We examined the diverse composition of young people aged 15–29 in Brazil who are not in education, employment, or training (NEET). The analysis shows the Brazilian NEET population's main characteristics by analyzing data from the 2014 National Household Sample Survey. The findings confirm significant socioeconomic heterogeneity in group composition, which allows identification of subgroups with different levels of social vulnerability. A considerable proportion of these young people are in this status due to structural issues and social inequality, and for another significant portion of cases, NEET status is not a problem in itself. Therefore, especially in Latin America where demographic transitions have resulted in large economically active populations, investigations of youth inactivity and risk of social exclusion among this group are warranted.
Objective: The proportion of ill-defined causes of death (IDCD) was persistently high in some regions of Brazil in 2004. In 2005, the Brazilian government implemented a project in order to decrease this proportion, especially in higher priority states and municipalities. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of this project in Alagoas — a state from the Northeast region of Brazil. Method: We selected a probabilistic sample of 18 municipalities. For all IDCD identified in 2010, we collected the verbal autopsy (VA) questionnaires used for home investigation, and the Ministry of Health (MoH) form, which contains information about the final disease and cause of death taken from hospital records, autopsies, family health teams, and civil registry office records. The completion rate of the MoH form and VA was calculated using the number of deaths with specific causes assigned among investigated deaths. Results: A total of 681 IDCD were recorded in 2010 in the sample, of which 26% had a MoH and/or VA3 forms completed. Although the majority of cases were attended by health professionals during the terminal disease, the completion rate was 45% using the MoH form and 80% when VA was performed. Conclusions: Our findings provide evidence that the training of the epidemiological surveillance teams in the investigation and certification of causes of death could contribute to improve the quality of mortality data. ; Introdução: Em 2004, a proporção de óbitos por causas mal definidas (CMD) mantinha-se persistentemente elevada em algumas regiões do Brasil. Em 2005, o Ministério da Saúde implementou o programa Redução do percentual de óbitos por causas mal definidas para diminuir essa proporção, especialmente em estados e municípios considerados prioritários. Este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar o desempenho desse programa em Alagoas — estado da região Nordeste. Método: Foi selecionada amostra probabilística de 18 municípios e identificadas todas as CMD em 2010. Foram analisados os formulários de autópsia verbal (AV) utilizados para investigação domiciliar e o denominado Investigação do Óbito com Causa Mal Definida (IOCMD), que contém informações sobre a doença final e a causa de morte, obtidas de registros hospitalares, autópsias, equipes de saúde da família e cartórios. Analisou-se também a completude de preenchimento dos formulários e a proporção de óbitos por CMD com causas básicas reclassificadas após investigação. Resultados: Foram identificados 681 óbitos por CMD, dos quais 26% tinham sido investigados com uso do IOCMD e/ou AV3. Embora a maioria dos casos tenha sido atendida por profissionais de saúde durante a doença terminal, a proporção de reclassificação de CMD para causa definida foi de 45% com utilização do formulário IOCMD e de 80% quando a AV3 foi realizada. Conclusões: Nossos resultados fornecem evidências de que o treinamento da equipe de vigilância epidemiológica na investigação e certificação de causas de morte poderia contribuir para a melhoria da qualidade dos dados de mortalidade.
INTRODUÇÃO: Em 2004, a proporção de óbitos por causas mal definidas (CMD) mantinha-se persistentemente elevada em algumas regiões do Brasil. Em 2005, o Ministério da Saúde implementou o programa Redução do percentual de óbitos por causas mal definidas para diminuir essa proporção, especialmente em estados e municípios considerados prioritários. Este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar o desempenho desse programa em Alagoas - estado da região Nordeste. MÉTODO: Foi selecionada amostra probabilística de 18 municípios e identificadas todas as CMD em 2010. Foram analisados os formulários de autópsia verbal (AV) utilizados para investigação domiciliar e o denominado Investigação do Óbito com Causa Mal Definida (IOCMD), que contém informações sobre a doença final e a causa de morte, obtidas de registros hospitalares, autópsias, equipes de saúde da família e cartórios. Analisou-se também a completude de preenchimento dos formulários e a proporção de óbitos por CMD com causas básicas reclassificadas após investigação. RESULTADOS: Foram identificados 681 óbitos por CMD, dos quais 26% tinham sido investigados com uso do IOCMD e/ou AV3. Embora a maioria dos casos tenha sido atendida por profissionais de saúde durante a doença terminal, a proporção de reclassificação de CMD para causa definida foi de 45% com utilização do formulário IOCMD e de 80% quando a AV3 foi realizada. CONCLUSÕES: Nossos resultados fornecem evidências de que o treinamento da equipe de vigilância epidemiológica na investigação e certificação de causas de morte poderia contribuir para a melhoria da qualidade dos dados de mortalidade. ; OBJECTIVE: The proportion of ill-defined causes of death (IDCD) was persistently high in some regions of Brazil in 2004. In 2005, the Brazilian government implemented a project in order to decrease this proportion, especially in higher priority states and municipalities. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of this project in Alagoas - a state from the Northeast region of Brazil. METHOD: We selected a probabilistic sample of 18 municipalities. For all IDCD identified in 2010, we collected the verbal autopsy (VA) questionnaires used for home investigation, and the Ministry of Health (MoH) form, which contains information about the final disease and cause of death taken from hospital records, autopsies, family health teams, and civil registry office records. The completion rate of the MoH form and VA was calculated using the number of deaths with specific causes assigned among investigated deaths. RESULTS: A total of 681 IDCD were recorded in 2010 in the sample, of which 26% had a MoH and/or VA3 forms completed. Although the majority of cases were attended by health professionals during the terminal disease, the completion rate was 45% using the MoH form and 80% when VA was performed. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide evidence that the training of the epidemiological surveillance teams in the investigation and certification of causes of death could contribute to improve the quality of mortality data.
Background: Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time. Methods: Drawing from analytical approaches developed and refined in previous iterations of the GBD study, we generated updated estimates of child mortality by age group (neonatal, post-neonatal, ages 1–4 years, and under 5) for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational geographies, from 1980–2015. We also estimated numbers and rates of stillbirths for these geographies and years. Gaussian process regression with data source adjustments for sampling and non-sampling bias was applied to synthesise input data for under-5 mortality for each geography. Age-specific mortality estimates were generated through a two-stage age–sex splitting process, and stillbirth estimates were produced with a mixed-effects model, which accounted for variable stillbirth definitions and data source-specific biases. For GBD 2015, we did a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in child mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and annualised rates of decrease for under-5 mortality and stillbirths as they related to the Soci-demographic Index (SDI). Second, we examined the ratio of recorded and expected levels of child mortality, on the basis of SDI, across geographies, as well as differences in recorded and expected annualised rates of change for under-5 mortality. Third, we analysed levels and cause compositions of under-5 mortality, across time and geographies, as they related to rising SDI. Finally, we decomposed the changes in under-5 mortality to changes in SDI at the global level, as well as changes in leading causes of under-5 deaths for countries and territories. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 child mortality estimation process, as well as data sources, in accordance with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings: Globally, 5·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·7–6·0) children younger than 5 years died in 2015, representing a 52·0% (95% UI 50·7–53·3) decrease in the number of under-5 deaths since 1990. Neonatal deaths and stillbirths fell at a slower pace since 1990, decreasing by 42·4% (41·3–43·6) to 2·6 million (2·6–2·7) neonatal deaths and 47·0% (35·1–57·0) to 2·1 million (1·8-2·5) stillbirths in 2015. Between 1990 and 2015, global under-5 mortality decreased at an annualised rate of decrease of 3·0% (2·6–3·3), falling short of the 4·4% annualised rate of decrease required to achieve MDG4. During this time, 58 countries met or exceeded the pace of progress required to meet MDG4. Between 2000, the year MDG4 was formally enacted, and 2015, 28 additional countries that did not achieve the 4·4% rate of decrease from 1990 met the MDG4 pace of decrease. However, absolute levels of under-5 mortality remained high in many countries, with 11 countries still recording rates exceeding 100 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. Marked decreases in under-5 deaths due to a number of communicable diseases, including lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, measles, and malaria, accounted for much of the progress in lowering overall under-5 mortality in low-income countries. Compared with gains achieved for infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies, the persisting toll of neonatal conditions and congenital anomalies on child survival became evident, especially in low-income and low-middle-income countries. We found sizeable heterogeneities in comparing observed and expected rates of under-5 mortality, as well as differences in observed and expected rates of change for under-5 mortality. At the global level, we recorded a divergence in observed and expected levels of under-5 mortality starting in 2000, with the observed trend falling much faster than what was expected based on SDI through 2015. Between 2000 and 2015, the world recorded 10·3 million fewer under-5 deaths than expected on the basis of improving SDI alone. Interpretation: Gains in child survival have been large, widespread, and in many places in the world, faster than what was anticipated based on improving levels of development. Yet some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, still had high rates of under-5 mortality in 2015. Unless these countries are able to accelerate reductions in child deaths at an extraordinary pace, their achievement of proposed SDG targets is unlikely. Improving the evidence base on drivers that might hasten the pace of progress for child survival, ranging from cost-effective intervention packages to innovative financing mechanisms, is vital to charting the pathways for ultimately ending preventable child deaths by 2030.
Background Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time. Methods Drawing from analytical approaches developed and refined in previous iterations of the GBD study, we generated updated estimates of child mortality by age group (neonatal, post-neonatal, ages 1-4 years, and under 5) for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational geographies, from 1980-2015. We also estimated numbers and rates of stillbirths for these geographies and years. Gaussian process regression with data source adjustments for sampling and non-sampling bias was applied to synthesise input data for under-5 mortality for each geography. Age-specific mortality estimates were generated through a two-stage age-sex splitting process, and stillbirth estimates were produced with a mixed-effects model, which accounted for variable stillbirth definitions and data source-specific biases. For GBD 2015, we did a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in child mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and annualised rates of decrease for under-5 mortality and stillbirths as they related to the Soci-demographic Index (SDI). Second, we examined the ratio of recorded and expected levels of child mortality, on the basis of SDI, across geographies, as well as differences in recorded and expected annualised rates of change for under-5 mortality. Third, we analysed levels and cause compositions of under-5 mortality, across time and geographies, as they related to rising SDI. Finally, we decomposed the changes in under-5 mortality to changes in SDI at the global level, as well as changes in leading causes of under-5 deaths for countries and territories. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 child mortality estimation process, as well as data sources, in accordance with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, 5.8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5.7-6.0) children younger than 5 years died in 2015, representing a 52.0% (95% UI 50.7-53.3) decrease in the number of under-5 deaths since 1990. Neonatal deaths and stillbirths fell at a slower pace since 1990, decreasing by 42.4% (41.3-43.6) to 2.6 million (2.6-2.7) neonatal deaths and 47.0% (35.1-57.0) to 2.1 million (1.8-2.5) stillbirths in 2015. Between 1990 and 2015, global under-5 mortality decreased at an annualised rate of decrease of 3.0% (2.6-3.3), falling short of the 4.4% annualised rate of decrease required to achieve MDG4. During this time, 58 countries met or exceeded the pace of progress required to meet MDG4. Between 2000, the year MDG4 was formally enacted, and 2015, 28 additional countries that did not achieve the 4.4% rate of decrease from 1990 met the MDG4 pace of decrease. However, absolute levels of under-5 mortality remained high in many countries, with 11 countries still recording rates exceeding 100 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. Marked decreases in under-5 deaths due to a number of communicable diseases, including lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, measles, and malaria, accounted for much of the progress in lowering overall under-5 mortality in low-income countries. Compared with gains achieved for infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies, the persisting toll of neonatal conditions and congenital anomalies on child survival became evident, especially in low-income and low-middle-income countries. We found sizeable heterogeneities in comparing observed and expected rates of under-5 mortality, as well as differences in observed and expected rates of change for under-5 mortality. At the global level, we recorded a divergence in observed and expected levels of under-5 mortality starting in 2000, with the observed trend falling much faster than what was expected based on SDI through 2015. Between 2000 and 2015, the world recorded 10.3 million fewer under-5 deaths than expected on the basis of improving SDI alone. Interpretation Gains in child survival have been large, widespread, and in many places in the world, faster than what was anticipated based on improving levels of development. Yet some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, still had high rates of under-5 mortality in 2015. Unless these countries are able to accelerate reductions in child deaths at an extraordinary pace, their achievement of proposed SDG targets is unlikely. Improving the evidence base on drivers that might hasten the pace of progress for child survival, ranging from cost-effective intervention packages to innovative financing mechanisms, is vital to charting the pathways for ultimately ending preventable child deaths by 2030.
The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the funders. Data for this research was provided by MEASURE Evaluation, funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of USAID, the US Government, or MEASURE Evaluation. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics granted the researchers access to relevant data in accordance with licence no. SLN2014-3-170, after subjecting data to processing aiming to preserve the confidentiality of individual data in accordance with the General Statistics Law-2000. The researchers are solely responsible for the conclusions and inferences drawn upon available data. ; Background Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. ; Research reported in this publication was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the University of Melbourne, Public Health England, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, the National Institute on Aging of the National Institutes of Health (award P30AG047845), and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health (award R01MH110163). ; Peer reviewed