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Researchers and commissions contend that the risk of human extinction is high, but none of these estimates have been based upon a rigorous methodology suitable for estimating existential risks. This article evaluates several methods that could be used to estimate the probability of human extinction. Traditional methods evaluated include: simple elicitation; whole evidence Bayesian; evidential reasoning using imprecise probabilities; and Bayesian networks. Three innovative methods are also considered: influence modeling based on environmental scans; simple elicitation using extinction scenarios as anchors; and computationally intensive possible‐worlds modeling. Evaluation criteria include: level of effort required by the probability assessors; level of effort needed to implement the method; ability of each method to model the human extinction event; ability to incorporate scientific estimates of contributory events; transparency of the inputs and outputs; acceptability to the academic community (e.g., with respect to intellectual soundness, familiarity, verisimilitude); credibility and utility of the outputs of the method to the policy community; difficulty of communicating the method's processes and outputs to nonexperts; and accuracy in other contexts. The article concludes by recommending that researchers assess the risks of human extinction by combining these methods.

Cover -- Copyright -- Content -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Foreword -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Measurement Units and Symbols -- Abbreviations -- Other Conventions -- 1. Introduction -- 1.1 Background -- 1.2 Why use performance indicators -- 1.3 Usage of performance indicators -- 1.4 Performance indicators as a component of benchmarking -- 1.5 International Standardisation of water supply and wastewater services -- 2. Development of a manual for wastewater service PIs from the water supply manual -- 2.1 The IWA manual of PIs for water supply -- 2.2 Lessons from the water supply PI pilot testing -- 3. About this manual -- 3.1 Scope -- 3.2 Structure of the document -- 4. The wastewater PI system -- 4.1 Outline -- 4.2 The PI and CI concepts -- 4.3 The wastewater undertaking context -- 4.4 Wastewater system description -- 4.5 Organisational functions and definitions -- 4.6 Financial aspects -- 4.7 Structure of the PI system -- 5. Implementation strategy of a PI system -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Definition of the strategic performance assessment policy -- 5.3 Selection of PIs to be assessed -- 5.4 Implementation of important PIs -- 5.5 PI assessment, reporting and result interpretation -- 5.6 Definition and implementation of improvement measures -- 6. Data reporting -- 6.1 Confidence grading scheme -- 6.2 Confidence grades -- 6.3 Confidence grades examples -- 6.4 Periods for data assessment -- 7. Performance Indicators -- 7.1 The PI framework -- 7.2 Environmental indicators (wEn) -- 7.3 Personnel indicators (wPe) -- 7.4 Physical indicators (wPh) -- 7.5 Operational indicators (wOp) -- 7.6 Quality of service indicators (wQS) -- 7.7 Economic and financial indicators (wFi) -- 8. Context information -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Undertaking profile -- 8.3 System profile -- 8.4 Region profile -- 9. References -- 10. About the authors.

This training book is designed to help professionals enhance their knowledge of community quality-of-life indicators, and to develop viable community projects. Chapter 1 describes the theoretical concepts that guide the formulation of community indicator projects. Chapter 2 creates a sample community indicator project as a template of the entire process. Chapter 3 describes the planning process: how to identify sponsors, secure funding, develop an organizational structure, select a quality-of-life model, select indicators, and so on. Chapter 4 focuses on data collection. Finally, Chapter 5 describes efforts related to dissemination and promotion of community indicators projects. Written by a stalwart in the field of quality-of-life research, this book provides the tools of sound community project planning for quality-of-life researchers, social workers, social marketers, community research organizations, and policy-makers

European Monetary Union will come into existence in 1999. This raises questions related to the monetary policy targets that will be adopted by the European Central Bank (ECB). For both likely candidates, targeting a money aggregate or an inflation target, the existence of a stable money demand function at a European level is important. In this paper estimates of such a European money demand for narrow and broad money for the actual 11 EMU countries based on quarterly aggregate data from 1964 to 1994 are presented. It is argued that statistically satisfactory and economically interpretable functions can be found. Moreover, the estimated models appear to be stable over a period of 20 quarters. This raises the hopes that the ECB will face a stable money demand and be able—at least for a certain time—to use past aggregate data for policy purposes.