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Pension funds in some economies are used as a captive audience to channel capital at below market rates to government. This policy is only one tool in the financial repression toolkit, but it is receiving increased attention as governments around the world struggle to increase fiscal space and reduce their sovereign debt burden as they rebuild their economies after the pandemic. First, this paper provides an analysis of financial repression using pension funds from a historical perspective. It then assesses the welfare and distributional implications of this policy and distills lessons learned from a variety of advanced and emerging economies. The wide range of possible interventions and idiosyncratic country conditions make a general set of policy recommendations elusive, but the paper suggests four high-level principles that can help policymakers assess the costs and benefits of implementing policies that employ pension funds as a captive audience for financial repression. 1

Although the Icelandic general labour market pension funds are built on the proviso that pension schemes are fully funded these funds are still grappling with the devastating financial effects of the 2008 economic collapse that rendered most of them in a significant actuarial deficit. The public sector pension funds are based on an employer guarantee that makes up for any lack of funding that historically has been quite significant. We identify the relatively high actuarial discount rate and increasing longevity as two factors that add to the vulnerability of the Icelandic pension system. We present a stochastic model in order to obtain reasonably sound estimates of the effect of revising such key parameters of the actuarial assessments of the pension funds and thus obtain a view of the viability of the Icelandic pension system when confronted with the potential necessity of such parameter shifts. We present results of stochastic simulations of this models made to assess effects of changes in these major financial and demographic assumptions in actuarial evaluations of pension fund balances. Our results suggest that the Icelandic pension funds may be significantly less well funded than is generally perceived.

Evaluates plan by which private companies manage the future pensions of workers, in terms of its impact on the economy and on wage earners, noting that half of all low-paid workers are not included.