AbstractAmbient air pollution remains the major environmental cause of disease. Accurate assessment of population exposure and small-scale spatial exposure variations over long time periods is essential for epidemiological studies. We estimated annual exposure to fine and coarse particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10), and nitrogen oxides (NOx, NO2) with high spatial resolution to examine time trends 2000‒2018, compliance with the WHO Air Quality Guidelines, and assess the health impact. The modelling area covered six metropolitan areas in Sweden with a combined population of 5.5 million. Long-range transported air pollutants were modelled using a chemical transport model with bias correction, and locally emitted air pollutants using source-specific Gaussian-type dispersion models at resolutions up to 50 × 50 m. The modelled concentrations were validated using quality-controlled monitoring data. Lastly, we estimated the reduction in mortality associated with the decrease in population exposure. The validity of modelled air pollutant concentrations was good (R2 for PM2.5 0.84, PM10 0.61, and NOx 0.87). Air pollution exposure decreased substantially, from a population weighted mean exposure to PM2.5 of 12.2 µg m−3 in 2000 to 5.4 µg m−3 in 2018. We estimated that the decreased exposure was associated with a reduction of 2719 (95% CI 2046–3055) premature deaths annually. However, in 2018, 65%, 8%, and 42% of residents in the modelled areas were still exposed to PM2.5, PM10, or NO2 levels, respectively, that exceeded the current WHO Air Quality Guidelines for annual average exposure. This emphasises the potential public health benefits of reductions in air pollution emissions.
Abstract High-resolution assessment of historical levels is essential for assessing the health effects of ambient air pollution in the large Indian population. The diversity of geography, weather patterns, and progressive urbanization, combined with a sparse ground monitoring network makes it challenging to accurately capture the spatiotemporal patterns of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in India. We developed a model for daily average ambient PM2.5 between 2008 and 2020 based on monitoring data, meteorology, land use, satellite observations, and emissions inventories. Daily average predictions at each 1 km × 1 km grid from each learner were ensembled using a Gaussian process regression with anisotropic smoothing over spatial coordinates, and regression calibration was used to account for exposure error. Cross-validating by leaving monitors out, the ensemble model had an R2 of 0.86 at the daily level in the validation data and outperformed each component learner (by 5–18%). Annual average levels in different zones ranged between 39.7 μg/m3 (interquartile range: 29.8–46.8) in 2008 and 30.4 μg/m3 (interquartile range: 22.7–37.2) in 2020, with a cross-validated (CV)-R2 of 0.94 at the annual level. Overall mean absolute daily errors (MAE) across the 13 years were between 14.4 and 25.4 μg/m3. We obtained high spatial accuracy with spatial R2 greater than 90% and spatial MAE ranging between 7.3–16.5 μg/m3 with relatively better performance in urban areas at low and moderate elevation. We have developed an important validated resource for studying PM2.5 at a very fine spatiotemporal resolution, which allows us to study the health effects of PM2.5 across India and to identify areas with exceedingly high levels.
In: Strak , M , Weinmayr , G , Rodopoulou , S , Chen , J , De Hoogh , K , Andersen , Z J , Atkinson , R , Bauwelinck , M , Bekkevold , T , Bellander , T , Boutron-Ruault , M C , Brandt , J , Cesaroni , G , Concin , H , Fecht , D , Forastiere , F , Gulliver , J , Hertel , O , Hoffmann , B , Hvidtfeldt , U A , Janssen , N A H , Jöckel , K H , Jørgensen , J T , Ketzel , M , Klompmaker , J O , Lager , A , Leander , K , Liu , S , Ljungman , P , Magnusson , P K E , Mehta , A J , Nagel , G , Oftedal , B , Pershagen , G , Peters , A , Raaschou-Nielsen , O , Renzi , M , Rizzuto , D , Van Der Schouw , Y T , Schramm , S , Severi , G , Sigsgaard , T , Sørensen , M , Stafoggia , M , Tjønneland , A , Monique Verschuren , W , Vienneau , D , Wolf , K , Katsouyanni , K , Brunekreef , B , Hoek , G & Samoli , E 2021 , ' Long term exposure to low level air pollution and mortality in eight European cohorts within the ELAPSE project : Pooled analysis ' , The BMJ , vol. 374 , n1904 . https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n1904
Objective To investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality, focusing on associations below current European Union, United States, and World Health Organization standards and guidelines. Design Pooled analysis of eight cohorts. Setting Multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) in six European countries. Participants 325 367 adults from the general population recruited mostly in the 1990s or 2000s with detailed lifestyle data. Stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the associations between air pollution and mortality. Western Europe-wide land use regression models were used to characterise residential air pollution concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and black carbon. Main outcome measures Deaths due to natural causes and cause specific mortality. Results Of 325 367 adults followed-up for an average of 19.5 years, 47 131 deaths were observed. Higher exposure to PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon was associated with significantly increased risk of almost all outcomes. An increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 13% (95% confidence interval 10.6% to 15.5%) increase in natural deaths; the corresponding figure for a 10 μg/m 3 increase in nitrogen dioxide was 8.6% (7% to 10.2%). Associations with PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon remained significant at low concentrations. For participants with exposures below the US standard of 12 μg/m 3 an increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 29.6% (14% to 47.4%) increase in natural deaths. Conclusions Our study contributes to the evidence that outdoor air pollution is associated with mortality even at low pollution levels below the current European and North American standards and WHO guideline values. These findings are therefore an important contribution to the debate about revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards, and future assessments by the Global Burden of Disease.
In: Strak , M , Weinmayr , G , Rodopoulou , S , Chen , J , de Hoogh , K , Andersen , Z J , Atkinson , R , Bauwelinck , M , Bekkevold , T , Bellander , T , Boutron-Ruault , M-C , Brandt , J , Cesaroni , G , Concin , H , Fecht , D , Forastiere , F , Gulliver , J , Hertel , O , Hoffmann , B , Hvidtfeldt , U A , Janssen , N A H , Jockel , K-H , Jorgensen , J , Ketzel , M , Klompmaker , J , Lager , A , Leander , K , Liu , S , Ljungman , P , Magnusson , P K E , Mehta , A J , Nagel , G , Oftedal , B , Pershagen , G , Peters , A , Raaschou-Nielsen , O , Renzi , M , Rizzuto , D , Schouw , Y T V D , Schramm , S , Severi , G , Sigsgaard , T , Sørensen , M , Stafoggia , M , Tjonneland , A , Verschuren , W M M , Vienneau , D , Wolf , K , Katsouyanni , K , Brunekreef , B , Hoek , G & Samoli , E 2021 , ' Long term exposure to low level air pollution and mortality in eight European cohorts within the ELAPSE project : pooled analysis ' , B M J , vol. 374 , 1904 . https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n1904
OBJECTIVE To investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality, focusing on associations below current European Union, United States, and World Health Organization standards and guidelines. DESIGN Pooled analysis of eight cohorts. SETTING Multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) in six European countries. PARTICIPANTS 325 367 adults from the general population recruited mostly in the 1990s or 2000s with detailed lifestyle data. Stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the associations between air pollution and mortality. Western Europe-wide land use regression models were used to characterise residential air pollution concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and black carbon. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Deaths due to natural causes and cause specific mortality. RESULTS Of 325 367 adults followed-up for an average of 19.5 years, 47 131 deaths were observed. Higher exposure to PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon was associated with significantly increased risk of almost all outcomes. An increase of 5 mu g/m(3) in PM2.5 was associated with 13% (95% confidence interval 10.6% to 15.5%) increase in natural deaths; the corresponding figure for a 10 mu g/m(3) increase in nitrogen dioxide was 8.6% (7% to 10.2%). Associations with PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon remained significant at low concentrations. For participants with exposures below the US standard of 12 mu g/m(3) an increase of 5 mu g/m(3) in PM2.5 was associated with 29.6% (14% to 47.4%) increase in natural deaths. CONCLUSIONS Our study contributes to the evidence that outdoor air pollution is associated with mortality even at low pollution levels below the current European and North American standards and WHO guideline values. These findings are therefore an important contribution to the debate about revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards, and future assessments by the Global Burden of Disease.
OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality, focusing on associations below current European Union, United States, and World Health Organization standards and guidelines. DESIGN: Pooled analysis of eight cohorts. SETTING: Multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) in six European countries. PARTICIPANTS: 325 367 adults from the general population recruited mostly in the 1990s or 2000s with detailed lifestyle data. Stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the associations between air pollution and mortality. Western Europe-wide land use regression models were used to characterise residential air pollution concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and black carbon. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Deaths due to natural causes and cause specific mortality. RESULTS: Of 325 367 adults followed-up for an average of 19.5 years, 47 131 deaths were observed. Higher exposure to PM(2.5), nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon was associated with significantly increased risk of almost all outcomes. An increase of 5 µg/m(3) in PM(2.5) was associated with 13% (95% confidence interval 10.6% to 15.5%) increase in natural deaths; the corresponding figure for a 10 µg/m(3) increase in nitrogen dioxide was 8.6% (7% to 10.2%). Associations with PM(2.5), nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon remained significant at low concentrations. For participants with exposures below the US standard of 12 µg/m(3) an increase of 5 µg/m(3) in PM(2.5) was associated with 29.6% (14% to 47.4%) increase in natural deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Our study contributes to the evidence that outdoor air pollution is associated with mortality even at low pollution levels below the current European and North American standards and WHO guideline values. These findings are therefore an important contribution to the debate about revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards, and future assessments by the Global Burden of Disease.
In: Strak , M , Weinmayr , G , Rodopoulou , S , Chen , J , de Hoogh , K , Andersen , Z J , Atkinson , R , Bauwelinck , M , Bekkevold , T , Bellander , T , Boutron-Ruault , M-C , Brandt , J , Cesaroni , G , Concin , H , Fecht , D , Forastiere , F , Gulliver , J , Hertel , O , Hoffmann , B , Hvidtfeldt , U A , Janssen , N A H , Jöckel , K-H , Jørgensen , J T , Ketzel , M , Klompmaker , J O , Lager , A , Leander , K , Liu , S , Ljungman , P , Magnusson , P K E , Mehta , A J , Nagel , G , Oftedal , B , Pershagen , G , Peters , A , Raaschou-Nielsen , O , Renzi , M , Rizzuto , D , van der Schouw , Y T , Schramm , S , Severi , G , Sigsgaard , T , Sørensen , M , Stafoggia , M , Tjønneland , A , Verschuren , W M M , Vienneau , D , Wolf , K , Katsouyanni , K , Brunekreef , B , Hoek , G & Samoli , E 2021 , ' Long term exposure to low level air pollution and mortality in eight European cohorts within the ELAPSE project : pooled analysis ' , BMJ (Clinical research ed.) , vol. 374 , n1904 . https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n1904
OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality, focusing on associations below current European Union, United States, and World Health Organization standards and guidelines. DESIGN: Pooled analysis of eight cohorts. SETTING: Multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) in six European countries. PARTICIPANTS: 325 367 adults from the general population recruited mostly in the 1990s or 2000s with detailed lifestyle data. Stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the associations between air pollution and mortality. Western Europe-wide land use regression models were used to characterise residential air pollution concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and black carbon. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Deaths due to natural causes and cause specific mortality. RESULTS: Of 325 367 adults followed-up for an average of 19.5 years, 47 131 deaths were observed. Higher exposure to PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon was associated with significantly increased risk of almost all outcomes. An increase of 5 µg/m3 in PM2.5 was associated with 13% (95% confidence interval 10.6% to 15.5%) increase in natural deaths; the corresponding figure for a 10 µg/m3 increase in nitrogen dioxide was 8.6% (7% to 10.2%). Associations with PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon remained significant at low concentrations. For participants with exposures below the US standard of 12 µg/m3 an increase of 5 µg/m3 in PM2.5 was associated with 29.6% (14% to 47.4%) increase in natural deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Our study contributes to the evidence that outdoor air pollution is associated with mortality even at low pollution levels below the current European and North American standards and WHO guideline values. These findings are therefore an important contribution to the debate about revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards, and future assessments by the Global Burden of Disease.
International audience ; Objective To investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality, focusing on associations below current European Union, United States, and World Health Organization standards and guidelines. Design Pooled analysis of eight cohorts. Setting Multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) in six European countries. Participants 325 367 adults from the general population recruited mostly in the 1990s or 2000s with detailed lifestyle data. Stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the associations between air pollution and mortality. Western Europe-wide land use regression models were used to characterise residential air pollution concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and black carbon. Main outcome measures Deaths due to natural causes and cause specific mortality. Results Of 325 367 adults followed-up for an average of 19.5 years, 47 131 deaths were observed. Higher exposure to PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon was associated with significantly increased risk of almost all outcomes. An increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 13% (95% confidence interval 10.6% to 15.5%) increase in natural deaths; the corresponding figure for a 10 μg/m 3 increase in nitrogen dioxide was 8.6% (7% to 10.2%). Associations with PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon remained significant at low concentrations. For participants with exposures below the US standard of 12 μg/m 3 an increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 29.6% (14% to 47.4%) increase in natural deaths. Conclusions Our study contributes to the evidence that outdoor air pollution is associated with mortality even at low pollution levels below the current European and North American standards and WHO guideline values. These findings are therefore an important contribution to the debate about revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards, and future assessments by the Global Burden of Disease.
International audience ; Objective To investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality, focusing on associations below current European Union, United States, and World Health Organization standards and guidelines. Design Pooled analysis of eight cohorts. Setting Multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) in six European countries. Participants 325 367 adults from the general population recruited mostly in the 1990s or 2000s with detailed lifestyle data. Stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the associations between air pollution and mortality. Western Europe-wide land use regression models were used to characterise residential air pollution concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and black carbon. Main outcome measures Deaths due to natural causes and cause specific mortality. Results Of 325 367 adults followed-up for an average of 19.5 years, 47 131 deaths were observed. Higher exposure to PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon was associated with significantly increased risk of almost all outcomes. An increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 13% (95% confidence interval 10.6% to 15.5%) increase in natural deaths; the corresponding figure for a 10 μg/m 3 increase in nitrogen dioxide was 8.6% (7% to 10.2%). Associations with PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon remained significant at low concentrations. For participants with exposures below the US standard of 12 μg/m 3 an increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 29.6% (14% to 47.4%) increase in natural deaths. Conclusions Our study contributes to the evidence that outdoor air pollution is associated with mortality even at low pollution levels below the current European and North American standards and WHO guideline values. These findings are therefore an important contribution to the debate about revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards, and future assessments by the Global Burden of Disease.
International audience ; Objective To investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality, focusing on associations below current European Union, United States, and World Health Organization standards and guidelines. Design Pooled analysis of eight cohorts. Setting Multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) in six European countries. Participants 325 367 adults from the general population recruited mostly in the 1990s or 2000s with detailed lifestyle data. Stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the associations between air pollution and mortality. Western Europe-wide land use regression models were used to characterise residential air pollution concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and black carbon. Main outcome measures Deaths due to natural causes and cause specific mortality. Results Of 325 367 adults followed-up for an average of 19.5 years, 47 131 deaths were observed. Higher exposure to PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon was associated with significantly increased risk of almost all outcomes. An increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 13% (95% confidence interval 10.6% to 15.5%) increase in natural deaths; the corresponding figure for a 10 μg/m 3 increase in nitrogen dioxide was 8.6% (7% to 10.2%). Associations with PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon remained significant at low concentrations. For participants with exposures below the US standard of 12 μg/m 3 an increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 29.6% (14% to 47.4%) increase in natural deaths. Conclusions Our study contributes to the evidence that outdoor air pollution is associated with mortality even at low pollution levels below the current European and North American standards and WHO guideline values. These findings are therefore an important contribution to the debate about revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards, and future assessments by the Global Burden of Disease.
International audience ; Objective To investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality, focusing on associations below current European Union, United States, and World Health Organization standards and guidelines. Design Pooled analysis of eight cohorts. Setting Multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) in six European countries. Participants 325 367 adults from the general population recruited mostly in the 1990s or 2000s with detailed lifestyle data. Stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the associations between air pollution and mortality. Western Europe-wide land use regression models were used to characterise residential air pollution concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and black carbon. Main outcome measures Deaths due to natural causes and cause specific mortality. Results Of 325 367 adults followed-up for an average of 19.5 years, 47 131 deaths were observed. Higher exposure to PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon was associated with significantly increased risk of almost all outcomes. An increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 13% (95% confidence interval 10.6% to 15.5%) increase in natural deaths; the corresponding figure for a 10 μg/m 3 increase in nitrogen dioxide was 8.6% (7% to 10.2%). Associations with PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon remained significant at low concentrations. For participants with exposures below the US standard of 12 μg/m 3 an increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 29.6% (14% to 47.4%) increase in natural deaths. Conclusions Our study contributes to the evidence that outdoor air pollution is associated with mortality even at low pollution levels below the current European and North American standards and WHO guideline values. These findings are therefore an important contribution to the debate about revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards, and future assessments by the Global Burden of Disease.
International audience ; Objective To investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality, focusing on associations below current European Union, United States, and World Health Organization standards and guidelines. Design Pooled analysis of eight cohorts. Setting Multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) in six European countries. Participants 325 367 adults from the general population recruited mostly in the 1990s or 2000s with detailed lifestyle data. Stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the associations between air pollution and mortality. Western Europe-wide land use regression models were used to characterise residential air pollution concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and black carbon. Main outcome measures Deaths due to natural causes and cause specific mortality. Results Of 325 367 adults followed-up for an average of 19.5 years, 47 131 deaths were observed. Higher exposure to PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon was associated with significantly increased risk of almost all outcomes. An increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 13% (95% confidence interval 10.6% to 15.5%) increase in natural deaths; the corresponding figure for a 10 μg/m 3 increase in nitrogen dioxide was 8.6% (7% to 10.2%). Associations with PM 2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon remained significant at low concentrations. For participants with exposures below the US standard of 12 μg/m 3 an increase of 5 μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with 29.6% (14% to 47.4%) increase in natural deaths. Conclusions Our study contributes to the evidence that outdoor air pollution is associated with mortality even at low pollution levels below the current European and North American standards and WHO guideline values. These findings are therefore an important contribution to the debate about revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards, and future assessments by the Global Burden of Disease.