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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is twofold: the authors initially survey a sample of literature published after the Great Recession that address macroeconomic and commercial real estate forecasting methods related to the Great Recession and compare significant lessons learned, or lack thereof. The authors then seek to identify new models to improve the predictability of commercial real estate early warning signals regarding cyclical turning points which result in negative appreciation rates.Design/methodology/approachThe authors develop a probit model to estimate quarterly probabilities of negative office appreciation returns using an alternative methodology to Tsolacoet al.(2014). The authors' alternative method incorporates generally publicly available macroeconomic and real estate variables such as gross domestic product, office-related employment sectors, cap rate spreads, and commercial mortgage flow of funds into a probit model in order to estimate the probability of future quarterly negative office appreciation rates.FindingsThe authors' models demonstrate the predictive power of macroeconomic variables typically associated with office demand. The probit model specification shows probabilities of negative office appreciations rates greater than 50 percent either as the quarterly office returns become negative, or in some cases several quarters before office returns become negative, for both the Great Recession and the recession occurring in the early 1990s. The models fail to show probabilities greater than 50 percent of negative office returns until after they occur for the recession in 2001. While this indicates need for further improvement in early warning models, the models do predict the more severe periods of negative office returns in advance, indicating the findings useful to real estate investors to monitor the changes in economic and real estate data identified as statistically significant in the results.Practical implicationsThe Great Recession is a unique laboratory of significant contractions, recessions, and recoveries that challenge pre-recessionary real estate cycle models. The models provide guidance on which historical economic indicators are important to track, and gives a framework with which to calculate the probability that office prices are likely to decline. Because the models use macroeconomic indicators that are publicly available from at least one quarter in the past, the models or variations of them may provide real estate professionals with some indication of an impending decrease in office prices, even if that indication comes only one quarter in advance. Armed with this information, property owners, investors, and brokers can make more informed decisions on whether to buy or sell, and how sensitive their real estate transactions may be to timing.Originality/valueThe authors introduce several new models that examine the ability of historical macroeconomic indicators to provide early warning signals and identify turning points in real estate valuations, specifically negative office appreciation rates caused by the Great Recession. Using data from at least one quarter in the past, all the data in the models are publicly available (excluding National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries data) at the observed return quarter being predicted, which gives practitioners rational insights that can provide at least one source of guidance about the likelihood of an impending decrease in office prices.

This thesis explores the social meaning and function of what is known as avant-garde, or constructivist, housing estates located in central Moscow. Five of these estates – Budenovsky, Dubrovka, Khavsko-Shabolovsky, Nizhnyaya Presnya and Usachevka – comprise the empirical foci of the study. Built in the late 1920s, the avant-garde estates are the architectonic expression of specific ideals about everyday life and collective living for Soviet citizens. Exploring the avant-garde housing in their current post-Soviet setting, the thesis analyses the lived and social experiences of their residents in the mundane fabric of everyday life, against the backdrop of structural societal forces and the sweep of historical changes occurring in the built environment. Theoretically, the study draws on phenomenologically informed humanistic geography scholarship as well as Henri Lefebvre's Marxist analysis of everyday life and social space. Empirically, the analysis is based on semi-structured interviews with local residents, including walking interviews, and interviews with architecture historians and preservation activists, as well as a survey, a range of historical sources and state register data. The findings show that residents, in relation to the spatial, architectural and design features of their housing estates, make sense of their residencies as home places, thereby transcending the official historical and cultural heritage narratives. Furthermore, associated with the restructuring of housing markets in post-Soviet Moscow, the change in social (housing) relations has had a clear effect on the physical and social space of the estates, leading to novel patterns of place-based socialisation and politicisation. The thesis also demonstrates how residents rediscover the historical meanings and underpinnings of avant-garde housing in the course of their daily lives, showcasing the awareness and possibility of envisioning housing as a fundamental social right built with human needs, not profits, in mind. This study should be of special interest to those concerned with housing and urban planning, urban history, residential architecture and urban phenomenology. It is also an invitation to revisit and actualise the humanistic tradition in current human geography studies.

This book provides a comprehensive overview of Private Equity (PE) financing in the infrastructure and real estate sectors. In doing so, it analyzes the impact of such investments in the two sectors, evaluates the types of financing strategies, and explores the value created by such investments. Infrastructure and Real Estate have emerged as a significant asset class for PE investors. In the last three decades, PE firms have invested significant amounts of capital in infrastructure and real estate sectors which did not feature in their radar before 2000. Between 2000 and 2009, PE firms invested more than USD 200 billion in infrastructure. Real estate sector also witnessed investments of a similar scale as that of infrastructure. Fundraising for infrastructure and real estate was about USD 100 billion and USD 150 billion respectively in 2019, setting new records and reaching all-time highs. This book examines such PE investments both at a global level and at an emerging economy level, to identify how PE firms have created an impact with their investments, to provide both ready capital and value-addition to sectors which seem to urgently need both. The book is divided into three sections impact of PE investments, strategies used by PE firms, and value created by such investments. The findings of this research and the corresponding best practices are useful and applicable to students, academicians, researchers, financial institutions, policy makers and law makers, commercial banks and funding agencies, practitioners, the Government, and other parties who are directly or indirectly associated with the development of infrastructure and real estate; and could aid funding agencies, practitioners and policy makers who are directly responsible for creating and developing infrastructure and real estate for their economies.

Indonesia responds to the urgency of the threat of food crisis by developing national food estate. According to reports released by FAO and United Nations, the Covid-19 pandemic has the potential to threaten more than 50 million people towards extreme poverty. This has an impact on the global food crisis that threatens other countries if they do not take the right steps immediately. Food crisis is one of the non-traditional threats because it has significant impact on lives of many people in a country. Non-traditional threats are defined as security threats that hit a country non-militarily, it can be in the form of issues of climate change, economy, limited resources, disease outbreaks, or food security. Food security can be achieved when access to food can be easily achieved by all elements of society and meets the domestic needs. However, when access to food cannot be easily accessed by public, it creates a potential for a food crisis. This is because food is the primary need of every individual which must be fulfilled at any time so it is a national security issue. Through these problems, the availability of national food security must be guaranteed by the government. Along with high population growth and a pandemic outbreak, national food security and stability is on the verge of limitations. This article aims to explain the development of food estate as Indonesia's strategy in facing the threat of food crisis in the next few years. This research used qualitative analysis method to understand the urgency of the development of food estate as a way for Indonesia to face the threat of food crisis by using the theory of threats, food security, and food estate. In this case, Jokowi responded to the threat of the food crisis by building national food estate in Central Kalimantan. The development of national food estate is considered to be able to meet Indonesia's food reserves in the next few years, especially after the pandemic period. The results of the research in this article show that the government sees the potential for the food crisis as a national threat, so it needs measurable steps that can overcome these problems and pay attention to the sustainability aspect in its implementation. Therefore, building a food estate is the right step to answer this challenge.Keywords: non-traditional threat, food crises, food security, food estate, national security

As policymakers rethink the real estate business in the aftermath of the recent jury decision, they may wish to revisit licensing to ensure that consumers actually benefit.

A field study of real estate agents' transactions demonstrates that business friendship affects the negotiation process and the outcome of some transactions more for senior agents with 10 or more years of experience in real estate brokerage than for less experienced agents. Senior agents may have different cognitive scripts for business friendship than do new licensees. Newer agents rely more on friendly relations and on attention to reputation in their transactions, while the more experienced agents consider genuine business friendship useful for facilitating transactions.

Drawing on a unique archive spanning the lifetime of twenty council estate projects in the UK and using hundreds of resident voices, this book reveals the secrets of council housing's failures and successes, and the reasons for them. Bringing to light the complex variety of the lived experiences of residents, it shows how estate pathways were predetermined by factors such as location, design and date, as well as by their local and national social, economic and political contexts. The book highlights what can be learned from some of the successes of less successful housing projects and provides lessons for building sustainable communities in the twenty-first century

Every subject of the Russian Empire had an official, legal place in society marked by his or her social estate, or soslovie. This book looks at the many ways that soslovie affected individual lives, and traces its legislation and administration from the early eighteenth through to the early twentieth century.

Contemporary urbanists and architects are faced with the problem of adapting degraded post-communist neighbourhoods to the current needs of their inhabitants. Most of those housing estates need rehabilitation which is understood as an aspiration for reconstruction of settlement's range as a human-friendly environment and regain it's lost values. A CPTED strategy could be very helpful to define guidelines for the rehabilitation. Based on Crime Prevention through Environmental Design strategy the features of space like natural surveillance, space clarity, territoriality, the feeling of responsibility for public space and management can affect it's quality. These aspects were very useful set of criteria for the author to try to express guidelines for the rehabilitation of the housing estate in Pabianice. Methods used in the research included physical inventory of the neighbourhood and questionnaire survey among the sample of 100 inhabitants of the analysed area. Conclusions from the use of both mentioned methods are well supplementing each other and are pointing the most severe spatil and social problems in the area. This how the environment of the housing estate looks like in the eyes of it's inhabitants and visitors were crucial while shaping guidelines for rehabilitation

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to determine if there is an impact of sustainability on the market in terms of a green premium or a brown discount on the price of commercial and residential real estate. It also seeks to identify the incentives and barriers for sustainable developments perceived by real estate professionals.Design/methodology/approachThe paper investigates the impact of sustainability features on the valuation of buildings in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The study uses a qualitative structured questionnaire to determine the views of certified real estate valuers and advisors on this subject.FindingsThe results suggest a green premium of at least 1% in the UAE, coming from both supply-side and demand-side, and in commercial and residential sectors. Key barriers for the recognition of green building value include availability of reliable market data, lack of relevant technical skills and apparent client disinterest. Initiatives that would encourage green buildings include financial incentives for key stakeholders, raising and enforcing building standards, and higher energy prices. This paper identifies policy measures that local authorities may consider in transforming to a more sustainable economy. It is expected that such changes would convey to the real estate industry and affiliated stakeholders the financial benefits to be gained from investing in green buildings.Research limitations/implicationsThe UAE is not a transparent environment in terms of building prices and rents, and it can be challenging even for experienced professionals to determine whether an observed higher value can truly be considered a green premium. The second issue is that the results may be affected by a "voluntary response bias", whereby recipients who are interested in sustainability are more likely to have responded to the survey.Practical implicationsThis paper identifies policy measures that local authorities may consider in transforming to a more sustainable economy. It is expected that such changes would convey to the real estate industry and affiliated stakeholders the financial benefits to be gained from investing in green buildings.Originality/valueMost research exploring the value of green buildings originates from developed economies and its applicability to the Middle East is questionable due to its differing origins and unusual development path. This article offers new insights into an under-researched market.

The government has commissioned an audit of the Defence estate to look at whether it 'reflects contemporary needs in light of the decision to prioritise investment in Australia's northern network of bases, ports and barracks'. ...