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The Armed Conflict Survey 2022 provides an exhaustive review of the political, military and humanitarian dimensions of 33 active armed conflicts globally in the period from 1 March 2021 to 30 April 2022. The review is complemented by a strategic analysis of national, regional and global drivers and conflict outlooks, providing unique insights into the geopolitical and geo-economic threads linking conflicts across the world, as well as into emerging flashpoints and political risks. This edition includes a special feature on climate security given the increasingly urgent need to understand the complex interlinkages between climate change, climate vulnerability and conflict amid accelerating global warming. Reflecting the growing importance of geopolitical factors in the current global conflict landscape, The Armed Conflict Survey 2022 features the IISS Armed Conflict Global Relevance Indicator, which compares the global relevance of armed conflicts in terms of their geopolitical impact, as well as their human impact and intensity. This edition also includes maps, infographics and key statistics, as well as the accompanying Chart of Armed Conflict.

The Armed Conflict Survey 2023 provides an exhaustive review of the political, military and humanitarian dimensions of active armed conflicts globally in the period from 1 May 2022-30 June 2023. The review is complemented by a strategic analysis of regional and global drivers and conflict outlooks, providing unique insights into the geopolitical and geo-economic threads linking conflicts regionally and globally, as well as into emerging flashpoints and political risks to monitor. This edition's regional-focused approach also includes Regional Spotlight chapters on selected key conflict trends of regional and global importance. Reflecting the growing significance of geopolitical factors in shaping current conflict trends across the world, The Armed Conflict Survey 2023 features the third edition of the IISS Armed Conflict Global Relevance Indicator, which compares the global relevance of armed con icts in terms of their geopolitical impact, as well as their human impact and intensity. This edition also includes maps, infographics, key statistics and the accompanying Chart of Armed Conflict.

A total of 226 armed conflicts have been recorded for the years 1946-2002. Of these, 116 were active in the period 1989-2002, including 31 in 2002. There were five wars in 2002. Both numbers were the lowest for this period. Seven interstate-armed conflicts were recorded 1989-2002, of which one was still active in 2002. In 2002, a larger proportion of complex major armed conflicts were resolved, compared with new and minor armed conflicts. Although the data on armed conflict presented here suggest that there is a decline in the use of armed force, there is an increased feeling of fear and insecurity in many parts of the world because of terrorism incidents.

In 2008, the number of active armed conflicts was 36, up by one from 2007. Over the past few years, the number of active conflicts has not seen any drastic changes from one year to the next. However, the number of armed conflicts has increased by nearly one-quarter since 2003, which was the year with the lowest number of active armed conflicts since the 1970s. While the number of conflicts continued to increase, the number of wars (i.e. conflicts with over 1,000 battle-related deaths) remained at a very low level, with only five recorded for 2008. Four conflicts listed in 2007 were no longer active in 2008, but during the year, two conflicts were restarted by previously recorded actors (in Burundi and in Georgia). Furthermore, three new conflicts erupted, one of which was fought between states (Djibouti—Eritrea). Thus, the record-long four-year interlude 2004—07 with no interstate conflict was broken.

A total of 108 armed conflicts has been recorded for the years 1989-98. Of these, 36 were active in 1998. This marks an increase from 1997, after an overall decline in the number of conflicts per year since 1992. The number of wars nearly doubled in 1998, after a marked decrease that had also started in 1992. Most wars took place in Africa. Seven interstate armed conflicts were recorded for the whole period, of which two were active in 1998.

In 2011, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) recorded 37 armed conflicts with a minimum of 25 battle-related deaths. This significant increase from the 31 conflicts recorded in 2010 was primarily driven by an increase in conflicts on the African continent, and is only in part due to events tied to the Arab Spring which mostly led to other forms of violence than conventional armed conflict. The number of active conflicts still remains at a relatively low level compared to the peak years in the early 1990s, when more than 50 conflicts were active. The number of wars – conflicts leading to 1,000 or more battle-related deaths – increased to six; however, it is a considerably lower number than during the peak years of the early 1990s. For the second consecutive year, Afghanistan claimed the highest number of fatalities. Five armed conflicts listed for 2010 were not active in 2011, but during the year three new conflicts erupted – Libya, South Sudan and Sudan (Abyei) – and six conflicts already registered were restarted. Only one peace agreement was concluded during the year. Thus, the trend with low numbers of peace accords which started in 2009 continues.

Armed conflicts always have dire effects on the health of the civilian population. Apart from the harm — wounds, burns, asphyxia and radiation — caused directly by weapons of war, the people fall prey to disease because of the disruption of their normal living conditions.In most cases, it is the latter rather than the former which takes the greatest toll.Some basic health protection principles are therefore common to all development and disaster situations.

Cover; Title; Copyright; Contents; Editor's Introduction; Notes on Methodology; Global Trends; Humanitarian Aid as a Weapon of War; Conflict Expansion to Cities; Armed Conflict and Forced Displacement; The Security Implications of Climate Change; Conflict Reports; 1 Americas; Regional Introduction; Brazil (Rio de Janeiro); Colombia; El Salvador; Honduras; Mexico (Cartels); 2 Asia-Pacific; Regional Introduction; Myanmar (EAOs); Philippines (ASG); Philippines (Moro); Philippines (NPA); Southern Thailand; 3 Europe and Eurasia; Regional Introduction; Armenia-Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh); Ukraine

A growing wave of scholarship suggests that ideology has demonstrable effects on various forms of armed conflict. But ideology remains a relative theoretical newcomer in conflict research, and scholars lack developed microfoundations for analyzing ideologies and their effects. Typically, existing research has primarily presented ideology as either an instrumental tool for conflict actors or a source of sincere political and normative commitments. But neither approach captures the diverse ways in which contemporary social science theorizes the causal connection between ideas and action, and both struggle to reconcile the apparently strong effects of ideology on conflict at the collective level with the relative rarity of 'true believers' at the individual level. This article addresses such problems by providing key microfoundations for conceptualizing ideologies, analyzing ideological change, and explaining ideologies' influence over conflict behavior. I emphasize that ideology overlaps with other drivers of conflict such as strategic interests and group identities, show how ideologies can affect conflict behavior through four distinct mechanisms – commitment, adoption, conformity and instrumentalization – and clarify the role of both conflict pressures and preexisting ideological conditions in ideological change. These microfoundational claims integrate existing empirical findings and offer a foundation for building deeper explanations and middle-range theories of ideology's role in armed conflict.

In 2010, UCDP recorded 30 active armed conflicts (i.e. with a minimum of 25 battle-related deaths). This is a substantial reduction in relation to the 36 conflicts registered for 2009. A drop of this magnitude has only been reported four times previously in the post-1946 period. However, only in two of these instances was this part of a general downward trend. Thus no major inferences should be drawn, except perhaps that the reduction in conflicts in Africa seems to be part of a trend. At 30 in 2010, the number of active conflicts is at its lowest level since 2003. Furthermore, the number of wars (1,000 or more battle-related deaths) declined from six in 2009 to four in 2010. The most intense war in terms of fatalities was in Afghanistan. Eight of the armed conflicts listed for 2009 were not active in 2010, but during the year two new conflicts erupted – Mauritania and Tajikistan – both involving rebel groups that had previously fought in neighbouring countries. Only two peace agreements were concluded during the year. While this is one more than 2009, it is decidedly below the annual average for the post-Cold War period.

In 2014, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) recorded 40 armed conflicts with a minimum of 25 battle-related deaths, up by six from 2013. This is the highest number of conflicts reported since 1999, and 11 of these conflicts were defined as wars, that is, conflicts generating 1,000 or more battle-related deaths in one calendar year. Further, an escalation of several conflicts, coupled with the extreme violence in Syria, resulted in the highest number of battle-related deaths in the post-1989 period. Yet, compared to the large-scale interstate wars of the 20th century, the number of fatalities caused by armed conflicts in 2014 was relatively low. Additionally, seven conflicts identified in 2013 were no longer active in 2014. However, four new conflicts erupted in 2014, all of them in Ukraine, and three previously registered conflicts were restarted by new actors. Furthermore, six conflicts reoccurred with previously registered actors. A positive development, however, is the increase to ten of the number of peace agreements concluded and signed in 2014, which represents a further four compared with 2013. And although this increase is part of a positive trend since 2011, it is worth noting that several peace processes remained fragile by the end of the year.

In 2012, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) recorded 32 armed conflicts with a minimum of 25 battle-related deaths. This is a significant decrease from the 37 recorded in 2011. Overall, the 2000s has been the least conflict-ridden decade since the 1970s. A worrying finding, however, is that the number of internationalized intrastate conflicts continued to be at a high level for the fourth consecutive year. At six, the number of wars – conflicts leading to 1,000 or more battle-related deaths – remained the same as in 2011. In total, UCDP estimates that the conflicts that were active in 2012 caused between 37,175 (low estimate) and 60,260 (high estimate) battle-related deaths, with a best estimate of 37,941. The conflict that caused the highest number of fatalities in 2012 is the Syrian conflict, which led to between 14,830 (low) and 30,805 (high) battle-related deaths, with the best estimate being 15,055. Eleven armed conflicts listed in 2011 were not active in 2012; however, three new conflicts erupted during the year – India (Garoland), Mali and South Sudan vs. Sudan (common border) – and three previously registered conflicts were resumed by new actors. Lastly, 2012 saw an increase in the number of signed peace agreements which had been at a very low level over the past three years; four accords were concluded during the year, compared with one in 2011.