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The increasing use of quantitative methods in policy analysis raises a number of problems connected with 'squishy' or ill-defined problems, which are frequently encountered in governmental policy formation. Such problems can be defined by the absence of an unequivocal basis for choosing a mathematical model. A 3-level conceptual model of such problems is formulated: the actual problem, the formal problem resulting from conceptualizing the actual problem, & the mathematical model of the formal problem. The formal problem may derive from the actual problem, & risk being unanalyzable; or it may derive from the analytical techniques available, & risk being irrelevant. 2 ways of using models are distinguished: (1) as surrogates for substantive problems, such as Newtonian mechanics, or (2) as perspectives on them, such as 2-dimensional perspective drawing. The 2nd approach may be preferable in dealing with 'squishy' problems, despite its risks. 7 Figures. Modified HA.

Der vorliegende Sammelband stellt zehn Projekte vor, die die Verwendung der elektronischen Datenverarbeitung als Hilfswissenschaft der Wissenschafts- und Sozialgeschichte vorsehen. Thematische Schwerpunkte sind "Sozialstruktur und Sozialtopographie spätmittelalterlich-frühneuzeitlicher Städte", "Struktur und Mobilität ständischer Gruppen und Eliten", "Konstanz und Wandel von Haushalts- und Familienstrukturen", "Agrarkonjunktur" und "Geldgeschichte". (WZ). Inhaltsverzeichnis: Methodische Überlegungen zum Einsatz der EDV im Arbeitsvorhaben "Sozialschichtung in Städten" (Erdmann Weyrauch) (9-23); Sozioökonomische Untersuchungen in süddeutschen Städten des 15, und 16. Jahrhunderts. Programmabläufe - Erfahrungen - Ergebnisse (Ingrid Batori) (24-42); Computer und Stadtgeschichte. Das Beispiel
Rouen (Jean-Pierre Bardet) (43-49); Wohnlage und Sozialstruktur in Bielefeld im
Jahr 1718 (Thomas Schuler) (50-68); Die kollektive Biographie von Mikropopulationen:
Faktorenanalyse als Untersuchungsmethode (Jean-Philippe Genet) (69-100); Die Kodierung von Nachlaßinventaren (Micheline Baulant) (101-126); Die Erhebungslisten des "Gemeinen Pfennigs" von 1496-1499. Eine demographische, wirtschafts- und
sozialgeschichtliche Untersuchung (Peter-Johannes Schuler) (127-145); EDV-Einsatz im Projekt: Strukturwandel der Familie in Österreich seit dem 17. Jahrhundert (Jean-Paul Lehners) (146-158); Untersuchung über die kurzzeitlichen Schwankungen
von Getreideerträgen (14.-18. Jahrhundert) (Hugues Neveux und Marie-Jeanne Tits-Dieuaide) (159-167); Das Projekt: Geld- und Währungsgeschichte Mitteleuropas im Spätmittelalter und in der Frühen Neuzeit (Franz Irsigler) (168-171).

IN RECENT YEARS, THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASING TREND TOWARD USE OF QUANTITATIVE METHODS IN GOVERNMENT POLICY ANALYSIS, ANALYSIS DONE IN SUPPORT OF GOVERNMENT POLICY AND DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES. THE POLICY ANALYST HAS LITTLE FLEXIBILITY AS PROBLEMS COME TO HIM OR HER THAT CANNOT BE SOLVED ON A PUREY MATHEMATICAL BASIS, PROBLEMS THAT HAVE NO WELL-DEFINED FORMULATIONS.

The issue of the article is to acquaint researchers with new methods of studying geopolitics on a strict quantitative scientifically grounded basis. The relevance of this topic is confirmed by the general growth of interest in geopolitical topics in scientific publications, but for the most part these publications are characterized by speculative argumentation and a superficial vision of geographic space. The review article intends to systematize modern theoretical knowledge about geopolitics, to present domestic methodological developments in this area. In the 1990 s, there was a search for conceptual schemes for a quantitative or qualitative analysis of geopolitical relations and acquaintance with foreign trends in geopolitics and methods of argumentation. Since the 2000 s in the latest methodology of geopolitics, 4 generalized directions are distinguished: geopolitics in geographical interpretation, which considers geopolitical processes through the prism of objective spatial data, and uses the geographic scientific base and theories of domestic economic and theoretical geography in the argument, the second is the geo-economic branch, which is based on the achievements of economic science in the mathematization of scientific knowledge, the third is critical geopolitics, which implies a quantitative and qualitative analysis of political discourse, geopolitical images and ideas about the place of a country (region) in the world, the fourth is geopolitical mathematical modeling. In general, the identified areas are not opposed to each other, but have pronounced accents and their own pool of studies, recognized as «classical», included in the foundation of scientific constructions, and there is also an interpenetration and unification of methods for quantitative analysis of geopolitical studies. The article is addressed in order to consolidate knowledge about geopolitics, to interpenetrate the developed methods in this area and stimulate interdisciplinary approaches.

Detecting Extinction in Sighting Data -- Inferring Threat from Scientific Collections: Power Tests and an Application to Western Australian Acacia Species -- Identifying the Ecological Correlates of Extinction-Prone Species: A Case Study of New Zealand Birds -- Quantitative Methods for Modeling Species Habitat: Comparative Performance and an Application to Australian Plants -- Risk Assessment of a Proposed Introduction of Pacific Salmon in the Delaware River Basin -- Likelihood of Introducing Nonindigenous Organisms with Agricultural Commodities: Probabilistic Estimation -- "Best" Abundance Estimates and Best Management: Why They Are Not the Same -- Whaling Models for Cetacean Conservation -- Assessing Land-Use Impacts on Bull Trout Using Bayesian Belief Networks -- Using Matrix Models to Focus Research and Management Efforts in Conservation -- Variability and Measurement Error in Extinction Risk Analysis: The Northern Spotted Owl on the Olympic Peninsula -- Can Individual-Based Models Yield a Better Assessment of Population Variability? -- Potential of Branching Processes as a Modeling Tool for Conservation Biology -- Role of Genetics in Conservation Biology -- Modeling Problems in Conservation Genetics Using Laboratory Animals Richard Frankham -- Theoretical Properties of Extinction by Inbreeding Depression Under Stochastic Environments -- Mathematical Methods for Identifying Representative Reserve Networks.

Cet article avance que les analystes de la politique étrangère pourraient et devraient se servir des techniques quantitatives de recherche. L'auteur examine la valeur opérationnelle de quatre d'entre elles pour des études de cette nature : (1) analyses des opinions de I'élite et de la masse, pouvant soustendre des attitudes générates susceptibles d'influencer cette politique; (2) analyses de faits quantifiables tels que les mouvements de commerce, les pertes de guerre et les budgets gouvernementaux; (3) techniques de simulation et de dynamique de groupes, propres à permettre l'élaboration d'une théorie générale de la décision; (4) analyses de contenu des messages des responsables de la politique étrangére.Il semble que, en matière de politique étrangère, l'analyse de contenu soit la plus fructueuse de ces techniques quantitatives de recherche, parce qu'elle centre I'étude sur la conjoncture de la décision, parce qu'elle permet l'examen de décisions spécifiques et parce qu'elle porte sur des documents d'information dont le volume est relativement abondant. On a utilisé cette technique avec profit dans l'étude des crises internationales; on pourrait se servir de méthodes similaires dans nombre de situations diverses impliquant la politique étrangère. A cet effet, l'analyste doit systématiser le choix des porte-paroles dont il scrute les messages et bâtir une grille complexe d'analyse, lui permettant de coder les thèmes de leur politique.L'article signale trois difficultés inhérentes à la méthode et dont l'importance varie d'après les buts de chaque étude : une information incomplète, l'authenticité de l'information et la signification qu'il faut attribuer à un thème d'après la fréquence d'utilisation par son auteur.