Search results

AbstractThis study tends to examine the moderated mediation role of external locus of control (ELC) and risk tolerance (RT) in the relationship between heuristic availability bias (HAB) and investment decision‐making (IDM). We used SPSS PROCESS Model 7 (moderated mediation) on a data set gleaned from 385 practicing stock investors at Pakistan Stock Exchange. The results of the study revealed that the relationship between HAB and IDM is partially mediated by RT, whereas, the ELC significantly moderates the relationship between HAB and RT. Moreover, in the case of moderated mediation, the ELC showed a significant moderating role in the relationship of HAB with IDM through RT. Since the findings of the study argue that ELC intensifies the influence of HAB on investors' risk‐taking propensity that inculcate them toward making investment decisions. The practical and theoretical implications of the study are discussed in detail.

"The Role of Analogies in Crisis Decision Making" published on by Oxford University Press.

Media effects on risk perception have often been explained by Tversky and Kahneman's availability principle, but research has not consistently supported it. What seem like media effects based on availability may be effects of new information. In an experimental study, entertainment movies depicting dramatic risk events were shown. They were found to produce no average effects on perceived risks in spite of large mood effects and being perceived as credible. We found, however, evidence of idiosyncratic effects of the movies, that is, people reacted immediately after the movies with enhanced or diminished risk beliefs. These reactions had faded after 10 days. Implications for the availability heuristic and risk perception are discussed.

It is broadly assumed that political elites (e.g. party leaders) regularly rely on heuristics in their judgments or decision-making. In this article, I aim to bring together and discuss the scattered literature on this topic. To address the current conceptual unclarity, I discuss two traditions on heuristics: (1) the heuristics and biases (H&B) tradition pioneered by Kahneman and Tversky and (2) the fast and frugal heuristics (F&F) tradition pioneered by Gigerenzer et al. I propose to concentrate on two well-defined heuristics from the H&B tradition—availability and representativeness—to empirically assess when political elites rely on heuristics and thereby understand better their judgments and decisions. My review of existing studies supports the notion that political elites use the availability heuristic and possibly the representativeness one for making complex decisions under uncertainty. It also reveals that besides this, we still know relatively little about when political elites use which heuristic and with what effect(s). Therefore, I end by proposing an agenda for future research.

The availability heuristic — a cognitive rule of thumb whereby events that are easily brought to mind are judged to be more likely — is employed by decision-makers on a daily basis. Availability campaigns occur when individuals and groups strategically exploit this cognitive tendency in order to generate publicity for a particular issue, creating pressure to effect legislative change. This paper is the first to argue that environmental availability campaigns are more beneficial than they are harmful. Because they result in pressure on Congress, these campaigns serve as a catalyst for the enactment of critical new legislative initiatives. Specifically, these campaigns streamline the legislative process by: (1) determining in a transparent and nonarbitrary manner which issues receive attention; (2) overcoming some of the undesirable barriers to the enactment of new initiatives; and (3) encouraging efficient, bipartisan cooperation to pass vital legislation and regulation. Availability campaigns have resulted in critically valuable directives such as the DDT ban, Superfund, and the Oil Pollution Act. Although the primary focus of this paper is environmental legislation, availability campaigns may have benefits in a wide variety of other areas of law and regulation.