SUMMARY Iran's growing integration into the global economy, mainly through exports of petroleum, has relieved the foreign exchange constraint and made revenue for development available to the state. But the social and political reaction to 'development from above' or 'industrialisation at gunpoint' certainly proves that underdevelopment is not just matter of shortage of capital. The current features of Iran's industrial sector are: that the small scale predominates: that the capital goods sector remains small: that many 'modern' plants are really assembly plants: that imports are dominated by capital goods, and that exports of manufactures remain small. Whilst this does not add up to Frankian 'accumulated backwardness', neither is it full blown industrialisation. It is a picture of coexistent dependency and industrialisation.RESUMEN Irén: dependencia e industrializaciónLa creciente integración de Irán en la economía global, principalmente a travès de las exportaciones de petróleo. ha aliviado las restricciones de divisas extranjeras y ha puesto a disposición del Estado ingresos para el desarrollo. Pero la reacción social y política hacia el desarrollo desde arriba o la industrialización a tiro limpio demuestra indudablemente que el subdesarrollo no es sólo cuestión de escasez de capital. Las características actuales del sector industrial de Irán son: que predomina la pequeña escala: que el sector de bienes de producción sigue siendo pequeño: que las numerosas instalaciones de producción 'modernas' son verdaderamente instalaciones de montaje: que las importaciones están dominadas por los productos básicos y que las exportaciones de productos manufacturados siguen siendo pequeñas. Mientras esto no Ilegu a constituir un 'atraso acumulado' tampoco es una industrialización completa. Constituye una imagen de la dependencía y la industrialización en coexistencia.RESUME Iran: Dépendance et industrialisationL' intégration croissante de l'Iran á écononue globale, notamment par resportation du pétrole. a libéré le pays de la contrainte devises et mis des ressources ii la disposition de l'état pour le développement. Mais la réaction socio‐politique au développement imposé par les dirigeants et á rindustritilisation obligatoire prouve que le sous‐développement ne provient pas uniquement d'une pénurie de capitaux. L.es caractéristiques actuelles du secteur industriel iranien sont les suivantes: les petites entreprises prédominent: le secteur des biens d'équipement reste limité: beaucoup d'usines 'modernes' sont des usines de montage, les importations sont dominées par les biens d'équipement et les exportations de produits manufacturés restent limitées. Si ces éléments ne constituent pas tout á fait r 'arriération accumulée' de Frank, ils ne représentient pas non plus une industrialisation en profondeur. Ils constituent un exemple dein coexistence de la dépendance et de findustrialisation.
Los años iniciales de la Editorial de la Universidad de Buenos Aires (EUDEBA), 1958-1966, fueron elevados a la categoría de mito por la narrativa editorial argentina. "Una hazaña" frente a la cual se mide hasta hoy parte importante de los proyectos editoriales en el país. Esta imagen no carece de fundamentos: bajo la dirección de Boris Spivacow EUDEBA publicó más de 800 títulos de géneros muy diversos; abrió su catálogo a la vanguardia del pensamiento científico y artístico; convocó a académicos e intelectuales a participar en calidad de directores de colección, traductores y autores; diseñó una política de precios y de venta que apuntó a facilitar el acceso al libro a la mayor cantidad de lectores posibles; etc. Pero a la par de estos aspectos, se destacó por una política sistemática de traducción de autores y obras contemporáneas, que propició el acelerado proceso de modernización científica y cultural en el país. El presente artículo se propone analizar el papel jugado por EUDEBA en esta etapa, así como comprender los significados específicos que comportó la traducción en el marco del proyecto político modernizador de la ciencia, la cultura y la economía. ; The initial years of the Editorial of the University of Buenos Aires (EUDEBA), 1958-1966, were elevated to the category of "myth" by the Argentine publishing narrative. "A feat" in front of which an important part of the editorial projects in the country is still being measured. This image is not without fundamentals: under the direction of Boris Spivacow EUDEBA published more than 800 titles of very diverse genres; Opened its catalog to the vanguard of scientific and artistic thought; Invited academics and intellectuals to participate as collectors, translators and authors; Designed a policy of prices and sales that aimed to facilitate access to the book to as many readers as possible; etc. But in addition to these aspects, it was highlighted by a systematic policy of translation of contemporary authors and works, which led to the accelerated process of scientific and cultural modernization in the country. The present article aims to analyze the role played by EUDEBA in this stage, as well as to understand the specific meanings that the translation translated into the framework of the modernizing political project of science, culture and economy. ; Fil: Dujovne, Miguel Alejandro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones Sociales. Instituto de Desarrollo Económico y Social. Centro de Investigaciones Sociales; Argentina
El presente artículo tiene por objetivo analizar el proceso de gubernamentalización del Estado en la Argentina actual (2003-2012) y su expresión en el gobierno de la pobreza. El hilo conductor se encuentra en cómo se reconstruye el rol del Estado en la articulación de una serie de prácticas discursivas y no discursivas, cuando parece enfrentar el desafío paradojal de poner ciertos límites políticos y morales al mercado y, a su vez, posibilitar un marco para que el juego del mercado sea posible. En el caso argentino se trata de analizar cómo el gobierno de la pobreza, comprendida como "dispositivo del poder", se ejerce en la heterogeneidad de las políticas sociales con rostro humano, en el intento de complementar a los sujetos económicos (trabajo decente y la economía social), y los sujetos jurídicos (inclusión y equidad). ; This article aims to analyze the process of governmentalization the State in the current Argentina (2003-2012) and its expression in the government of poverty. The connecting thread is in how the role of the state is reconstructed in the articulation of a series of discursive and non-discursive practices when it seems to confront the challenge paradoxical of putting certain political and moral limits to the market and, at the same time, enable a framework for the game to market possible. In the Argentine case is to analyze how the government of poverty, understood as "the power device" is exercised in the heterogeneity of social policies with a human face , in an attempt to complement the economic subjects (decent work and "social economy) , and legal subjects (inclusion and equity) . ; O presente artigo tem por objetivo analisar o processo de governamentalização do Estado na Argentina atual (2003-2012) e sua expressão no governo da pobreza. O fio condutor se encontra em como se reconstrói o papel do Estado na articulação de uma série de práticas discursivas e não discursivas, quando parece enfrentar o desafio paradoxal de colocar certos limites políticos e morais ao mercado e, ao mesmo tempo, possibilitar um marco para que o jogo de mercado seja possível. No caso argentino trata-se de analisar como o governo da pobreza, compreendida como "dispositivo de poder", se exerce na heterogeneidade das políticas sociais com rosto humano, na tentativa de complementar os sujeitos econômicos (trabalho decente e a economia social), e os sujeitos jurídicos (inclusão e igualdade) ; Fil: Paulizzi, Maria Cora. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnológico Salta. Instituto de Investigacines en Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades; Argentina
Desde distintos enfoques, varias investigaciones recientes convergen en reflexionar sobre las transformaciones que afectaron al conjunto de la economía rioplatense en la transición de la colonia a la independencia. En esa dirección se orienta nuestro trabajo analizando la producción y la circulación mercantil periurbana orientada al abasto citadino porteño entre fines del siglo XVIII y la primera mitad del siglo XIX. En este trabajo focalizaremos nuestra atención en los cambios que el crecimiento urbano de Buenos Aires genera en la estructura productiva de su inmediata campaña y en cómo estas transformaciones impactan en el comercio minorista rural/urbano y entre sus agentes. Para ello recurriremos al análisis de diferentes fuentes documentales, entre las que se destacan los censos de población, las sucesiones patrimoniales y otros registros fiscales e impositivos. El marco cronológico elegido, caracterizado por la persistencia del crecimiento demográfico y económico en general pero, también, marcado por grandes mudanzas de índole política, institucional y mercantil, nos permitirá revisar las continuidades y rupturas que, para otros ámbitos, las investigaciones tienden a señalar. ; From different approaches and issues, several recent researches converge to reflect on the changes that affected the Río de la Plata economy in the transition from colony to independence. In this direction focuses our work trying to analyze the peri‑urban production and the supply of the Buenos Aires market between late‑eighteenth century and early‑nineteenth century. In this paper, we will focus our attention on the changes that urban growth generated in the productive structure of the Buenos Aires immediate hinterland and how these changes have an impact on rural/urban retail trade and among its agents. The analysis of different documentary sources, including population censuses, the patrimonial estates and other fiscal and tax records will allow us to follow to show these changes. The selected chronological framework, characterized by a persistent demographic and economic growth in addition to remarkable political ‑ intitutional and mercantil changes, will allow us to check the continuities and ruptures that, for other areas, the researches tends to point out. ; Fil: Ciliberto, Maria Valeria. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Humanidades. Departamento de Historia. Centro de Estudios Históricos; Argentina ; Fil: Rosas Principi, Andrea Gabriela. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Humanidades. Departamento de Historia. Centro de Estudios Históricos; Argentina
La actividad minera en Argentina cobra dinamismo y se vuelve fundamental para la economía del país, reposicionando la cordillera de los Andes en el corazón de las problemáticas económicas, políticas y sociales, a distintas escalas. La especialización de los territorios de montaña como reservorios de materias primas mineras es cuestionada por parecer inducir -en territorios todavía marginales, pobres y poco poblados- un débil desarrollo. Las trayectorias de tres provincias -San Juan, Catamarca y Jujuy- permiten analizar el rol de los actores estatales y no estatales en la construcción del recurso y de los valores que le son atribuidos. De esas interacciones nacen modelos de desarrollo alternativos para los territorios andinos, tomando en cuenta progresivamente las problemáticas locales de desarrollo. ; The mining industry has become very dynamic in Argentina and is in fact essential to the country's economy, repositioning the Andes mountain chain at the heart of economic, political and social issues, on different scales. The specialization of the mountain territories as reservoirs of raw materials to be obtained through mining is questioned because of the weak development that seems to result from it in these still marginal, poor and scarcely populated territories. The trajectories of three provinces -San Juan, Catamarca and Jujuy- make it possible to analyze the role of governmental and non-governmental stakeholders in developing the industry and the values attributed to it. These interactions give rise to alternative development models for the Andean territories, that progressively take the local development issues into account. ; A atividade mineradora na Argentina ganha dinamismo e torna-se fundamental para a economia do país ao reposicionar a Cordilheira dos Andes no coração das problemáticas econômicas, políticas e sociais, a diferentes escalas. A especialização dos territórios de montanha como reservatórios de matérias-primas mineradoras é questionada por parecer induzir -em territórios ainda marginalizados, pobres e pouco povoados- um fraco desenvolvimento. As trajetórias de três províncias - San Juan, Catamarca e Jujuy- permitem analisar o papel dos atores estatais e não estatais na construção do recurso e dos valores que lhe são atribuídos. Dessas interações, nascem modelos de desenvolvimento alternativos para os territórios andinos, considerando progressivamente as problemáticas locais de desenvolvimento. ; Fil: Carrizo, Silvina Cecilia. Universidad Nacional del Centro de la Provincia de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Humanas. Centro de Estudios Sociales de America Latina; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina ; Fil: Forget, Marie. Université de Savoie; Francia ; Fil: Denoël, Mathilde. No especifica;
Comparaciones intertemporales de satisfacción son comparaciones de naturaleza política o ética. Sin embargo el problema de desarrollo óptimo de un país es demasiado complicado como para seleccionar un criterio antes de conocer los resultados de su aplicación. La misión del economista consiste entonces en presentar a quien deba efectuar la elección, varios programas de desarrollo, correspondientes a criterio de óptimo distintos. En este trabajo se continúa con las exploraciones realizadas por varios autores, utilizando una función de bienestar social con una tasa de preferencia temporal que depende de los niveles de consumo. Esta innovación permite concluir que el comportamiento de una economía deficiente es, para una dotación inicial de recursos dada, muy similar al obtenido de preferencias con tasas de preferencias constantes; en cambio, si se comparan países con tecnologías y gustos similares, pero con dotaciones de recursos disímiles, se llega a la sorprendente conclusión que los dos pueden desear programas de desarrollo muy distintos. En algunos casos, los países ricos serán cada vez más ricos, y los pobres cada vez más pobres, no por limitaciones tecnológicas, sino porque las limitaciones impuestas inicialmente por los recursos alientan a unos pero no a los otros a emprender el sacrificio que supone el desarrollo. ; Intertemporal comparisons of satisfaction are comparisons of a political of ethical nature. However, the problem of optimal development of a country is too complicated in order to select a criterion before knowing the results of its application. The task of the economist, then, consists in presenting to whoever has to choose, various development programs which correspond to different authors are continued, using a social welfare function with a rate of time preferences that depends on the levels of consumption. This innovation enables us to conclude that the behavior of an efficient economy is, given an initial endowment of resources, very similar to the one obtained from preferences with a constant rate of time preference: instead, if countries with similar technology and tastes but with dissimilar initial endowment of resources are compared, the surprising conclusion is reached that both can desire very different development programs. In some cases, the rich countries will become richer, and the poor countries poorer, not because of technological limitations, but because the limitations initially imposed by resources encourage some of them, but not others, to undertake the sacrifice that development means. ; Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas
In: Sociologia ruralis, Volume 7, Issue 2, p. 194-209
ISSN: 1467-9523
Book reviewed in this article:RÜCKRIBM, G. M. (1965). Die Situation der Volksschulc auf dun Lande. Soziologische Studien und pädagogischc Überlegungcn. Schriften des Deutschcn Instituts für wissenschaftlichc Pädagogik, Münster, (München: Kösel‐Verlag), 351 S.HUDDE, W. & M. SCHMIEL, Hrsg. (1965), Handbuch des Landwirtschaftlichen Bildungswesens (München‐Bad‐Wien: Baynischer Landwirtschaftsvalag), 589 S.BucnHOLZ, E. W. (1966), Ländliche Bevölkerung an dcr SchweUe d s Indusuiaeitalters ‐ Dcr Raum Bnunschweig als Beispiel. Quellen und Forschungcn zur Agnrg dchte, Band XI (Stuttgart: Gustav Fischer Verlag), 94 S.ELHAI, H. (1965), Recherches sur la propriété foncière des citadins en Haute‐Normandie. Paris: C.N.R.S., Centre de Recherches et Documentation Cartographiques et Géographiques, Tome x, fascicule 3, I 10 p.KAVADIAS, G. B. (1965). Pastcurs nomades méditerranéns. Les Supcatsans dc Grèce (Paris: Gauthier‐Vilhrs), 446 pp,. 109 ill.ROUSSEAU. H. (1966), Les facteurs d'évolution de la commercialisation des produits agricolcs en France (Paris: Gauthier‐Villars), 256 p.Villages déscrtés et histoire économique. Xle‐XVIIIe siècles (1965), Éole Pratique des Hautes Études ‐ VIc Seaion, Centre dc Recherches Historiques (Paris:S.E.V.P.E.N.), pp.619.BOISSEVAIN. J. (1965), Saints and Fireworks. Religion and Politics in Rural Malta (University of London: Athlonc Press), 154 pp., Map and Plates.ISHWARAN, K. (1966), Tradition and Economy in Village India (London: Routledge and Kegan Paul Ltd.), pp. XIVt‐169.PAHL, R. E. (1965), Urbs in Rure: the Metropolitan Fringe in Hertfordshire. (London School of Economics and Political Science, Geographical Papers no. 2). pp. 83.ELIAS, NORBERT & JOHN L. SCOTSON (1965), The Established and the Outsiders: A Sociological Enquiry into Community Problems (Landon: Frank Cass & Co. Ltd.) PP. xi + 199.HAVINDEN, M. A. (I 966). (with contributions by D. S. Thornton and P. D. Wood), Estate Villages (London: Lund Humphria for the University of Reading). pp. 210.CONSTANDSE, A. K., L. WIJERS & N. C. DE RUITER (1966). Planning and Creation of an Environment: Experiences in the Yssclmecrpolders (The Hague: Ministry of Housing and Physical Planning), pp. 89, 69 illustrations.WEITZ, R., ed. (1965). Rural Planning in Developing Countries; Report on the Second Rchovot Conference, Israel, August 1963 (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul), PP. VIII + 443.Väestöntutkimuksen Vuosikirja IX, 1965–1966 (Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, 1965–1966) (Helsinki/Tapiola: Väest7ouml;poliittincn Tutkimuslaitos/Population Research Institute), pp. 140.BECKER, H. A., 4. (1966), Demwatie en sociaal onderzock. Positie en funaie van het sociaal‐wctcnschappelijk onde‐k in dc verhouding tussen ovcrhcid UI bevolking (Democracy and Research. Position and Function of Social Research in the Relation between Government and Population), (Utrecht: Bijleveld), PP. 232.
The Problem setting. Due to the rapid development of digital technologies, the issue of status settlement and the use of artificial intelligence technologies is especially relevant. This fact indicates the need and importance of finding answers to the question and aims to intensify and unite the efforts of the scientific community to address relevant issues. One of the areas of scientific research is the doctrinal development of new phenomena and processes that have arisen and are taking place in the state and legal sphere under the influence of digitalization of economics, management and law. The tasks of scientific research are to comprehend the impact of the digitization process on the state and legal sphere of society; law as such; assessment of the transformations that are taking place and identification of trends in their dynamics; forecasting the state of these phenomena in the future; formulation of fundamental and applied problems of legal science in terms of doctrinal development of the laws of development and functioning of law, state and legal sphere of society in the conditions of digital reality, determination of approaches to their solution.
Recent research and publications analysis. An analysis of recent research and publications shows that scientific research on this issue is carried out mainly within the economic, political, computer, legal sciences, although the problems and prospects of digitization of law require a deep and thorough philosophical, including philosophical and legal understanding. The rapid development of new technologies, in particular artificial intelligence technologies, the Internet of Things, cloud technologies, etc., is contributing to changes in current legislation. Today, advanced economies are already pondering the question of regulating the status and use of AI technologies. While these are only the first bold steps, in the future, all of these can affect global changes in the legal system - perhaps full-fledged comprehensive institutions of law, even the branches of law.
Paper objectiv. The purpose of this article is a philosophical and legal understanding of the impact of digitalization on the state and legal sphere of society and law as such.
Paper main body. One of the practical aspects of digitalization is the manifestation of the state's ability to provide various services. If necessary, citizens receive certificates, records, statements, responses to electronic inquiries, electronic payments. Other practical aspects, provided that these technologies are used wisely, can improve welfare in education, public safety, and health. In addition, digital imaging can also help address common global issues, such as climate change and greater access to health care and mobility.
At the same time, according to many researchers, along with the benefits of digital technologies, including artificial intelligence, new types of ethical issues are being raised, namely compliance with legal ethics standards by artificial intelligence systems and justice, the most important of which are respect for human rights and democratic values. , as well as the danger of transferring prejudices from the analog to the digital world. Researchers have linked the legal challenges of using artificial intelligence technologies in legal practice to a number of issues. In particular, with such as: ensuring data confidentiality; access to confidential law enforcement information; lack of regulatory framework for the use of artificial intelligence systems in legal practice; protection of intellectual property; risk assessment of the use of artificial intelligence systems by a lawyer when working with a client; other potential problems of lawyer's liability; dangers of unauthorized access and modification of artificial intelligence systems by attackers; damage to artificial intelligence systems by malicious virus programs; violation of the terms of providing advice from artificial intelligence systems in case of technical problems, etc. Therefore, the development of systems that transparently use artificial intelligence and are responsible for their results is critical. Artificial intelligence systems must function properly and safely.
According to experts, the unresolved in Ukraine of many political and legal issues related to the rapid development of the information and communication sphere with the advent of digital technologies has become dangerous. It is obvious that the transformations in society associated with these processes require new approaches to the development of national policies for the digitalization of society, which should be based on international agreements. Due to these transformations, there is a need to develop strategic documents that will regulate this area. These documents should be flexible and designed to take into account the maximum amount of data, as well as ensure the free development of innovative technologies and prevent possible risks.
Issues of development of the digital economy and society of Ukraine do not fully meet today's conditions, not enough account is taken of the transformations that have emerged and are currently taking place both in law and in the field of legal regulation under the influence of digitalization. Digital technologies are able to change the image of law, to influence its regulatory potential and efficiency, to open the way or to block its action in new dimensions of social reality. Traditional rather than digital vision of law, legal technologies and certain types of legal activity by legislators is a consequence of the lack of relevant scientific developments that will identify and explain the impact of the digitization process on the law and the legal sphere of society. The practical need for this kind of research is now greater than ever. In order to satisfy it, scientists should intensify work in this direction.
Conclusions of the research. The new digital reality puts forward new requirements for legal science and legal practice, including the development of effective tools and models of legal regulation of various spheres of public life. In modern conditions, law becomes not only a means, a tool that provides digitalization of the economy, government and other segments of social life, but also the object of digitalization. With the development of digital technologies, the contradiction between the need for quality both in terms of form and content of regulations, as well as the ability to meet it in a short time. The task of the state is both to provide favorable conditions conducive to digitalization and to create opportunities for their implementation.
The Asia and Pacific region is now a powerful engine for the world economy, contributing 60% of global growth. The region's economic expansion has averaged 6.8% a year since the 2008–2009 global financial crisis—underpinned by stable economic conditions that have accelerated development and fostered poverty reduction. While the outlook for growth remains positive, several development challenges remain. The countries of Asia and the Pacific are experiencing rapid urbanization, huge demographic shifts, growing environmental pressures, and large infrastructure deficits. Income inequality has risen in several countries and social disparities persist. Meanwhile, an increasingly interconnected and interdependent world brings the potential for faster transmission of global shocks. Despite its strong economic growth, Asia and the Pacific is home to 264 million people living in extreme poverty (on less than $1.90 a day). An additional 836 million people are living in poverty (on an amount between $1.90 and $3.20 a day)—with many at risk of being pushed into extreme poverty through economic downturn or external shocks. How economies in Asia and the Pacific utilize new and emerging technologies will be important in meeting development challenges. Technological advancements are broadening the platforms for education and health care, making renewable energy competitive and expanding access to modern communications. The challenge for the region is to capitalize on these opportunities while managing the disruptive impacts—such as labor displacement, cyber fraud, and data theft—that some technologies may have on society.
Jordan is an upper middle income country which has proven remarkably resilient despite decades of turmoil in its neighborhood. Even with economic stability in the face of massive shocks, the Jordanian government - reflecting the views of the population - has made clear the need for improvement in the current growth trajectory. Public dissatisfaction coalesced around a perception, which the government acknowledges, that previous reform efforts had struggled with implementation, while discretionary decisions and unequal opportunities remain entrenched. In response, the government is moving to the implementation phase of its Jordan 2025 strategic blueprint, a new ten-year strategy formally launched in May 2015. The Bank's systematic country diagnostic (SCD) is therefore unfolding at a critical inflection point for the government. Given existing reform momentum around the energy sector and investment, the substantive engagement of the Bank Group and other development partners, the SCD will seek added value by providing an integrative and concise perspective on what Jordan can do to better meet the expectations of its citizens. As a multi-sector evidence-based diagnostic, the SCD relies upon consistent and integrated analysis of data from various sources.
Despite recent calls in support of cash transfers, there is little rigorous evidence of the relative impacts of cash versus in-kind transfers, especially in humanitarian contexts, where a majority of such programs take place. This paper uses data from a randomized experiment in the Democratic Republic of Congo to assess the relative impacts and costs of equivalently valued cash and voucher transfers. The voucher program distorted households' purchases along both the extensive and intensive margin as compared with unconstrained cash households. Yet there were no differences in food consumption or other measures of well-being, in part due to the fact that voucher households were able to resell part of what they purchased. As there were no significant benefits to vouchers, cash transfers were the more cost effective modality for both the implementing agency and program recipients in this context.
Contingent liabilities create management problems for governments. They have a cost, but judging what the cost is and whether it is worth incurring is difficult. Except in the case of contingent liabilities created by simple guarantees of debt, governments usually can incur contingent liabilities without budgetary approval or recognition in the governments accounts. So governments may prefer contingent liabilities to other obligations. (The uncertainty surrounding contingent liabilities can work differently. It is well known that PPPs create contingent liabilities, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and others often warn of the risks. The initial reaction of a cautious Ministry of Finance may be to seek to avoid all contingent liabilities.) Management problems also arise once a government has incurred a contingent liability. Projects need to be monitored to reduce risks if possible. Spending on contingent liabilities must sometimes be forecast, despite the difficulty.
This article suggests how state enterprises can be incorporated into the theoretical and empirical growth literature. Specifically, it shows that if state enterprises are less efficient than private firms, invest less, employ less skilled labor, and are less eager to adopt new technology, then a large state enterprise sector tends to be associated with slow economic growth, all else remaining the same. The empirical evidence for 1978-92 indicates that, through a mixture of these channels, an increase in the share of state enterprises in employment by one standard deviation could reduce per capita growth by one to two percentage points a year from one country to another.
There are a lot of moving parts to the MMT program. I want to focus on one of these parts today: the relation between monetary and fiscal policy. One thing I find appealing about MMT scholars is their attention to monetary history and institutional details. I've learned a lot from them in this regard. But as is often the case with details, one has to worry about whether they help shed light on a specific question of interest, or whether they sometimes let us not see the forest for the trees. And in terms of the broader picture, since I grew up in that branch of macroeconomics that tries to take money, banking, and debt seriously (i.e., not standard NK theory), I sometimes have a hard time understanding what all the fuss is about. Much of standard monetary theory (SMT) seems perfectly consistent with some of the ideas I seen discussed in MMT proponents; see, for example, The Failure to Inflate Japan.
This post is devoted to better understanding a contribution by Eric Tymoigne. Eric is one of the people I go to whenever I want to learn more about MMT (if you're interested in MMT, you should follow him on Twitter @tymoignee). In this post, I discuss his article "Modern Monetary Theory, and Interrelations Between the Treasury and Central Bank: The Case of the United States." (JEI 2014). Passages quoted from his paper are highlighted in blue. The working paper version of the paper can be found here. Eric has kindly agreed to respond to my comments and let me post our conversation. We had to some editing, hopefully this did not disrupt the flow too much. In any case, I hope you find it interesting. And, as always, feel free to join in on the conversation in the comments section below. -- DA
One of the main contributions of modern money theory (MMT) has been to explain why monetarily sovereign governments have a very flexible policy space. Not only can they issue their own currency to spend and to service their public debt denominated in their own unit of account, but also any self-imposed constraint on budgetary operations can be easily bypassed.
I'm curious to know what the contribution is here relative to standard monetary theory (SMT). In SMT, the government can also issue its own currency to spend and to service the public debt denominated in its own unit of account. So this degree of "flexibility" is already accounted for. As for "self-imposed constraints on budgetary operations," SMT takes several approaches to this issue, depending on the purpose of the analysis. One approach is to take these constraints as given and then to study their implications. But it is also common to consolidate the central bank, treasury and government into a single authority, which implies no self-imposed constraints on budgetary operations.
Perhaps what is meant is that MMT shows how existing self-imposed constraints on budgetary operations can be (or are) bypassed in reality. This leads us to question, however, concerning what those self-imposed constraints are doing there in the first place. Are they there by design and, if so, why? Or are they there by accident (and, if so, how in the world did this happen)?
ET: Yes consolidation is not unique to MMT as we have said repeatedly. Not only is it used quite commonly in the economic literature, but also it is a common rhetorical tool in economic talks, discourse, etc.
DA: Right, so everyone understands this (at least, they should)--it's perfectly consistent with standard monetary theory. So far, so good.
ET: Most economists, politicians and the public don't understand this or its implications. They will interpret the above as saying that it is obvious that the government can create money but it is not a normal way to proceed and it is inflationary. MMT just pushes consolidation to its logical conclusions and shows that institutional details do back those conclusions. In a consolidated framework, the federal government can only implement spending by creating money, this is not abnormal and it is not inflationary by itself. There is no other way to find the necessary dollars to spend. Here is what consolidation means in terms of balance sheets:
For the federal government, taxes destroy currency (L1 falls) and claims on non-fed sectors falls (A1 falls) (an alternative offsetting operation is net worth of government rises). When US spends, it credits accounts (L1 rises). Similarly, bond issuance does not lead to a gain of any asset for the government; all it does is replace a non-interest earning government liability (monetary base) with an interest-earning government liability (Treasury securities).
DA: I am not going to argue against your accounting. As for bond-issuance, in SMT, an open-market operation is modeled as a swap of zero-interest reserves for interest-bearing treasuries. The interest on treasuries is explained by their relative illiquidity (another self-imposed constraint). The economic consequences of such a swap depends on a host of factors, which I'm sure you're familiar with.
ET: Sure, in addition, self-imposed financial constraints (e.g. debt ceiling, no direct financing by the Fed, no monetary power for treasury) have been put in place at various times with the argument that they impose discipline in public finances. MMT argues, these financial constraints are not necessary and are bypassed routinely through Treasury-Central Bank coordination.
DA: Sure, the standard view is that these self-imposed constraints are designed to impose discipline in public finance. The proposition that these financial constraints are or are not necessary, however, must be based on a set of assumptions that may or may not be satisfied in reality. (The fact that these constraints may be bypassed through Treasury-Central Bank coordination does not seem relevant to me -- the conflict emphasized by SMT is between an "independent" central bank and the legislative authority (e.g., the Fed and Congress, not the Fed and Treasury). I'm not sure why a new theory is needed here. We know, for example, that if the legislative branch of government fully trusts itself (and future elected representatives) to behave in a fiscally responsible manner, the notion of an "independent" central bank (and other self-imposed constraints) makes little sense.
ET: Remember that MMT emphasizes the irrelevance of financial/nominal constraints for monetarily sovereign governments (bond vigilantes, risk of insolvency of social security, etc.). One can do that by using the consolidated government (taxes don't finance, bonds don't finance, government spends by crediting accounts, etc.) or by using the unconsolidated government (the central bank helps the Treasury, the Treasury helps the central bank). The second method conforms to actual federal government operations but it is much less easy to use rhetorically and it waters down the core point: government finances are never a financial issue as long as monetary sovereignty applies.
Given that point, as you note, financial constraints are not only irrelevant, but also disruptive and used for political games. MMT wants to make government financial operations as smooth and flexible as possible. Once society has decided how, and to what degree, government should be involved in solving socioeconomic problems, finding the money should not be an issue when monetary sovereignty prevails. That means demystifying and eliminating financial barriers to government operations so the political debate can focus on solving real issues (environment issues, socio-economic issues, etc.). Fearmongering about the public debt and fiscal deficits makes for poor political debates and policy prescriptions.
There is a view, expressed by Paul Samuelson, that if we tell policymakers and the public that there are no financial limits to government spending, policymakers will spend like mad; therefore, economists need to lie to policymakers and the public (and themselves). This is nonsense. We ought to discuss policy choices not on the basis of Noble Lies but rather on the basis of sound and informed premises. Economists needs to make sure that policymakers focus on resource constraints.
In addition, political constraints on government should be geared toward improving the transparency and participatory aspects of government (e.g. limit role of big money in elections, limit wastes, etc.). We already have a government that passes a budget (it needs to do so for transparency and accountability purposes), we already have an auditing process, and we already have some (limited) democratic process, so aim at improving these aspects. MMT proponents are not naive, we know that some politicians are self-interested, we know that policy implementation may lead to mistakes, we know people may try to game the system ("free riders"); however we trust that a transparent and democratic government can (and does) get through these issues. MMT does not see financial constraints as helping in any ways, rather they inhibit the democratic process.
Of course, MMT proponents also have a policy agenda (Job guarantee, financial regulation based on Minsky, etc.) because we do not see market mechanisms as self-promoting full employment, price stability and financial stability. As such, as you said, MMT proponents favor alternative means to achieve these goals through direct government intervention. We don't see the central bank as an effective means to promote price stability. The central bank should focus on financial stability through interest-rate stabilization and financial regulation (an area where the Fed has not performed well).
Finally, yes independence of the central bank is seen as a big deal but MMT disagrees for two reasons. First, MMT emphasizes the lack of effectiveness of monetary policy in managing the business cycle and, second, and probably more importantly, MMT notes that central-bank independence in terms of interest-rate setting and goal settings does not mean independence from the financial needs of the Treasury.
DA: I think it's fair to say most people want to see government operations run smoothly, and would welcome a sober debate over the issues at hand without the fear-mongering that some like to promote. The broad objective seems the same--the debate is more over implementation--how monetary and fiscal policy is to be coordinated--given human frailties.
Having said this, I think you go too far by asserting that "government finances are never an issue as long as monetary sovereignty applies." Of course, technical default on nominal debt is not an issue (we all understand this). But SMT also recognizes the importance of economic default on nominal debt. True, a government can always print money to satisfy its nominal debt obligation, but if money printing dilutes the purchasing power of money, this is a de facto default.
On a related issue, SMT asks "what are the limits to seigniorage?" The fact that a government can print money does not give it the power to command resources without constraint. People can (and do) find substitutes for government money (they may also substitute out of taxed activities into non-taxed activities). SMT treats the limits to seigniorage as a financial constraint. Maybe MMT has a different label for this constraint? Perhaps it is related to what I hear MMT proponents call an "inflation constraint." Maybe one way to reconcile MMT with SMT on this score is by recognizing that SMT usually assumes (sometimes incorrectly) that the inflation constraint is always binding. If this is the case, a monetarily-sovereign government does have a financial constraint, even according to MMT.
ET: Yes, ability to create a currency does not mean ability to command resources because there may not be a demand for the currency. That is where tax liabilities and other dues owed to the government become important (cf. the chartalist theory of money, a component of MMT). That's also why taxes, monetary creation and bond issuance are not conceptualized by MMT as alternative financing means but rather as complementary. The government imposes a tax liability, spends by issuing the currency necessary to pay the tax liability, then taxes and issues bonds. Spending may be inflationary indeed and so there is an inflation constraint; but it is not a financial constraint, it is a resource constraint.
About the "printing" of money by government, inflation and economic default. Regarding the first two, there is no evidence of an automatic relation between money and inflation. In a consolidated view, government always spends by monetary creation but controls the impact on inflation via taxes and the impact on interest rates via bond issuance. In an unconsolidated view, the central bank routinely finances and refinances the Treasury by helping some of the auction bidders and by participating in the auction.
Finally, regarding economic default, governments routinely "default" in that sense with no problems. I don't see that as a relevant concept unless someone can show that economic default raises interest rates or generates rising inflation (it does not); here again, there is no automatic link between inflation and interest rates. That link depends on how the central bank reacts; if it does not then market participants don't either.
DA: Let me return to the manner in which the Fed/Treasury/Congress are consolidated (or not) in SMT and why this matters, in your view. In some SMT treatments, Congress decides spending and taxes, which implies a primary deficit. It's up to the Treasury to finance that deficit, with the Fed playing a supporting role (by determining interest rate and issuing reserves for treasury debt). What's wrong with this approach?
ET: That goes in the right direction with an understanding that the government really has no control over its fiscal position. All this, which relates to the implementation of monetary sovereignty, helps understand why the financial crowding out is not operative, why monetary financing is not by definition inflationary, why i > g is normal. It helps explain why the hysterical rhetoric surrounding the public debt and deficits in nonsense. I recently wrote a piece for Challenge Magazine on that topic. Surpluses are celebrated, governments implement austerity during a recession to "live within our means", Social Security needs to be fixed to avoid bankrupting it, governments need to save more, etc. All of this is incorrect.
DA: I'm not sure why you claim SMT leads to the idea of i > g. The case i < g is perfectly consistent with SMT (see Blanchard's 2019 AEA Presidential address, and also my posts here and here). The correct criticism (I think) is that mainstream economists have assumed i > g as being the empirically relevant case (it is not).
ET: That is what I meant. MMT links that to monetary sovereignty.
DA: I think that's correct. I should like to add that mainstream economists (apart from a small set of monetary theorists) have not appreciated the role of high-grade sovereign debt as an exchange medium in wholesale financial markets and as a global store of value, which in my view likely explains a lot of the "missing inflation." But as for "surpluses being celebrated," you are now talking about individual viewpoints and not SMT per se. There were plenty of calls out there for countercyclical fiscal policy based on standard macroeconomic principles. But I do agree virtually all mainstream economists are (perhaps overly) concerned about "long-run fiscal sustainability." The view is that at the end of the day, stuff has to be paid for -- and that having the ability to print money, while granting an extra degree of flexibility, does not get around this basic fact.
DA: I'd like to ask you about this statement you make:
In (the unconsolidated) case, the Treasury collects taxes and issues securities before it can spend. However, federal taxes and bond offerings also serve another highly important function that is overlooked in standard monetary economics. Specifically, federal taxes and bond offerings result in a drainage of funds from the banking system, and MMT carefully analyzes the implication of this fact. From that analysis, MMT argues that federal taxes and bond offerings are best conceptualized as devices that maintain price and interest-rate stability, respectively (of course, the tax structure also has some important role to play in terms of influencing incentives and income distribution; something not disputed by MMT).
DA: Well, yes, taxes serve both as a revenue device (permitting the government to gain control over resources that would otherwise be in control of the private sector) and as a way to control inflation. I'm not sure about the idea of the Treasury offering bonds for the purpose of achieving interest-rate stability (though this may happen to some extent when the treasury determines which maturity to offer). I don't think this is the way things work in the U.S. today.
ET: Taxes and issuance of treasuries drain reserves and so raise the overnight rate. Hence, on a daily basis, a fiscal surplus raises the overnight rate and a fiscal deficit lowers it. There has been significant Treasury-Fed coordination to smooth the impact of taxes (and treasury spending) on the money market.
DA: Fine, but so what? We all understand "coordination" between Fed and Treasury exists at the operational level.
ET: I think you are too kind to other economists and policymakers. On taxes as price-stabilizing factors, there is indeed some similarities here. On the role of treasuries for interest-rate stability, it does work like this today. It may not be obvious because of the current emphasis on treasuries as Treasury's budgetary tools, but Treasury has issued securities for other purposes than its budgetary needs. In the US, this occurred most recently during the 2008 crisis (SFP bills). In Australia, in the early 2000s, the Treasury issued securities while running surpluses in order to promote financial stability.
DA: But even if this is not the way things actually work (in my view, it's the Fed that stabilizes interest rates, possibly through OMOs involving U.S. Treasuries), I'm not sure what point is being made. I think we can all agree that monetary and fiscal policy can be thought of as being consolidated in some manner. What would be good to know is how a specific MMT consolidation matters (relative to other specifications) for a specific set of questions being addressed. There is nothing in the abstract or introduction of this paper that suggests an answer to this question.
ET: The point being made is that in a consolidated government, tax and bond issuance lose the financial purpose they have for the Treasury but keep their price and interest-stability purposes.
DA: In standard monetary theory, tax and bond issuance keeps its funding purposes for the government and at the same time can be used to influence the price-level (inflation) and interest rates. Is this wrong? I don't think so. At some level, taxes (a vacuum cleaner sucking up money from the private sector) must have some implications for the ability of government to exert command over real resources in the economy. What we label this ability (whether "funding" or ''finance" or whatever, seems inconsequential).
ET: Ok here comes the crucial difference between financial and real sides of the economy. In financial terms, taxes do not increase the capacity of the government to spend, i.e. the government does not earn any money from taxing; taxes destroy the currency. In financial terms, there is no reason to fear a fiscal deficit; deficits are the norm, are sustainable and help other sectors grow their financial net wealth. As such, it is not because a government wants to spend more that it must tax more or lower spending somewhere else. That is the PAYGO mentality. This mentality makes policymakers think of spending and taxing in terms of how they impact the fiscal balance instead of their impact on employment, inflation, incentives, etc. While deficits may have negative consequences, they are not automatic. If one takes a look at the evidence, deficits have no automatic negative impacts on interest rates, tax rates, public-debt sustainability, or inflation.
In real terms, the necessity to increase tax rates to prevent inflation, and so move more resources to the government, depends on the state of the economy and the permanency of the increase in government spending relative to the size of the economy. In an underemployed economy, the government can spend more without raising tax rates. In a fully employed economy, shifting resources to the government without generating inflation does require raising tax rate and/or putting in place other measures such as rationing, price controls, and delayed private-income payment. Here Keynes's "How to Pay for the War" provides the roadmap. Standard economics is full-employment economics so opportunity costs are always present. MMT follows Kalecki, Keynes and the work of their followers (have a look at Lavoie's "Foundations of Post Keynesian Economic Analysis") and note that capitalist economies are usually underemployment and economic growth is demand driven. Put in a picture, the economy is usually at point a.
Put succinctly, the real constraint is conditionally relevant, the financial constraint is irrelevant if monetary sovereignty prevails. That is the proper way to frame the policy debates and to advise policymakers; don't worry about the money, worry about how spending impacts the economy.
ET: Moving to another topic, consolidation of the government brings to the forefront forces that are operating in the current system but that are buried under institutional complications. Namely that a fiscal deficit lowers interest rates and treasuries issuance brings them back up, that spending must come before taxing and treasuries issuance, that monetary financing of the government is not intrinsically unsound and does not mean that tax and treasuries issuance don't have to be implemented.
DA: The statement that "deficit lower interest rates" needs considerable qualification. Among other things, it depends on the monetary policy reaction function. As for the claim that spending *must* come before taxes, this is not a universally valid statement (even if it may be true in some circumstances. But even more importantly, who cares? Mainstream theory does not suggest that monetary financing is intrinsically unsound (seigniorage is fine, if it respects inflation ceiling). As for money, taxes and bonds not being alternative "funding" sources, I worry that this semantics. You can call X a "funding" source or not -- it's just a label. The real question is: what are the macroeconomic implications of X?
ET: Let me emphasize where I agree. Yes, evidence shows the central role of monetary policy for the direction of interest rates, fiscal policy is at best a very small driver. And yes, one ought to focus on the real implications of government spending and we ought to forget about the financial implications. A fiscal deficit is not unsustainable nor abnormal; deficits are the stylized fact of government finances and are financially sustainable if monetary sovereignty is present. So don't try to frame the policy debate and set policy in terms of household finances, bankruptcy, fixing the deficit, etc.
To conclude I see three reasons why the "taxes/bonds don't finance the government" rhetoric is helpful:
1- It is strictly true for the federal government (i.e. consolidation).
2- it brings to the forefront some lesser-known aspects of taxes and treasuries issuance: impacts on money market, role of central bank in fiscal policy, role of treasury in monetary policy.
3- It changes the narrative in terms of policy and political economy: government does not rely on the rich to finance itself, taxes should be set to remove the "bads" not to finance the government (e.g. one should not set tax rates on pollution with the goal of balancing the budget but with the goal of curbing pollution to whatever is considered appropriate, that may lead to much higher tax rates than what is needed to balance the budget), PAYGO is insane, one should focus on the real outcomes of government policies not the budgetary outcomes.
DA:
1. I think this is semantics.
2. Not sure how it helps in this regard.
3. I think all of these positions are defensible without the statement "taxes/bonds don't finance the government", so if this is the ultimate goal (and I think it should be), perhaps we should set aside semantic debates and focus on the real issues at hand.
ET: 1 is not semantic. I know you have in mind taxes as a means to leave resources to the government. MMT makes a clear difference between financial (ability to find the money) and resources constraint (ability to get the goods and services) as explained above. The financial constraint is highly relevant for non-monetarily sovereign governments so it should be noted and clearly separated from the real constraint. Too many policy discussions and decisions by policymakers operating under monetary sovereignty are based on an inexistent inability to find money and the imagined dear financial consequences of budgeting fiscal deficits. 2 helps to understand how monetary sovereignty is implemented in practice. On 3, yes focus on the real issues.
DA: We agree on 3! Thank you for an interesting discussion, Eric. There's so much more to talk about, but let's leave that for another day.
Engr. Luis L. León sends a letter to Gen. Plutarco Elías Calles giving news of his daily life, the sale of his house to settle the debts and the serious economic situation of the country. He analyzes the agricultural situation and states that productivity has decreased. He claims that farmers and "ejidatarios" need stability and guarantees from the government. He states it is necessary to enforce the law, respect small properties, stablish the legal bases to give and restitute "ejidos"and respect the property of harvests, buildings and tools. He claims that the government is moving to the extreme left, which is provoking chaos in agriculture. Memorandum signed by Juárez on March 31, 1938 in which he analyzes the economic situation since 1932. He states that commerce increased until 1937 and then it started to decrease. He also claims that agriculture is in crisis due to corruption and a disorganized structure. Regarding financial policies, he states there has been serious mistakes in the administration of public funds. The author analyzes the agricultural situation as well as the situation of the workers and worker unions. He states group interests are favored, which causes distrust, unproductiveness and discouragement. On the other hand, he states that the government is using funds of institutions such as Bank of Mexico and National Railroads for government programs, which in addition to the oil expropriation is creating a disturbing scenario. The author analyzes the situation of the Bank of Mexico, the monetary system, the National Railroads, industry, mining, and silver and oil production. Juárez obtained the information from the Bulletin of the National Bank Commission from November to December 1937. In October 1939, Gen. Plutarco Elías Calles sends a letter to Luis L. León discussing the report by Juárez. However, he refers to an analysis of the European conflict, which is not mentioned in the previous report. Therefore, he is probably refering to a different report presented by Juárez. Gen. Plutarco Elías Calles analyzes the European conflict and press articles published in London in which David Lloyd George; former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom talks about Chamberlain and Churchill. Gen. Plutarco Elías Calles also discusses a speech given by Hitler, which according to him, represents an important and clever political document. Gen. Plutarco Elías Calles states that Germany, after the victory in Poland, is not interested in war and that it is necessary to wait to know the position of England and France. He asserts it is likely that the U.S. will work as a mediator. Lastly, he mentions politics in Mexico. Reply by Luis L. León expressing that the perspective of Gen. Plutarco Elías Calles regarding the European conflict is realistic. Engr. Luis L. León sends a letter to Gen. Plutarco Elías Calles regarding the situation in Mexico with the administration of President Manuel Ávila Camacho. He asserts President Manuel Ávila Camacho will work to solve the issues with oil, railroads, agriculture, small property and entitlement of "ejidos". Memorandum related to rubber by Engr. Luis L. León, signed on February 1942 and sent to Mr. Jorge Henríquez in which he informs that due to the war in the Pacific, there is a shortage of rubber. He says it is urgent to establish plantations in intertropical zones to produce rubber. He makes a study of the viability to create a rubber company in Mexico, the investment needed, markets, etc. / El ingeniero Luis L. León escribe al general PEC, que vive en San Diego, Cal., en el exilio, comentando los problemas de su vida cotidiana, la venta de su casa para pagar deudas, lo grave de su situación económica que es reflejo de la del país, ya que no hay crédito y la moneda no tiene estabilidad, con lo que el clima de desconfianza es generalizado. En seguida analiza la situación de la agricultura, cuya productividad ha disminuido notablemente lo que está creando una corriente de opinión a favor del respeto a la pequeña propiedad porque algunos se dan cuenta de que el agrarismo es destructor y anárquico; la agricultura como actividad económica para ganarse la vida requiere seguridad y garantía por parte del estado más aún en un país tan individualista como el nuestro, donde el agricultor si no tiene certidumbre en la propiedad de su parcela no siembra. Lo mismo el pequeño propietario que el ejidatario si no hay garantía baja su producción. El remedio para estos males es hacer cumplir la ley, respetar la pequeña propiedad, y las bases legales para la tramitación de dotación y restitución de ejidos; respetar la propiedad de cosechas, aperos, edificaciones y herramientas. Que el campo y sus productos no sean botín de líderes, caciques y burócratas. Pero este programa no es el vigente para los altos mandos del gobierno que cada vez avanza más hacia la extrema izquierda sin que nadie oponga firme resistencia al agrarismo a ultranza que sólo ha provocado caos y anarquía en el campo. Memorándum firmado por Juárez y fechado el 31 de marzo de 1938 en el que analiza los diferentes rubros de la economía nacional desde el crecimiento y desarrollo que tuvo en 1932 cuando adquirió un impulso que se mantiene a pesar de la política social extremista que se ha ido poniendo en práctica. el comercio y la industria crecieron y se desarrollaron en forma sostenida hasta 1937 cuando, afirma, se inicia un descenso serio. La agricultura está en grave crisis provocada por una acción agraria demagógica, corrupta y desorganizada. En cuanto a las políticas financiera y económica del país se han cometido errores fundamentales en el manejo de los fondos públicos. El autor analiza la situación del campo, de los empresarios, de la industria, de la clase trabajadora, de los sindicatos, etc., que se manejan con demagogia, favoreciendo intereses de grupúsculos sobre los de los actores reales de la economía, lo que ha provocado desconfianza, improductividad y desánimo. Por otro lado el gobierno aumenta impuestos, echa mano de los fondos de instituciones que siempre habían sido respetadas como El Banco de México o Ferrocarriles para allegarse fondos que destina a proyectos populistas; y si a ello se agrega la expropiación petrolera con todo lo que conlleva: disminución de la producción, de los impuestos que pagaban las compañías, pago de nómina, etc., además del descrédito internacional, el panorama es desolador. De acuerdo con las estadísticas publicadas y los informes que tiene a la mano expone y analiza la situación del Banco de México, del Sistema Monetario, del crédito, de los Ferrocarriles, de la industria, la minería y de la producción de plata y de petróleo. Maneja números, datos, estadísticas, utilidades, pérdidas, pasivos y activos; Juárez obtiene la información del Boletín de la Comisión Nacional Bancaria, de noviembre y diciembre de 1937. En octubre de 1939 el general PEC escribe a Luis L. León comentando el informe de Juárez pero da a entender también que en el mismo se analiza el conflicto europeo, así como la situación económica nacional y el informe de Juárez que aparece en este expediente no menciona la situación europea, por lo que debe referirse a otro. El general PEC sí hace a Luis L. León un análisis del conflicto europeo; de artículos de prensa aparecidos en Londres en los que David Lloyd George, ex primer ministro inglés cuando la Primera Guerra Mundial, quien hace una requisitoria contra la política de Chamberlain y los exaltados estilos de Churchill; también comenta un discurso de Hitler que según el general PEC es el documento político más hábil, medular y de mayor importancia en los últimos tiempos en el que hace un llamado a la paz y propone un arreglo definitivo a todos los conflictos europeos. Afirma que Alemania ha demostrado, después de su conquista de Polonia, que no tiene interés en la matanza, por lo que la guerra se encuentra en estado de quietud, que hay que esperar las posturas de Inglaterra y Francia. Comenta la actitud de Rusia ante la toma de Polonia, cuya atracción por los Balcanes no es posible ignorar. Afirma que es posible que Estados Unidos entre como entidad mediadora, con lo que es posible se llegue a un arreglo que evite el cataclismo. Por último al comentar la política mexicana asegura que las perspectivas son halagadoras. Respuesta de Luis L. León afirmando que la percepción del general PEC sobre el conflicto europeo es realista y clara y sus apreciaciones apegadas a la verdad. El ingeniero Luis L. León escribe al general PEC con optimismo respecto a la situación del país con el nuevo gobierno del Presidente Ávila Camacho, quien corregirá los errores que han sumido al país en la bancarrota y la desorganización: que la Hacienda Pública enfrenta un terrible déficit; los ferrocarriles, petróleo, servicios, agricultura, etc., enfrentan grandes problemas, que tendrán que ir solucionándose. En cuanto a la producción agrícola, la política agraria demagógica y caótica ha provocado una disminución de la producción, todos estos problemas parece que don Manuel los enfrenta con serenidad y ponderación ya que no ha perseguido a nadie, sus acciones se han encaminado a sustraer al Ejército de la política; a liberar a los Ferrocarriles del caos; a dar un programa a las dependencias del gobierno; ha instaurado medidas de respeto a la pequeña propiedad y de transparencia al manejo de titulación de parcelas ejidales a fin de dar garantías al hombre del campo. Todas las medidas tienden a restablecer la confianza perdida después del gobierno cardenista que llevó al país al desorden y a la debilidad económica. "Memorándum sobre hule" elaborado por el ingeniero Luis L. León, firmado en México en febrero de 1942, y dirigido a la atención del señor Jorge Henríquez en el que expone que a causa de la guerra del Pacífico se presenta en América una terrible escasez de hule o caucho al grado que ya se anuncia el control y racionamiento de artículos fabricados con este material, que la crisis tiende a agudizarse por lo que es urgente establecer plantaciones de árboles productores de hule en regiones intertropicales para producir el hule que se consume en el continente y hace un estudio de la viabilidad y éxito de crear una industria del hule con plantaciones en México; la inversión necesaria, el plazo de recuperación de la misma, los mercados, etc. El estudio se divide en tres partes. La primera se refiere a la plantación de árboles de hule, qué países lo producen, cuáles lo consumen y qué cantidades y en qué condiciones está México a ese respecto. Concluye que el negocio es remunerativo en México siempre que se plantee sobre bases económicas y de técnica agrícola moderna. La segunda parte analiza las posibilidades de plantar hule en México de acuerdo con su clima y tierras; qué tipo de planta sería la más conveniente y cuál es el estado de las plantaciones de hule en México; y la posibilidad de cultivos alternos. Concluye que México es un país indicado para hacer plantaciones huleras, que tiene regiones propicias para ello y aconseja qué tipo de planta debe considerarse de acuerdo a su productividad y cómo debe ser el cultivo para alcanzar el mayor provecho posible. Por último en el tercer capítulo analiza cuáles son las bases sobre las que debe planearse una explotación hulera para atraerse la fuerte inversión de capitales que requiere. En las conclusiones hace una síntesis de sus propuestas y soluciones.
