The BES, ASAB, Greenpeace Environmental Trust, Scottish Natural Heritage, Scottish Government, Whale and Dolphin Conservation, Talisman Energy (UK) Ltd., Department of Energy and Climate Change, Chevron, Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the University of Aberdeen all provided funding for annual surveys in the Moray Firth. St. Andrews Bay surveys were funded by a Royal Society University Research Fellowship to V.M.J., studentships from NERC and the Mexican National Council for Science and Technology (CONACYT). ; The requirement to monitor listed species in European designated sites is challenging for long-lived mobile species that only temporarily occupy protected areas. We use a 21 year time series of bottlenose dolphin photo-identification data to assess trends in abundance and conservation status within a Special Area of Conservation (SAC) in Scotland. Mark–recapture methods were used to estimate annual abundance within the SAC from 1990 to 2010. A Bayesian mark–recapture model with a state-space approach was used to estimate overall population trends using data collected across the populations' range. Despite inter-annual variability in the number of dolphins within the SAC, there was a >99% probability that the wider population was stable or increasing. Results indicate that use of the SAC by the wider population has declined. This is the first evidence of long-term trends in the use of an EU protected area by small cetaceans in relation to changes in overall population status. Our results highlight the importance of adapting the survey protocols used in long-term photo-identification studies to maintain high capture probabilities and minimise sampling heterogeneity. Crucially, these data demonstrate the value of collecting data from the wider population to assess the success of protected areas designated for mobile predators. ; Publisher PDF ; Peer reviewed
In: Bartolino , V , Berges , B , Brooks , M E , Cardinale , M , Cole , H , de Moor , C , De Oliveira , J , Devine , J , Dunn , M , Fischer , S , Goto , D , Hintzen , N T , Howell , D , Jardim , E , Kempf , A , Kvamme , C , Lusseau , S M , Mackinson , S , Mannini , A , Miethe , T , Millar , S , Miller , D , Mosegaard , H , Mosqueira , I , Needle , C L , Nielsen , A , Pastoors , M , Pinto , C , Rohlf , N , Sparrevohn , C , Trijoulet , V & Walker , N 2019 , Workshop on North Sea Stocks Management Strategy Evaluation (WKNSMSE) . ICES Scientific Report , no. 12 , vol. 1 , International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) , Copenhagen, Denmark . https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5090
WKNSMSE (Workshop on North Sea stocks Management Strategy Evaluation) took place over two physical meetings (19-21 November 2018 and 26-28 February 2019, but at ICES HQ, Copenhagen) and several WebEx meetings, was chaired by José De Oliveira (UK) and included 30 participants from Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, UK and the European Commission, and two reviewers from South African and New Zealand. The purpose of this work was to evaluate long-term management strategies for jointly-managed stocks in the North Sea (cod, haddock, whiting, saithe and autumn-spawning herring) between the European Union and Norway, following a request from EU-Norway. The first physical meeting provided an ICES interpretation of the EU-Norway request, agreed the specifications of the MSE, decided on the tools and approaches to use, and developed a work plan, while the second meeting (and subsequent follow-up WebEx meetings) discussed results, developed conclusions, ensured the minimum requirements for conducting MSEs (developed by WKGMSE2) were met, and finalised the report. ICES were tasked to find "optimal" combinations of harvest control rule parameters (F target and B trigger ) for management strategies with or without stability mechanisms (TAC constraints and banking and borrowing scenarios). "Optimal" combinations were defined as those combinations of F target and B trigger that simultaneously maximised long-term yield while being precautionary (long-term risk3≤5%). The request also asked for sensitivity tests once the management strategies were "optimised". The approach adopted for all stocks was to include the assessment and forecast in a full-feedback MSE simulation, and to condition the baseline operating model on the benchmarked ICES assessment. The one exception was haddock, where it was not possible to include TSA in the full-feedback simulation because it was too slow to converge and requires manual intervention; SAM was used instead as a reasonable approximation. The approach also considered alternative operating models to capture a broader range of uncertainties. Full-feedback simulations were computationally challenging and required the use of parallelisation and high-performance computing; it also meant that the time-frame for the work was extremely tight, and in some cases, analyses were restricted. Nonetheless, the work was completed for all stocks, and "optimal" combinations for most management strategies were found. There were some notable issues that arose through this suite of MSEs, including that some management strategies that were precautionary in the long-term could have unsavoury and avoidable features in the short term (depending on the management strategy), and that reference points estimated by EqSim were, in many cases, no longer found to be precautionary in the MSE.