Suchergebnisse

International audience ; This paper describes the multisectoral macroeconomic model of a small developing economy in transition, in order to highlight linkages between agriculture and the rest of the economy, and consequences of external opening up. Agriculture is a supply sector, sticky in the short range with market clearing by price adjustment. The non agricultural sector is demand-led, with imperfect competition (and hence sticky prices and indexed nominal wages). According to this dual theoretical pattern, labor market is segmented with an unlimited supply in the rural area. This part of labor force is employed in the agricultural sector and in the rural non agricultural one. Urban workers are employed in the non agricultural sector but may face unemployment. The wage gap between urban and rural areas induces migration, according to a Harris Todaro mechanism. This framework is applied to the Vietnam case. A calibrated quantitative model performs a base line simulation from 1993 to 2010, following approximately the path designed by the Vietnamese government. Finally, this model is used to sketch various scenarios, among which traditional macroeconomic packages, structural reforms, and external shocks.

Lipietz, Alain: L'audace ou l'enlisement: sur les politiques economiques de la gauche. - Paris : La Decouverte, 1984. + Aglietta, Michel ; Brender, Anton: Les metamorphoses de la societe salariale: La France en projet. - Paris : Calmann-Levy, 1984. + Enthält Rezensionen von: Mazier, Jacques ; Basle, Maurice ; Vidal, Jean Francois: Quand les crises durent. - Paris : Economica, 1984

The European Union has reached a critical juncture in dealing with the fallout from the 2008 financial meltdown that started in the USA and spread to engulf banks and the financial markets of Europe. The ensuing recession or stagnation in many member countries was compounded by austerity programs undertaken by national governments, in some cases as a pre-condition for rescue from potential bankruptcy. Europe's leaders took initiatives to strengthen financial systems but have been unable to secure a significant recovery of the European economy or avert growing divergences between member states in GDP per capita, unemployment rates and external-account balances. This memorandum written by participants of a 3-year research project on Europe and the world's socio-economic future to 2030 (the AUGUR project) discusses possible ways out of prolonged stagnation and low growth. The current trajectory can trigger renewed crises of political-economic sclerosis in Europe and progressively undermine social standards and well-being. Such an outcome would strengthen the forces that aim to dismantle European integration. An overriding priority must be given to rebalancing the distribution of growth between different parts of Europe. Policies in R&D, competition and external trade must be reassessed with these objectives in view. EU finance for social programmes in lower-income countries is needed to support improvements in education, health and other public services that benefit social cohesion thereby securing the foundation for higher productivity and competitiveness.