Search results

In this article we present a simple forecasting model that has been successful at predicting past presidential elections. The two variables included in the model are cumulative per capita income growth and presidential approval. These "fundamental" variables predict the vote especially well when measured shortly in advance of the election, when the outcome is already becoming clear in the polls. Their predictive power drops quite quickly as one steps back from the election, however; readings of income growth and approval taken early in the election year only modestly predict readings of the same variables just prior to the election. Thus we turn to leading economic indicators that allow us to forecast presidential elections by giving advance indication of changes in the economy and approval during the election year. For 1996, our model offers a cautious prediction of a Clinton victory.

This book reveals how the medieval papacy grew from modest beginnings into an impressive institution in the Middle Ages and deals with a wide field. It charts the history of the papacy and its relations to East and West from the 4th to the 12th centuries, embraces such varied subjects as law, finance, diplomacy, liturgy, and theology. The development of medieval symbolism is also discussed as are the view of eminent political scientists of the period. This re-issues reprints the revised, 3rd edition of 1970.

Introduction and theory -- Two competing security discourses, 1945-1960 -- Hypothetical enemies, 1960-1970 -- The historic experiment : refusing to become a great military power, 1970-1980 -- The emergence of the normal nation discourse, 1980-1990 -- Discursive rise and fall, 1990-2000 -- Japan as a responsible member of the international community, 2000-2010 -- Breaking out of the postwar regime, 2010-2019.

Introduction and theory -- Two competing security discourses, 1945-1960 -- Hypothetical enemies, 1960-1970 -- The historic experiment : refusing to become a great military power, 1970-1980 -- The emergence of the normal nation discourse, 1980-1990 -- Discursive rise and fall, 1990-2000 -- Japan as a responsible member of the international community, 2000-2010 -- Breaking out of the postwar regime, 2010-2019.

[4], 188 p. ; Reproduction of original in the University of Illinois (Urbana-Champaign Campus). Library. ; Attributed to Edward Stillingfleet. cf. NUC pre-1956. ; Table of contents: p. [3]

[4], 119 p. ; Attributed to Denzil Hollis Holles. Cf. BLC. ; Page 119 is torn in filmed copy. Pages 100-end photographed from Cambridge University Library copy and inserted at end. ; Reproduction of original in Union Theological Seminary Library, New York.

Master in the Electric Power Industry ; The energy industry is undergoing through major changes and challenges. The European Union has set as one of its main goals to achieve a complete decarbonization of the economy by. the year 2050. Nevertheless, this de-carbonization must be done gradually in different stages. These stages are what is known as horizons. The 2020 horizon is a set of binding legislation that basically tries to ensure that the European Union will meet its needs for the year 2020. The package sets three key targets: • 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (from the 1990 level) • 20% of the EU energy must come from renewable sources by 2020. • 20% of improvement in energy efficiency. The target of the European Union is that the total amount of energy consumed over a year must come from renewable sources. Currently in Spain the total amount coming from renewable sources in a year is around 15%. This amount considers different industries, like the transports, energy, residential, etc. Being other industries more static in the energy transition most of the efforts are going to be done in the electric industry. This means, that the total amount of energy coming from renewable sources must increase in the next years to compensate the immobility of other industries. Besides this, in Spain there is not a significant number of potential idoneal locations for further hydro development. This means that no major investment is expected in dams or run of the river technologies. Besides this, the topography of the Spanish coast makes offshore wind farms not very appealing because of the high investments that it would be needed to develop large offshore facilities. This is due to the impossibility of founding the windmills directly on the ground of the sea. Moreover, thermosolar technologies are still expensive in their OPEX and CAPEX, and with the current evolution of solar PV this technology is not expected to grow. For the reasons mentioned above, onshore wind and photovoltaic solar, are the two most probable technologies to meet the obligations with the European Union and its targets for the year 2020. Red Eléctrica de España, the Spanish Transmission System Operator must develop the analysis of the integration of this new amount of energy coming from renewable sources. This needs to be done to assess whether the current grid will be able to handle this new amount of energy planned to enter the system. This integration must be done in the most secure, reliable and cheapest manner. There are several studies to assess the capacity of the planned grid H2015-H2020 to integrate this renewable energy. However, in this master's thesis a new methodology will be proposed to study two different systems. These systems are those from the Canary Islands and the Peninsula. Summarizing, the purpose of this Master's Thesis in to propose a new methodology to study the integration of the new amount of energy coming from renewable sources in two of the Spanish systems, the systems of the Peninsula and the Canary Islands.

[2], 266 [i.e. 166], [4] p. ; Attributed to Atwood by Wing and NUC pre-1956 imprints. ; Errata: p. [1] at end. ; Advertisements: p. [3]-[4] at end. ; Errors in paging: p. 69-184 omitted, p. 233-248 repeated, both in numbering only. ; Reproduction of original in the Huntington Library. ; Includes bibliographical references.

[2], 28 p. ; Reproduction of original in Thomason Collection, British Library.

[2], 25 p. ; Reproduction of original in Thomason Collection, British Library.