Going beyond values versus self-interest: whose attitudes change after employment transitions?
In: Political research exchange: PRX : an ECPR journal, Band 2, Heft 1, S. 1809473
ISSN: 2474-736X
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In: Political research exchange: PRX : an ECPR journal, Band 2, Heft 1, S. 1809473
ISSN: 2474-736X
In: European journal of political research: official journal of the European Consortium for Political Research, Band 58, Heft 1, S. 141-162
ISSN: 1475-6765
AbstractTypically, associations between being unemployed and policy attitudes are explained with reference to economic self‐interest considerations of the unemployed. Preferences for labour market policies (LMP) and egalitarian preferences are the prime example and the focus of this study. Its aim is to challenge this causal self‐interest argument: self‐interest consistent associations of unemployment with policy preferences are neither necessarily driven by self‐interest nor necessarily causal. To that end, this article first confronts the self‐interest argument with a broader perspective on attitudes. Given that predispositions (e.g., value orientations) are stable and influence more specific policy attitudes, it is at least questionable whether people change their policy attitudes simply because they get laid off. Second, the article derives a non‐causal argument behind associations between unemployment and policy attitudes, arguing that these might be spurious associations driven by individuals' socioeconomic background. After all, the entire socioeconomic background of a person is simultaneously related to both the risk of getting unemployed ('selection into unemployment') and distinct political socialisation experiences from early childhood onwards. Third, this article uses methods inspired by a counterfactual account on causality to test the non‐causal claims. Analyses are carried out using the fourth wave of the European Social Survey and applying entropy balancing to control for selection bias. In only two of the 31 analysed countries do unemployment effects on egalitarian orientations remain significant after controlling for selection bias. The same holds for effects on active LMP attitudes with the exception of six countries. Attitudes towards passive LMP are to some degree an exception since effects remain in a third of the countries. Robustness checks and Bayes factor replications showing evidence for the absence of unemployment effects support the general impression from these initial analyses. After discussing this article's results and limitations, its broader implications are considered. On the one hand, the article offers a new perspective on the conceptualisation and measurement of unemployment risk. On the other hand, its theoretical argument, as well as its treatment of the resulting selection bias, can be broadly applied. Thus, this article can contribute to many other research questions regarding the (ir)relevance of individual life events for political attitudes and political behaviour.
In: Comparative political studies: CPS
ISSN: 1552-3829
Education is one of the strongest predictors of political participation at the individual level. However, the association between education and participation varies across countries, which previous studies attribute mainly to institutions like electoral systems. Drawing on policy feedback and political socialization theories, we suggest an alternative explanation: education policies generate powerful and lasting policy feedback effects in adolescence, which continue to influence patterns of participation among adults. More concretely, we argue that policies aimed at de-stratifying secondary education (i.e., promoting more comprehensive models of education) are associated with a decrease in political inequality. We empirically investigate our argument in Germany, where education policies vary across sub-national units (Länder) and over time. We leverage this variation by combining data on Land-level policies with data on individual's participation. Our results show that de-stratifying education policies have reduced in inequality in various forms of political participation, interest, and efficacy, but not in turnout.
This cumulative dissertation project deals with the political consequences of unemployment. More precisely, it focuses on the effects of the individual experience of unemployment on labour market policy attitudes and broader political predispositions. All three articles share basic theoretical ideas: effects of unemployment on policy attitudes can be expected when self-interest is seen as an important driver of attitudes. Considerable stable political predispositions are an additional or even alternative determinant of (social) policy attitudes . Various socio-economic factors shape both, the risk of unemployment and individuals' political socialization experiences in their "impressionable years". This creates the problem of confounding, i.e. the issue of third, potentially omitted, variables when estimating the causal effect of unemployment on political attitudes. Analyses use several cross-sectional and longitudinal data sets and causal inference techniques. Most, though not all, evidence in the three articles suggests there is no main effect of unemployment on labour market policy attitudes and broader political predispositions. However, there is less evidence suggesting no effect on labour market policy attitudes than evidence suggesting no effect on predispositions. The second and third article focus on the moderating effects of predispositions.
In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), Band 119, Heft 44, S. 1-8
This study explores how researchers' analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers' expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team's workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers' results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.