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Med baggrund i de seneste års krigs- og terrorhandlinger – Afghanistan, Irak, den 11. september – reflekterer forfatteren over forholdet mellem krig, tilskuer, medier og forestillinger om virkeligheden. Forholdet mellem medier og virkelighed tenderer ifølge forfatteren mod at smelte sammen i en gennemmedieret kultur, hvor fremstillingsformer fra for eksempel film kan anvendes til at formidle faktiske begivenheder. Forfatterens blik på mediekulturen tager afsæt i flere aktuelle udgivelser fra postmodernis- mens centrale filosoffer, blandt andet Jean Baudrillard og Paul Virilio. Denne artikel er dermed samtidig en introduktion til deres refleksioner over terrorhandlingerne den 11. september og deres betydning i det moderne samfund.

A protracted conventional knowledge within mainstream International Relations (IR) has been that African agents (states, organizations, and diplomats) are consumers of international norms and practices designed in the affluent countries of the Global North. Papers in this special issue present a challenge to this view; they discuss the active role and the influence of African actors in international politics and renew a call for the development of IR theories, concepts, and methods that reflect Global Southern and African experiences, ideas, institutions, actors and processes.

There is little politicians and administrations fear more than being taken off guard and ill-prepared by a major incident. However inadequate the planning and instruments, decisions must be made and action taken. As such, unexpected events expose decision-makers to the risks of portentous decisions arrived at under conditions of great uncertainty, and usually also in great haste. Space for reflection, analysis and consultation is scarce. The problem is heightened in the sphere of foreign and security policy, with its multitude of actors, interests and influences: here, the unexpected is to be expected (see SWP Foresight Studies from 2011 and 2013). Revolutionary upheavals and power struggles frequently obliterate the bounds of orderly political process. Recent examples include developments in the Middle East and North Africa since 2011 and Russia's response to the toppling of the government in Ukraine in early 2014. Retrospective analyses of unexpected events often reveal that there were in fact warning signs. Indeed, these are generally even recognised in good time – but not interpreted as they would have in light of their later relevance. Therefore, the authors of the third SWP Foresight Study discuss possible future scenarios that already deserve more political attention today. The common starting point for all contributions is that the outlined situation would present German (and EU) foreign and security policy with grave challenges, regardless of whether the character of the events is more of a crisis or an opportunity. (author's abstract)

ZeFKo Zeitschrift für Friedens- und Konfliktforschung , Seite 44 - 71

Beeinflussen Massenmedien den Gang der internationalen Politik? Alexander Brand gibt hierauf eine differenzierte Antwort, die Medien weder zu Sündenböcken für fehlgeschlagene politische Projekte macht noch deren eigenständige Wirkmächtigkeit abstreitet. Auch widerspricht er einer technologiefixierten Lesart, wie sie bei der Rede vom »CNN-Effekt« oder der »Twitter-Revolution« dominiert. Auf der Basis eines modifizierten konstruktivistischen Ansatzes für die Internationalen Beziehungen erläutert die Studie, wo genau sich Medieneffekte in internationalen politischen Dynamiken niederschlagen - und

How might we have to imagine the Middle East if there were a political thaw between Iran and Saudi Arabia? Could Turkey leave NATO in the near future? What would happen if security-related EU databases were successfully hacked; if South Korea were to arm itself with nuclear weapons; or if an American woman were to head the United Nations? Of course, these situations, as explored in the SWP's latest Foresight research paper, are only hypothetical. Why address them? Because unexpected events have abounded in international politics in recent years. Brexit; the election of Donald Trump as US President; and Russia's annexation of Crimea are only the most striking examples. Science and politics should therefore ready themselves for likely future surprises. The Foresight research paper aims to assist with this. We cannot and do not want to predict the future. However, with the help of systematic foresight we can better prepare for unplanned situations. This means improving our view of conceivable - albeit unlikely - developments that would seriously impact on German and European foreign and security policy. It also includes reviewing previous expectations – as this research paper likewise tackles. What actually happened to the battery revolution that was supposed to secure our power supply? Did the negotiation process on the UK's withdrawal from the EU unfold as experts had anticipated? Such reviews are instructive, and can be used to gain insights for the future. (author's abstract)

"Wenn es zutrifft, dass kulturelle Praxen Erfahrung und Erwartungen prägen, dann müssen sie eindeutig bestimmt und für die empirische Forschung als aussagekräftig gewertet werden. Mit Bezug auf die Theorie der Internationalen Beziehungen (IB-Theorie), Internationales Öffentliches Recht und normative Demokratietheorie entwickelt dieser Artikel einen Ansatz, um die umstrittenen Bedeutungen von Normen in der internationalen Politik unter der Bedingung von Konstitutionalisierung jenseits des Staates zu erforschen. Ziel ist es, ein Forschungsdesign zur Untersuchung der unsichtbaren Konstitution von Politik, das heißt, zur Erforschung von individuell gehaltenen assoziativen Konnotationen, die zur umstrittenen Interpretation normativer Bedeutung führen, zu entwickeln. Diese Überlegungen werden in dem Papier in zwei Teilen vorgestellt. Teil I entwickelt Forschungsannahmen und Hypothesen aufgrund der relevanten Literatur im ersten Abschnitt. Er zeigt unterschiedliche Typen von Normen und Bedingungen von Normumstrittenheit auf (Abschnitt 1), definiert Forschungsannahmen und Hypothesen (Abschnitt 2), argumentiert für die Rückbesinnung auf die Dimension der Kultur im Konstitutionalismus (Abschnitt 3) und schließt mit der Leitfrage nach Konvergenz, Divergenz oder Diffusion normativer Bedeutungen (Abschnitt 4). Teil II richtet den Blick auf die Operationalisierung des Forschungsdesigns. Er stellt die Forschungslogik und Art der Untersuchung (Abschnitt 5), die Methode der Interviewauswertung (Abschnitt 6) und die Forschungsindikatoren nach sozialer Gruppe, Fundamentalnormen und politischen Arenen (Abschnitt 7) vor. Abschnitt 8 fasst das Forschungsdesign und -vorgehen zusammen." (Autorenreferat)

With which autocratic states should German cultivate foreign relations? How should such relations be approached? How do other democratic regimes deal with authoritarian regimes? These are the key questions addressed in the current Volume 30 of the Annals of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). Over 50 experts from the realms of academia, business, and politics engage in rigorous analysis to illuminate policy options.

"The article inquires into the conditions of effective leadership of states in international politics, and develops a framework for the study of so-called (new) regional powers such as Brazil, China, India, and South Africa in processes of regional institution-building. Various theoretical strands will be discussed as to the requirements of effective leadership in international affairs. Most importantly, the relationship between power, leadership and hegemony will be outlined. It is argued that the connection between leadership and hegemony is one of co-constitution. Leadership is necessarily based on hegemony, while hegemony can only be sustained through leadership. Furthermore, it will be shown that both leadership and hegemony are essentially political in character, whereas power has no such insinuation but has to be translated into leadership and hegemony through discursive means. Finally, the analysis asks for the preconditions of leadership in East Asia, using China's and Japan's roles in East Asian regionalism as an illustration." (author's abstract)