Suchergebnisse

International agreements, such as those governing arms control or the environment, virtually always require some degree of verification of information, in order that compliance can be established. To ensure that the verification process can be regarded as efficient, effective and impartial, it is important to have a mathematical model of it. One can be derived by applying methods from statistics and the theory of non-cooperative games, developed in part by John Nash, who received a Nobel prize in 1994 for his work. The methods permit the development of rational verification strategies, as well as such fundamental concepts as guaranteed probability of detection, timeliness of inspections and the deterrence of illegal activity. In this 1996 book, the required theory is introduced gradually in the context of specific real-world examples. The only prerequisites are simple calculus and statistics, so the book should be accessible to a broad range of scientists and non-scientists, in industrial, academic or governmental environments

In the context of the major potential impacts of COVID-19 on agriculture and agricultural trade in developing countries, this Viewpoint discusses the advantages of adopting a conceptual framework previously used to discuss the impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic on agriculture and rural livelihoods. The framework is made up of two pairs of linked concepts: 1) Susceptibility or the chance of an individual becoming infected; 2) Resistance or the ability of an individual to avoid infection; 3) Vulnerability or the likelihood of significant impacts occurring at individual, household or community level; and 4) Resilience: the active responses that enable people to avoid the worst impacts of an epidemic at different levels or to recover faster to a level accepted as normal. This framework allows the clear formulation of key questions for COVID-19: factors in the labor process itself that make people more or less susceptible; broader socio-economic and biophysical determinants of susceptibility; factors that make farm households, food enterprises and value chains more vulnerable to the impacts of the pandemic; and aspects of COVID-19 responses by governments and the private sector that might increase vulnerability. Brief examples of susceptibility of value chain operations and of their vulnerability to COVID-19 lockdown measures are given. A focus on resistance and resilience encourages investigation of local-level responses by communities and NGOs, which with appropriate monitoring and learning could be scaled up.

AbstractAmong the many implications for development of the global revolution in Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) is the possibility of using ICTs to assist policy makers. This paper reflects on the author's experience drafting the policy modules of the 'Livestock‐Environment Toolbox.' Using an electronic web‐based format for the Toolbox allowed it to be highly compact and non‐linear, while remaining accessible through Web and CD‐ROM versions. Some policy issues for the application of ICTs are raised: no field of policy is self‐contained. There are trade‐offs between global outreach and regional specificity, and between participation and authority. The electronic dissemination of policy information must be supported through training and capacity‐building. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.