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Influences of agricultural technology on the size and importance of food price variability / Julian M. Alston, William J. Martin, and Philip G. Pardey ; comment: James M. MacDonald -- Corn production shocks in 2012 and beyond : implications for harvest volatility / Steven T. Berry, Michael J. Roberts, and Wolfram Schlenker ; comment: Derek Headey -- Biofuels, binding constraints and agricultural commodity price volatility / Philip Abbott ; comment: Brian D. Wright -- The evolving relationships between agricultural and energy commodity prices : a shifting-mean vector autoregressive analysis / Walter Enders and Matthew T. Holt ; comment: Barry K. Goodwin -- Bubble troubles? : rational storage, mean reversion and runs in commodity prices / Eugenio S.A. Bobenrieth, Juan R.A. Bobenrieth, and Brian D. Wright ; comment: Jock R. Anderson -- Bubbles, food prices, and speculation : evidence from the CFTC's daily large trader data files / Nicole M. Aulerich, Scott H. Irwin and Philip Garcia ; comment: Aaron Smith -- Food price volatility and domestic stabilization policies in developing countries / Christophe Gouel ; comment: Shenggen Fan -- Food price spikes, price insulation, and poverty / Kym Anderson, Maros Ivanic, and William J. Martin ; comment: Marc F. Bellemare -- Trade insulation as social protection / Quy-Toan Do, Andrei A. Levchenko, and Martin Ravallion ; comment: Ron Trostle.

Intro -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- Part I Introduction -- 1 Volatile and Extreme Food Prices, Food Security, and Policy: An Overview -- 1.1 The Relevance of Food Price Volatility -- 1.2 Understanding the Linkages Between Food Security, Price Volatility, and Extreme Events -- 1.2.1 The Concept of Food Security -- 1.2.2 Food Price Volatility -- 1.2.3 Extreme Events -- 1.3 Conceptual Framework of Volatility, Food Security Impacts, and Policy Responses -- 1.4 Contribution and Contents of the Book -- 1.5 Implications for Policymaking -- 1.5.1 Policies to Prevent and Reduce Excessive Price Volatility -- 1.5.1.1 Agricultural Markets: Information, Transparency, and Regulation -- 1.5.1.2 Stocks, Trade, and Regional Cooperation -- 1.5.1.3 Biofuel Policies, Energy Prices, Climate Change, and Technological Change -- 1.5.2 Social Protection and Nutrition Policies -- 1.5.3 New International Institutional Arrangements -- 1.6 Implications for Future Research -- References -- Part II Food Price Volatility at International Food Commodity Markets -- 2 Volatile Volatility: Conceptual and Measurement Issues Related to Price Trends and Volatility -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Price Levels and Price Variability -- 2.3 Different Measures and Concepts -- 2.3.1 Prices in Real or Nominal Terms -- 2.3.2 World Prices: In What Currency? -- 2.3.3 Domestic Prices and World Prices -- 2.3.4 Time Horizons -- 2.3.5 The Selection of Food Indices and Food Prices -- 2.3.6 Trends and Volatility: Different Approaches -- 2.3.7 Trends and cycles -- 2.3.8 Shorter-term Variations -- 2.3.9 Expected and Historical Volatility -- 2.3.10 Scaling the Shocks -- 2.4 Conclusions -- References -- 3 Drivers and Triggers of International Food Price Spikes and Volatility -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Conceptual Framework -- 3.3 Estimation Methods -- 3.4 Data -- 3.5 Results and Discussion.

Agricultural Economics

Food price volatility is one of the major challenges facing the global agricultural system today. This was most vividly illustrated during the global food crisis of 2007–9 when price spikes occurred for key staple food commodities—such as wheat, rice, maize, and soybeans. Given the variety of reactions by governments of countries experiencing similar food price shocks, the 2007–9 crisis offered an excellent natural experiment for generating knowledge on responses to price volatility in particular and on the political economy of agricultural policy-making more generally. This book contains the wealth of collaborative research by a global team of experts on food price policy—the research was undertaken on a sizeable group of low- and middle-income countries that were highly affected by the 2007–9 food crisis. The central aim of the study is to uncover which political economy factors—ranging from the constellation of different interest groups to the nature of political institutions—explain variations in policy responses across countries. The research output proves valuable for at least three target audiences. First, it can inform international organizations and donors about which types of policy interventions can mitigate price volatility and whether they are feasible given a country's political economy context. Second, it can help national policy makers better understand the trade-offs of certain policy interventions. Third, it generates much-needed further knowledge about the agricultural policy-making process in developing countries, which remains incredibly scarce despite the importance of agriculture to these countries' economies.

Food price volatility is one of the major challenges facing current and future global food systems. This book analyses how and why governments responded as they did to the global food crisis of 2007-09 and what their decisions can teach us about policy interventions.

In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations

Contents -- List of Illustrations -- List of Tables and Boxes -- Foreword, Per Pinstrup-Andersen -- Acknowledgements -- List of Acronyms and Abbreviations -- Introduction -- 1. The Food Crisis and Global Governance -- Part 1: The Causal Factors behind the Food Crisis -- 2. The Blame Game: Understanding Structural Causes of the Food Crisis -- 3. The 1974 and 2008 Food Price Crises: Déjà Vu? -- 4. Responding to Food Price Volatility and Vulnerability: Considering the Global Economic Context -- 5. US Biofuels Policy and the Global Food Price Crisis: A Survey of the Issues

Intro -- THE PRICE OF FOOD -- CONTENTS -- PREFACE -- PRICE DETERMINATION IN AGRICULTURALCOMMODITY MARKETS:APRIMER* -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY MARKETFUNDAMENTALS MARKET STRUCTURE AND PRICES -- What's Behind Market Price Differences -- Key Role of Market Information -- COMMODITY FUTURES MARKETS -- Overview -- The Price Basis -- Inter-Contract Price Spreads -- Old-Crop/New-Crop Price Spreads -- USDAMARKET INFORMATION -- Introduction -- Crop Production Reports -- Market Demand Information -- U.S. Government Program Activity -- Market Price Information -- Ending Stocks as a Summary of Market Conditions -- OVERVIEW OF COMMODITY MARKETS -- Macroeconomic Linkages to Commodity Markets -- Special Considerations for Agricultural Markets -- Wheat -- Corn -- Rice -- Cotton -- The Oilseed Complex -- APPENDIX TABLES -- REFERENCES -- GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY ANDDEMAND: FACTORS CONTRIBUTINGTO THE RECENT INCREASE INFOOD COMMODITY PRICES* -- ABSTRACT -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- INTRODUCTION* -- LONG-TERM TRENDS -- REASED MEAT CONSUMPTION MEANSINCREASED DEMAND FOR GRAIN AND PROTEIN FEEDS -- DEVELOPMENTS SINCE 2000 -- THE ROLE OF BIOFUELS -- FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS -- Developments in 2004 -- Developments in 2005/06 -- Developments in 2007 -- POLICY RESPONSES TO RISING FOOD PRICES -- IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD SECURITY -- FOOD PRICE INFL ATION IMPACT ON SOCIAL UNREST -- SUMMARY OF FACTORS CONTRIBUTINGTO HIGHER FOOD PRICES -- PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE -- REFERENCES -- BIOFUELS, INTERNATIONALFOOD PRICES, AND THE POOR1 -- INTRODUCTION -- ENERGY AND AGRICULTURE IN ABROADER CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK -- BIOFUELS AND RISING FOOD PRICES -- WOULD THE POOR GO EVEN HUNGRIERWITH MORE BIOFUEL PRODUCTION? -- IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY -- REFERENCES -- FOOD PRICE INFLATION:CAUSES AND IMPACTS* -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- KEY FACTORS BEHIND HIGHER COMMODITY PRICES.

This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.

Food price volatility is one of the major challenges facing current and future global food systems. This book analyses how and why governments responded as they did to the global food crisis of 2007-09 and what their decisions can teach us about policy interventions.

This paper studies the volatility of commodity prices on the basis of a large dataset of monthly prices observed in international trade data from the United States over the period 2002 to 2011. The conventional wisdom in academia and policy circles is that primary commodity prices are more volatile than those of manufactured products, even though most of the existing evidence does not actually attempt to measure the volatility of prices of individual goods or commodities. Rather the literature tends to focus on trends in the evolution and volatility of ratios of price indexes composed of multi

1. Food security, food prices and climate variability -- 2. Food security and monitoring systems -- 3. Climate variability, agriculture and remote sensing -- 4. Trends in national food security and the impact of climate -- 5. Markets and determinants of food prices -- 6. Food prices and seasonality -- 7. Modeling the impact of climate variability on local food prices -- 8. Environmental and nutrition outcomes -- 9. Policy implications of price dynamics and the way forward.

Food prices are generally excluded from measures of inflation most closely watched by policymakers due either to their transitory nature or their higher volatility. However, in lower income countries, food price inflation is not only more volatile but also on average higher than nonfood inflation. Food inflation is also in many cases more persistent than nonfood inflation, and shocks in many countries are propagated strongly into nonfood inflation. Under these conditions, and particularly given high global commodity price inflation in recent years, a policy focus on measures of core inflation

The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. This book uses a decade of primary research to examine how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in food-insecure regions of the world. The author reviews environmental, economics and multidisciplinary research to describe the connection betwee.