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Well-known as the father of utilitarian philosophy, Jeremy Bentham (1748-1832) is less well-known as a pioneer theorist of public opinion. His work on the subject in the early 19th century was the first to tolerate the indeterminacy of public opinion in a liberal democracy. Where previous theorists had tried to specify the content of a "true" or "correct" public opinion, & most did so by imposing conditions on membership in "the public," Bentham argued that the public opinion necessary in a representative democracy must be unfettered & inclusive. For Bentham, the Public Opinion Tribunal, constantly judging government, was the most important social institution in preventing "misrule." As a liberal, Bentham championed public opinion as inherently progressive: he thought it would eventually coincide with his utilitarian ethical standard, the greatest happiness of the greatest number. Its operation, however, depends on the freedom of the press to investigate & publicize government actions to facilitate a form of public debate mediated through newspapers. Considered broadly, Bentham's public opinion has much in common with the arguments of much recent empirical work on the subject. His theory, however, is dated by its inability to adequately consider some of the problems that occupy modern theorists of public opinion: deliberation, rational ignorance, media vacuity or manipulation, & the tyranny of the majority. 50 References. Adapted from the source document.

Abstract.As compared with federal and provincial elections, municipal elections in Canada present voters with challenges of informational quantity and quality. These unique challenges have implications for the psychological structure of citizens' voting calculus. Using a survey of voters conducted after the city of Vancouver civic election of 2002, we estimate a model of vote choice for mayor. We show that voters respond to the different context in predictable ways: their choices are determined largely by ideological orientations and provincial partisanship, with local economic evaluations and local issues playing only a very small role.Résumé.Si on les compare aux élections fédérales et provinciales, les élections municipales au Canada posent, pour les électeurs, des problèmes d'accès à une information de qualité en quantité suffisante. Ces défis particuliers ont un impact sur la structure psychologique de leurs stratégies de vote. Nous estimerons ici un modèle de choix d'un candidat au poste de maire à l'aide des données d'un sondage effectué après les élections municipales de Vancouver de 2002. Nous démontrerons que les électeurs répondent à ce contexte différent de manière prévisible : leurs choix sont déterminés principalement par leur orientation idéologique et leur soutien partisan au niveau provincial, alors que l'évaluation de l'état de l'économie locale et les questions de politique locale ne jouent qu'un rôle limité.

AbstractWe propose a new, unified approach for comparative research on citizens' satisfaction with democracy (SWD). It starts with a well-specified individual-level model of the considerations citizens draw upon when answering the SWD survey question. Then we specify the relationship from contextual factors (especially institutions) through these individual-level mediating considerations and on to the SWD attitude. Multilevel structural equation estimation is applied to a merged dataset of European Social Survey (ESS) and country-level contextual data. The results add solidity to theoretical and empirical findings that citizens' judgments of democracy are driven mostly by policy outputs and lived experience and not much by institutional variation or its political consequences.

AbstractVoters are deterred from casting a vote and more likely to vote strategically if their preferred choice is less competitive in their electoral district. We use 2019 Canadian Election Study data to show that respondents' answers to a "how likely are you to vote" question depend on their estimate of their preferred party's local chances of winning, relative to other parties. This deterrent effect on turnout from the competitiveness of a voter's preferred party is concentrated among certain parties (NDP, Green, People's Party of Canada). Under first-past-the-post (FPTP), voters with particular policy perspectives are systematically deterred from voting, relative to other voters. Furthermore, we find that despite supporters of all parties having an incentive to vote strategically if their party is outside the top two in the district, strategic voting is heavily concentrated among voters who prefer parties other than the nationally most competitive two parties.

Abstract.Although "horserace journalism" is thought to be central to contemporary election news coverage and has generated a great deal of criticism, there is no general model of the nature and dynamics of horserace journalism or "poll reporting." This paper proposes and empirically evaluates such a model. The model builds on and extends John Zaller's "theory of media politics" to consider specifically what citizens demand from polls and what journalists supply. Aside from the generic motivations of politicians, citizens and journalists, the model emphasizes the unique features of polls as objects of news coverage. The paper finds considerable support for the model in an analysis of newspaper coverage of horserace polls (that is, vote intention polls) in the Canadian general election of 2006. Our findings from this one case have potentially broad implications for our understanding of the relationship between polls and electoral democracy both empirically and normatively.Résumé.Même si le journalisme de course ("horserace journalism") est vu comme étant une composante centrale de la couverture électorale et qu'il a généré sa part de critiques, il n'existe pas de modèle général de la nature et de la dynamique de ce type de journalisme. Cet article propose, et évalue empiriquement, un tel modèle. Prenant comme point de départ la « Theory of Media Politics » de John Zaller, ce modèle considère plus spécifiquement ce que les citoyens demandent des sondages et ce que les journalistes leurs procurent. Au-delà des motivations génériques des politiciens, citoyens et journalistes, le modèle met l'accent sur les caractéristiques uniques des sondages en tant qu'objet de couverture journalistique. L'article présente des résultats supportant considérablement le modèle à travers une analyse de la couverture des sondages par les journaux (c'est-à-dire des sondages sur les intentions de vote) durant l'élection générale canadienne de 2006. Nos résultats émanant de ce cas ont potentiellement des implications beaucoup plus grandes pour notre compréhension de la relation entre les sondages et la démocratie électorale, à la fois sur le plan empirique et sur le plan normatif.