associated feedback. Biases concerning the AW layer are commonly related to insufficient resolution and excessive mixing in the ocean component as well as unrealistic Atlantic‐Arctic Ocean exchange. Based on sensitivity experiments with FESOM1.4, the ocean–sea‐ice component of the global climate model AWI‐CM1, we show that even if all impediments for simulating AW realistically are addressed in the ocean model, new biases in the AW layer develop after coupling to an atmosphere model. By replacing the wind forcing over the Arctic with winds from a coupled simulation we show that a common bias in the atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) gradient and its associated wind bias lead to differences in surface stress and Ekman transport. Fresh surface water gets redistributed leading to changes in halosteric height distribution. Those changes lead to strengthening of the anticyclonic surface circulation in the Canadian Basin, so that the deep counterflow carrying warm AW gets reversed and a warm bias in the Canadian Basin develops. The SLP and anticyclonic wind bias in the Nordic Seas weaken the cyclonic circulation leading to reduced AW transport into the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait but increased AW transport through the Barents Sea Opening. These effects together lead to a cold bias in the Eurasian Basin. An underestimation of sea ice concentration can significantly amplify the induced ocean biases. ; Plain Language Summary: Coupled global climate models are used to predict anthropogenic climate change along with its impacts. The Arctic has experienced amplified warming in the recent decades compared to global mean warming and therefore is one region of intense climate research. In this context Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean has become a high priority topic. Atlantification describes the increasing impact of oceanic heat from the Atlantic Water (AW) layer of the Arctic Ocean on the sea ice cover. In climate models, the direction and strength of simulated AW circulation around the Arctic Ocean is known to be sensitive to ocean grid resolution, parametrization, boundary and surface forcing or a combination thereof. Here we show that biases in the atmospheric component of climate models can interrupt and even reverse the simulated AW circulation at depth. Such biases can be further amplified by a negative bias in simulated sea ice cover. This study shows how these surface biases can negatively impact the deep ocean circulation. ; Key Points: Many state‐of‐the‐art climate models fail to simulate the properties of the Atlantic Water layer in the Arctic Ocean realistically. Biases in Arctic sea level pressure and surface winds in atmosphere models can reverse Atlantic Water circulation. The underestimation of sea‐ice cover amplifies this problem further. ; European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation program ; Helmholtz Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318
A severe dieback of Acer pseudoplatanus trees was noticed in planted forest stands in northern Italy in 2010. Affected trees showed collar rot and aerial bleeding cankers along the stems, leading to crown dieback and eventually death. An unknown Phytophthora species was consistently isolated from necrotic bark and xylem tissue and from rhizosphere soil. Based on its unique combination of morphological and physiological characters and phylogenetic analysis, this new taxon is here described as Phytophthora acerina sp. nov. Phylogenetic analysis of ITS, cox1 and beta-tubulin gene regions demonstrated that P. acerina is unique and forms a separate cluster within the 'P. citricola complex', closely related to P. plurivora. Phytophthora acerina is homothallic with smooth-walled oogonia, thick-walled, mostly aplerotic oospores with a high abortion rate, paragynous antheridia, and persistent, morphologically variable semipapillate sporangia. Four to 5-week-old cultures produced globose to subglobose, appressoria-like and coralloid hyphal swellings and characteristic stromata-like hyphal aggregations. Optimum and maximum temperatures for growth are 25 degrees C and 32 degrees C, respectively. Genetic uniformity of all 15 studied isolates and the apparent absence of this species in the extensive surveys of nurseries, forests and seminatural ecosystems conducted in the previous two decades across Europe indicate a recent clonal introduction to northern Italy. Under-bark inoculation tests demonstrated high aggressiveness of P. acerina to A. pseudoplatanus indicating that this pathogen might be a serious risk to maple plantations and forests in Europe. ; Italia Nostra Onlus - Centro della Forestazione Urbana (CFU); Scottish Government ; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Studies and reports from around the world document that women are experiencing disrespect and abuse during childbirth, both within and outside hospitals. The abuse described ranges from neglect and discrimination to verbal insults, insufficient information being provided before an intervention or procedure, and even physical violence. Disrespect and abuse can lead to a traumatic birth experience and those witnessing obstetric violence may also be traumatised. This can result in serious long-term health impacts. The German Society of Midwifery Science (DGHWi) considers it important for midwives to accept responsibility for any actions or inactions on their part that may be disrespectful and abusive, whether wilfully or otherwise. The DGHWi regards it as necessary for a national health strategy to be formulated, aimed at ascertaining the prevalence of disrespect and abuse during childbirth in Germany and developing strategies for prevention in order to guarantee woman- and family-centred and human rights-based obstetric care in Germany. ; Weltweit dokumentieren Studien und Berichte, dass Frauen im Rahmen der Geburt in und außerhalb von geburtshilflichen Einrichtungen Respektlosigkeit und Gewalt erfahren. Die Berichte reichen von Vernachlässigung und Diskriminierung über verbale Verletzungen, ungenügende Aufklärung vor Eingriffen bis hin zu körperlicher Gewalt. Respektlosigkeit und Gewalt können dazu führen, dass die Geburt als traumatisch erlebt wird. Auch Personen, die Zeugen von Gewalt werden, können traumatisiert werden. Dies kann zu schwerwiegenden und langanhaltenden gesundheitlichen Belastungen führen. Die Deutsche Gesellschaft für Hebammenwissenschaft (DGHWi) sieht es als wichtig an, dass sich Hebammen der Verantwortung für ihre Handlungen und Unterlassungen stellen, die - absichtlich oder unabsichtlich - respektlos und gewaltvoll sein können. Die DGHWi erachtet eine nationale gesundheitspolitische Strategie für erforderlich, in deren Rahmen die Prävalenz von Respektlosigkeit und Gewalt während der Geburt ...