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The Kyoto Protocol is likely to give only minor environmental benefits. One important reason is that the industrial economies in transition to market economies have assigned amounts (national emission quotas) that do not reflect that these countries have experienced large emission reductions after the collapse of the communist regimes. These countries consequently have assigned amounts that probably will be considerably larger than their business-as-usual emissions in the commitment period. Hence, these countries will probably be able to sell emission permits on a large scale without carrying out abatement domestically. There are signs that Russia will ratify the Kyoto Protocol. Nevertheless, after the US withdrawal the Protocol is likely to give rise only to small emission reductions. The article sheds light on the consequences of implementation, & discusses what should be the next step forward in the international climate negotiations. The article concludes that an increased degree of realism is necessary with respect to the limitations & potentials of the Kyoto Protocol. Increased attention should be given to other proposed concepts for climate agreements. 3 Tables, 1 Figure, 37 References. Adapted from the source document.

The chief objective of the Iraq War has been branded as US control of the Middle East. Rising oil imports, stronger pro-Israeli interests & the demise of a Soviet rival power have resulted in a US Middle East policy more based on force than on diplomacy. Both for the US & Israel important interests are at stake. The reconstruction of Iraq's large oil industry is likely to influence the world oil market for decades. For Israel an alliance of Iraq & Syria might be critical. Israel does not have the resources to control its strategic environment, & any Israeli use of force requires US support. Thus the US occupation of Iraq & any plans to invade Iran dampen pressure on Israel to find a negotiated settlement with the Palestinians, Lebanon & Syria, while a US withdrawal from Iraq would increase pressure. While it might be in the US interest to weaken the Arab states & their control over oil, a fragmentation could be in Israel's interest. The draft Iraqi oil law suffers from a lack of clarity that might compromise the government's bargaining position. Iraq can rebuild its oil industry through service contracts that eventually might be paid in oil. Many large, proven fields with a low geological risk preclude any need to explore for new prospects or grant equity shares in fields already indicated, or to enter into long-term oil contracts as long as the war lasts. The US occupant has, however, a pressing need to kick-start the Iraqi oil industry. Finally, the article discusses prospects for US policy on the Middle East in the years to come. References. Adapted from the source document.