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The economic landscape of Asia has transformed in the past two decades. Regional economies are linked, and have achieved prosperity. The region must now look to the future. This book explores issues in Asia's long-term development, identifying conditions for sustained growth and income convergence.

"This paper evaluates the impact of some key factor market reforms on ruralurban inequality and income distribution, using a household-disaggregated, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of People's Republic of China. It also explores how these factor market reforms interact with product market reforms currently under way as part of the country's WTO accession process. The simulation results show that reforms in the rural land rental market and hukou system, as well as increasing off-farm labor mobility, would reduce the urban-rural income ratio dramatically. Furthermore, the combination of WTO accession and factor market reforms improves both efficiency and equality significantly"

This paper evaluates the rural-urban migration and urban unemployment effects of China's WTO accession based on the China-US bilateral agreement on market accession. The evaluation is conducted by a 53-sector recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of China benchmarked to a most recent version of the Chinese Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The simulation results show that there is a great need for co-ordination between China's rural-urban migration policy, labour market reform and the implementation of trade liberalisation measures after China's WTO entry. The net benefit from WTO membership will be maximised if China adopts a policy gradually to relax its rural-urban migration control in conjunction with its labour market reform. Doing so not only prevents a dramatic worsening of the urban unemployment problem, but also permits enough labour market flexibility to create more employment opportunities for rural unskilled labour shifted out of the farming sector.

Cover -- Contents -- Preface -- Foreword -- Ch 1. Introduction -- Ch 2. How and Why the Trans-Pacific Partnership Became a Priority -- Historical Roots -- Objectives of the TPP -- Geopolitics -- Competing Templates -- The Emerging TPP Template -- Ch 3. Analytical Approach -- The Model -- Baseline Projections -- Scenarios of Trade Agreements -- Simulating the Effects of Trade Agreements -- Ch 4. Economic Implications of the Trans-Pacific and Asian Tracks -- Income Effects -- Trade and Investment Effects -- Structural Change -- Employment Effects -- Impacts on Nonmembers -- Ch 5. Dynamics of the Trans-Pacific and Asian Tracks -- Trans-Pacific Track -- Asian Track -- Pathways to Regionwide Agreements -- Who Will Lead? -- Ch 6. National Economic Interests -- United States -- China -- Japan -- Other Economies -- Ch 7. Conclusion -- Appendices -- References -- Abbreviations -- Index.

"While global trade negotiations remain stalled, two tracks of trade negotiations in the Asia-Pacific--the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and a parallel Asian track--could generate momentum for renewed liberalization and provide pathways to region-wide free trade. We estimate that world income would rise by $295 billion per year on the TPP track, by $766 billion if both tracks are successful, and by $1.9 trillion if the tracks ultimately combine to yield region-wide free trade. The tracks are competitive initially but their strategic implications appear to be constructive: they generate incentives for enlargement and mutual progress and, over time, for region-wide consolidation. The "21st century" template of the TPP would be especially productive because it is likely to offer opportunities for the leading sectors of both emerging-market and advanced economies. An ambitious TPP template would generate greater gains from integration than less demanding alternatives, but it will be harder to sell to China and other key regional partners as the TPP evolves toward wider agreements. The crucial importance of Asia-Pacific integration argues for an early conclusion of the TPP negotiations, but without jeopardizing the prospects for region-wide or even global agreements based on it in the future"--Provided by publisher