Abstract: Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective – 2019Una Hakvåg (Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI)) reviews Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective – 2019, an analysis of Russia's Armed Forces and their fighting power, edited by Fredrik Westerlund & Susanne Oxenstierna.
Afstaða Íslendinga til öryggismála hefur lítið verið rannsökuð frá því í lok kalda stríðsins. Í þessari grein eru kynntar niðurstöður könnunar um afstöðu til og hugmyndir um utanríkis- og öryggismál, en Félagsvísindastofnun HÍ vann könnunina í nóvember og desember 2016. Niðurstöður könnunarinnar eru settar í samhengi við þróun í öryggisfræðum, þá sérstaklega öryggisgeira (e. security sectors) verufræðilegt öryggi (e. ontological security) og öryggisvæðingu (e. securitization). Helstu niðurstöður eru að almenningur á Íslandi telur öryggi sínu helst stafa ógn af efnahagslegum og fjárhagslegum óstöðugleika og náttúruhamförum, en telur litlar líkur á því að hernaðarátök eða hryðjuverkaárásir snerti landið beint. Þessar niðurstöður eru í takmörkuðu samræmi við helstu áherslur stjórnvalda í öryggismálum og því mikilvægt að stjórnvöld átti sig á því hvernig hægt er að tryggja það að almenningur sé meðvitaður um þær forsendur sem áhættumat og öryggisstefna grundvallast á. ; Icelanders' views on security and foreign affairs since the end of the Cold War are an understudied issue. This article presents the findings of a large scale survey on the position and ideas about foreign affairs and security. The survey was conducted by the Social Science Research Institute of the University of Iceland in November and December 2016. The results of the survey are placed in the context of developments in security studies, with an emphasis on security sectors, ontological security, and securitization. The main findings are that the Icelandic public believes that its security is most threatened by economic and financial instability, as well as natural hazards, but thinks there is a very limited chance of military conflict or terrorist attacks directly affecting the country. These findings are incongruent with the main emphases of Icelandic authorities, as they appear in security policy and political discourse. It is therefore important that the authorities understand how to engage with the public about the criteria upon which risk assessments and security policies are based. ; Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Armenia and Europe: Foreign Aid and Environmental Politics in the Post-Soviet Caucasus Lene Wetteland (Norwegian Helsinki Committee) reviews Armenia and Europe: Foreign Aid and Environmental Politics in the Post-Soviet Caucasus by Dr. Pål Wilter Skedsmo. The book is a revised version of his 2017 PhD thesis in Social Anthropology. Skedsmo uses his personal experience from a project on environmental rights in Armenia in the early 2010s and Armenian civil society's application of the Aarhus Convention as case studies to discuss the issue of Europeanization of Armenia in this context.
Abstract: Russia's operationalization of a sphere of interest in the South CaucasusA central foreign policy objective of Russia is to maintain an exclusive sphere of interest in its post-Soviet neighbourhood. This article analyses how Russia employs a combination of political and military instruments in operationalizing its perceived sphere of interest in the still conflict-ridden South Caucasus. Russia is the only external power in the region to have military bases there, and is the only one seemingly ready to undertake military action. At present, Russia appears satisfied with the status quo in the South Caucasus. The unresolved conflicts in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh are therefore unlikely to be resolved in the near future. Unresolved conflicts suit Russia's objectives. Russian military bases in Georgia and Armenia provide Moscow with both a key lever against Tbilisi and Yerevan and a structural advantage for potential Russian military operations in the region. Russia's military posture in the Caucasus is relevant to the potential for large-scale conflict in the Southern war theatre, including the wider Middle East, and not just local conflicts in the Caucasus.
In this thesis, we compare two organizational reforms within one policy area. How the "Modernization reform for development management" from 2002/03 and the "Reform for the organization of grant management" from 2018/19, affected the relationship between the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Norad - the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation. Central is the political choice of the overall organizational model in the reforms, with two main alternatives: an integrated model in which the directorate becomes part of the ministry, and a delegated model that assigns the directorate additional tasks (enhanced vertical autonomy). In the thesis, we examine what led to the reform in 2003, and whether the newer reform can be regarded as a continuation of the 2003 reform. We have chosen to base our analysis on the theoretical framework for reforms by Pollitt and Bouckaert. The thesis is a comparative case study, and the analysis is based on three types of data sources: semi-structured interviews, document analysis, and media coverage. In the thesis, we find that several driving forces contributed to the initiation of reform in 2002/03, but that the Minister of Development's political ambitions must be regarded as a main reason to reform. The result of the reform was a mixed model, which can best be explained by the interaction - or tug-of-war - between two ministers, between foreign policy and development policy and the meeting between political desires and what was administratively feasible. Unresolved issues in the 2003 reform led to constant attempts to find an administrative balance in the years between the two reforms. In 2019, driving forces within the political system, especially party politics, became decisive for the choice of model, after the political party KrF (the Christian Democrats) entered the government. By studying the two reforms over time, we show in the thesis that ongoing discussions about the interface between politics and administration, as well as tensions between foreign policy and development policy interests, were central to the reform processes. This may help explain why reforms are repeated. The thesis is a contribution to understanding reforms in a context that also includes the time perspective. ; publishedVersion
Abstract: Trauma and Collective Memories in Georgia's Foreign PolicyGeorgia's foreign policy since the mid-1990s would appear to be a regional anomaly. While Georgia's neighbors have either accommodated to Russia's geopolitical interests or sought to navigate between Russia and the West, Georgian governments have pursued a comparatively stable pro-Western foreign policy orientation. Thus, structural arguments like geographic proximity, or Russia's assertive foreign policy, cannot account for the variation in foreign-policy orientation among post-Soviet states. Moreover, although alternative explanations, like Georgia's European identity and commitment to democracy, or explanations related to qualities of the Mikheil Saakashvili government, are not without merits, they cannot fully account for the continuity in Georgia's pro-Western foreign policy over time. This article argues that the collective memory of the traumatic years 1989–1994 is a key factor for understanding Georgia's foreign policy continuity. The collective memory and trauma related to loss of territory, together with a weak state and Russia's negative involvement, have shaped the strategic thinking of Georgia's foreign policy elites. This trauma explains Georgia's shift to a pro-Western foreign policy in the mid-1990s and the continuity of this policy up until today. This argument is supported by the author's interviews with key Georgian decision-makers responsible for foreign policy decisions.
Abstract: Russia's Defence Policy and Military Presence in the Caucasus and Central AsiaThese two reports, Security in the Caucasus. Russian policy and military posture and Security in the Caucasus. Russian policy and military posture, analyse and discuss Russia's security policy and military posture after 2014 in two regions often described as part of Russia's 'near abroad', the Caucasus and Central Asia. The reports find that although both regions are considered as within Russia's 'sphere of influence', the Russian military structure and policy varies significantly. While geared towards crisis management of potential conflicts in Central Asia, the frozen conflicts in the South Caucasus have made Russia set up for regional war.
- ; In critically important parts of the cold war era the Democratic Party was the steward of American foreign policy. But since September 11. 2001, the party has, however, mostly been a bystander to the major transformation of U.S. foreign policy carried out by the Bush administration. Will the party continue to play such a passive and reactive role or will it be able to formulate a coherent and realistic alternative the Bush foreign policy? Both the U.S. international behavior and world politics will be greatly affected by the outcome of the ongoing internal debate in the party. This paper takes a closer look at this debate and the various fractions that now compete for being the foreign policy face of the party. It is still too early to tell the outcome of this jockeying for power, and consequently the Bush administration will most likely continue as the dominant force behind American foreign policy.
Abstract: The Past Is a Foreign Country. Mediated Memories of Yugoslavia in Post-Yugoslav Documentary FilmSvein Mønnesland (University of Oslo) reviews The Past Is a Foreign Country. Mediated Memories of Yugoslavia in Post-Yugoslav Documentary Film, by Sanjin Pejkovic.
Russia's Rebels: Protest and Reaction in Putin's Russia (2011–2020), by Geir Flikke, is reviewed by Anni Roth Hjermann, advisor at the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Affairs.
Russia as a Military Power, edited by Niels Bo Poulsen and Jørgen Staun (Djøf Forlag 2021) is reviewed by Tor Bukkvoll, of the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI).
