Internal Devaluation in Currency Unions: The Role of Trade Costs and Taxes
In: ECB Working Paper No. 2017/2049
20 Ergebnisse
Sortierung:
In: ECB Working Paper No. 2017/2049
SSRN
Working paper
In: Economica, Band 91, Heft 364, S. 1349-1390
ISSN: 1468-0335
AbstractWe critically examine the hypothesis that COVID‐19 has ushered in a large reallocation shock in the USA, beyond typical business cycle patterns. We take a broad perspective, and first consider data from the CPS and JOLTS; there is no noticeable uptick in occupation or sector switches, either at the aggregate level or in the cross‐section. The dispersion of sectoral growth rates over the three years before the pandemic was similar to the previous period. The recovery from the initial shock was characterized by very high quits and low layoffs, patterns indicative of a strong labour market, not excessively high reallocation relative to previous business cycles. High growth of small employers in the recovery, and larger ones once the labour market tightened, is also a common cyclical pattern. We then examine whether mismatch unemployment rose as a result of the pandemic; using an off‐the‐shelf multisector search and matching model, there is little evidence for an important role for mismatch in driving the unemployment rate during the pandemic. Finally, we employ a novel Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression framework with sign restrictions to identify a reallocation shock; we find that it has played a relatively minor role in explaining labour market patterns in the pandemic, at least relative to earlier episodes.
In: Bank of Greece Economic Bulletin, Issue 57
SSRN
In: Bank of Greece Working Paper No. 295 
DOI: https://doi.org/10.52903/wp2022295
SSRN
In: ECB Working Paper No. 2022/2703
SSRN
In: ECB Working Paper No. 2240 (2019); ISBN 978-92-899-3502-9
SSRN
Working paper
In: ECB Working Paper No. 2021/2632
SSRN
SSRN
In: Bank of Greece Economic Bulletin, Issue 55, Article 1, DOI: https://doi.org/10.52903/econbull20225501
SSRN
In: ECB Occasional Paper No. 2020244
SSRN
Working paper
Digitalisation can be viewed as a major supply/technology shock affecting macroeconomic aggregates that are important for monetary policy, such as output, productivity, investment, employment and prices. This paper takes stock of developments in the digital economy and their possible impacts across the euro area and European Union (EU) economies. It also compares how these economies fare relative to other major economies such as that of the United States. The paper concludes that: (i) there is significant country heterogeneity across the EU in terms of the adoption of digital technologies, and most EU countries are falling behind competitors, particularly the United States; (ii) digitalisation is affecting the economy through a number of channels, including productivity, employment, competition and prices; (iii) digitalisation raises productivity and lowers prices, similarly to other supply/technology shocks; (iv) this has implications for monetary policy and its transmission; and (v) structural and other policies may need to be adapted for the euro area and EU countries to fully reap the potential gains from digitalisation, while maintaining inclusiveness.
BASE
In: ECB Working Paper No. 2253 (2019); ISBN 978-92-899-3515-9
SSRN
Working paper
In: Bank of Greece Economic Bulletin, Issue 56 https://doi.org/10.52903/econbull20225602
SSRN
In: Bank of Greece Economic Bulletin, Issue 51, Article 1
SSRN
Well-functioning economic structures are key for resilient and prospering euro area economies. The global financial and sovereign debt crises exposed the limited resilience of the euro area's economic structures. Economic growth was masking underlying weaknesses in several euro area countries. With the inception of the crises, significant efforts have been undertaken by Member States individually and collectively to strengthen resilience of economic structures and the smooth functioning of the euro area. National fiscal policies were consolidated to keep the increase in government debt contained and structural reform momentum increased notably in the second decade, particularly in those countries most hit by the crisis. The strengthened national economic structures were supported by a reformed EU crisis and economic governance framework. However, overall economic structures in euro area countries are still not fully commensurate with the requirements of a monetary union. Moreover, remaining challenges, such as population ageing, low productivity and the implications of digitalisation, will need to be addressed to increase economic resilience and long-term growth.
BASE