PUBLIC DEBT AND THE CENTRAL BANK IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE CURRENCY BOARD ; JAVNI DUG I CENTRALNA BANKA U USLOVIMA VALUTNOG ODBORA
The subject and purpose of the research in this paper is based on the analysis of the influence of the central bank on public debt in the conditions of the currency board in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The structure of the work was set up through a dynamic analysis of the ratio of public debt variables, the supply of money, the state of the budget of the governments of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the current account and the nominal exchange rate. The research covers the period from 2000 to 2016. The research methodology is based on the use of empirical data and the application of the vector autoregresion model (VAR). On the basis of an analysis of the function of impulse and response, it is possible to indicate the reactions of the variable variables with one another. On the other hand, the decomposition of variance through the model proves the mutual variability and interaction of the variables for the observed period of research. The practical implications of the work are reflected in the answer to the extent to which monetary authorities, in the conditions of the currency board, due to the endogenous supply of money, contribute to the creation of a budget deficit and public debt. ; Predmet i cilj istraživanja u ovom radu bazira se na analizi uticaja centralne banke najavni dug u uslovima valutnog odbora u Bosni i Hercegovini. Konstrukcija rada je postavljena kroz dinamičku analizu odnosa varijabli javnog duga, ponude novca, stanja budžeta vlada Bosne i Hercegovine, tekućeg računa i nominalnog deviznog kursa. Istraživanje pokriva period od 2000. do 2016. godine. Metodologija istraživanja bazira se na upotrebi empirijskih podataka i primjeni vektorskog autoregresionog modela (VAR). Na bazi analize funkcije impulsa i odgovora moguće je ukazati na reakcije promjenjljivih varijabli međusobno, sa jedne strane. Sa druge strane, dekompozicijom varijanse kroz model dokazuje se međusobna varijabilnost i međusobni uticaj varijabli za posmatrani period istraživanja. Praktične implikacije rada ogledaju se kroz odgovor koliko monetarne vlasti u uslovima valutnog odbora, usljed endogene ponude novca, doprinose stvaranju budžetskog deficita i javnom zaduženju.