Following EU regulations, Sweden needs to reduce 2005 emissions of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, non-methane volatile organic compounds, ammonia and fine particulate matter with 22, 66, 36, 17, and 19% by 2030, and largest efforts are needed to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions. However, since the targets are ambitious and the time frame is short, there is a risk that some of the already proposed efforts will be inadequate. It is therefore useful to estimate the emission reduction potential from an implementation of behavioral change measures. The analysis was done in several steps. From an overview of the literature 10 measures were selected for analysis. After this, the national potential of the measures was estimated through re-calculations of the emission scenarios supporting the official Swedish emission projections. The current data quality only allows for the results to be considered best available estimates. Given this caveat the analysis shows that the measures could contribute with 12-24% of the required additional nitrogen oxide emission reductions in 2030. If all measures would be implemented emissions of carbon dioxide (biogenic and fossil) could be reduced by 2-4 Mtonne. The report also presents several knowledge gaps that needs to be considered prior to any governmental action. ; The report presents a quantification of how 2030 emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases could be affected by 10 easily available changes in everyday behavior. These changes relate to dietary choice, personal mobility and indoor climate control. The analysis shows that the changes together could reduce expected Swedish 2030 emissions of NOx with 1.7 – 3 ktonne, PM2.5 with 1 – 2.6 ktonne, and CO2 with 2-4 Mtonne. The measures could thereby contribute significantly to Swedish air pollution and climate targets.
AbstractIn addition to effects from greenhouse gases, climate change is affected by short-lived climate forcers (SLCF). These are often co-emitted with carbon dioxide, and some are regulated air pollutants. In the governance of these pollutants, established estimates of damage costs of pollution inform benefit–cost analyses. However, climate change impact of SLCFs is omitted from these estimates. The purpose of this study is to calculate economic damage costs of air pollutants' effect on climate change and compare these with established damage costs. Focus is on European emissions governed in the EU National Emission Reduction Commitments Directive during 2020–2050. We use well-known SLCF emission metrics and multiply with literature values on social costs of methane to calculate climate damage costs of SLCFs. The results indicate that average absolute climate damage costs are highest for black carbon ($59,500/ton in 2050) and lowest for nonmethane volatile organic compounds ($661/ton). Our indicative values are likely underestimations. Indicative climate damage costs are usually lower than established damage costs, with notable exceptions. We propose that more detailed studies are necessary, and that inclusion of climate damage costs into economic valuation of SLCFs is important for future air pollution and climate benefit–cost analyses.
The use of ethanol and biodiesel in the transport sector is increasing in line with the latest legislation, stimulating use of biofuels in efforts to reduce CO2 emissions. At the same time, the aspect of effects from use of biofuel on air quality is a rather contradictory issue, which is currently being studied in many countries. The GAINS model, developed by the International Institute of Applied System Analysis (IIASA) and widely used to provide support to air quality policies, does not provide a possibility to consider emission factors for biofuels used in the transport sector (with exception for CO2).The objective of this study is to link the biofuel share in the transport sector to available emission factors for biofuels, to provide a new emission calculation equation based on this linkage (emissions as a function of biofuel use), to introduce the equation into the GAINS Sweden script, and to compare the results obtained for several scenarios for the Swedish transport sector with different assumed levels of biofuel use. An equation, taking into consideration lower emission factors for NOx and PM from ethanol-fuelled passenger cars, has been derived and successfully compiled into the GAINS Sweden script. A generic equation applicable to other pollutants has also been derived. Calculation results indicate that introducing emission factors for biofuels does not have a significant effect on air pollutant emissions from the transport sector in Sweden. Full replacement of gasoline with ethanol for passenger cars in 2020 reduces emissions of NOx by 1.48 kt and PM by 0.06 kt, according to the baseline scenario (2009). An important prerequisite for obtaining reliable emission results in the GIAINS model is properly quantified emission factors. Further research on emission factors for biofuels is needed since currently used factors are not commonly accepted. The study has been performed within the SCARP research program. ; The use of ethanol and biodiesel in the transport sector is increasing in line with the latest legislation, stimulating use of biofuels in efforts to reduce CO2 emissions. At the same time, the aspect of effects from use of biofuel on air quality is a rather contradictory issue, which is currently being studied in many countries. The GAINS model, developed by the International Institute of Applied System Analysis (IIASA) and widely used to provide support to air quality policies, does not provide a possibility to consider emission factors for biofuels used in the transport sector (with exception for CO2).The objective of this study is to link the biofuel share in the transport sector to available emission factors for biofuels, to provide a new emission calculation equation based on this linkage (emissions as a function of biofuel use), to introduce the equation into the GAINS Sweden script, and to compare the results obtained for several scenarios for the Swedish transport sector with different assumed levels of biofuel use. An equation, taking into consideration lower emission factors for NOx and PM from ethanol-fuelled passenger cars, has been derived and successfully compiled into the GAINS Sweden script. A generic equation applicable to other pollutants has also been derived. Calculation results indicate that introducing emission factors for biofuels does not have a significant effect on air pollutant emissions from the transport sector in Sweden. Full replacement of gasoline with ethanol for passenger cars in 2020 reduces emissions of NOx by 1.48 kt and PM by 0.06 kt, according to the baseline scenario (2009). An important prerequisite for obtaining reliable emission results in the GIAINS model is properly quantified emission factors. Further research on emission factors for biofuels is needed since currently used factors are not commonly accepted. The study has been performed within the SCARP research program.
The report provides detailed information on emission trends and European actions on air quality during 2016-2020, in support of the second UNEP global summary report of policies and programmes to reduce air pollution. The pollutants in focus are sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, non-methane volatile organic compounds, ammonia, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Thanks to the continued strengthening of policies developed under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, EU policies and legislation, as well as national legislations, emissions of most monitored air pollutants have decreased. Since 2010, this trend has continued in Western, Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe. Emissions are however increasing in Central Asian countries. Looking at the entire European and Central Asian region covered in this report, there is one pollutant that stands out: ammonia. Ammonia emissions have in all sub-regions increased during 2010-2017, and there is no sign of decline. The EU member states and Norway, UK and Switzerland, with the largest past emission reductions, are also those with well-developed air quality monitoring and assessment infrastructure. In addition, these countries report the largest portfolio of further actions to reduce emissions in a cost-effective manner, including investments in energy efficiency improvements as well as in clean technologies. Awareness and progress in efforts to improve air quality assessment infrastructures in Eastern and South Eastern Europe as well as Central Asia are improving, and there are several examples of knowledge-sharing initiatives and capacity building efforts.
Emissions of air pollutants from shipping (NOx, SOx, and PM2.5) make a significant contribution to the total emissions in Europe and world-wide. According to the analysis by Brandt et al. (2013), shipping emissions cause about 50 thousand premature deaths per year in Europe. Significant share of the sulphur and nitrogen deposition that causes acidification and eutrophication emanates from ship emissions. NOx emissions contribute to formation of secondary particles and ozone, resulting in increased number of respiratory and cardio-vascular diseases among the population, especially in coastal states. NOx emissions from anthropogenic sources reported by the 28 member countries of the European Union to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) amounted to ∼7820 ktonnes in 2014 (CEIP, 2017) whereas emissions from international shipping in the European seas for the same year are estimated at 3186 ktonnes (EMEP, 2016). As more stringent NOx emission control is gradually enforced for stationary and mobile sources on land, the share of NOx emission reduction potential attributable to international shipping is expected to increase in the future. One instrument is a NOx emission control area (NECA) in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea; the other is a combination of NECA and a NOx levy with revenues going back to shipping companies as subsidy for NOx abatement uptake. Both instruments are assumed to be in force in 2021. In the analysis, we operate with three main scenarios: • Baseline (no additional policy instruments) • NECA • NECA+Levy&fund In the NECA scenario we assume that no extra use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is introduced and that the Tier III requirements for marine gasoil (MGO) fuelled vessels are fulfilled by installing selective catalytic reduction (SCR). In the NECA+Levy&fund scenario it is further assumed that Tier 0 vessels will not install SCR but pay levy instead, and that 75 per cent of Tier I and Tier II vessels will take up retrofit SCR, given that it is more profitable than paying the levy. Total abatement costs have been assessed from the socio-economic perspective, implying low interest rate and long investment lifetime at investment costs' annualization. Health benefits have been estimated with the GAINS and the Alpha-RiskPoll models. The method for estimating health benefits is the same as applied in cost-benefit analyses supporting the European Commission's work on the air pollution abatement strategies and the work of the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. ; The purpose of this study is to perform a cost-benefit analysis for two selected policy instruments aimed at decreasing nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions from shipping in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea. One instrument is a NOx emission control area (NECA) in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea the other is a combination of NECA and a NOx levy with revenues going back to shipping companies as subsidy for NOx abatement uptake. Both instruments are assumed to be in force in 2021.
Skogsråvara används idag till olika ändamål, som till exempel pappersprodukter av olika slag, sågade trävaror och energi – huvudsakligen i form av fasta bränslen. Det finns även en viss produktion av drivmedel, men inte i så stor skala som förväntas i framtiden. Utvecklingen av sådan tillverkning är intensiv och biobaserade drivmedel eftersträvas och premieras med bland annat styrmedel och politiska mål. Biomassa är en förnyelsebar resurs och som sådan mycket intressant för många användningsområden, som till exempel nya material och flytande och gasformiga bränslen och drivmedel. Framställningen av biodrivmedel kommer med all sannolikhet att öka under de kommande åren – i synnerhet som Sverige har ett mål om en fossiloberoende fordonsflotta till år 2030. Skogen ska, förutom att vara råvara till ovanstående typer av produkter, också tillgodose behoven av de så kallade ekosystemtjänsterna, som till exempel biodiversitet, fiske, jakt, rekreation och bärplockning som därmed också konkurrerar om denna råvara. Idag har Sverige en netto-tillväxt av skog, vilket, åtminstone teoretiskt, ger utrymme för ökat uttag av skogsbiomassa i Sverige och därmed en ökad tillverkning av produkter därav. Tillgången på skogsbiomassa är dock inte obegränsad eftersom tillväxten måste vara lika med, eller större, än uttaget. Därför måste skogsbiomassa betraktas som en begränsad resurs och dess användning bör vara sådan att den ger maximal fördel jämfört med användning av fossila resurser. Det medför att LCA och andra utvärderingar av miljömässiga konsekvenser av en produkt från skogsbiomassa bör inkludera alternativa råvaror för produkter som konkurrerar om samma råvara. Denna förstudie omfattar en beskrivning av svenskt skogsbruk och sambandet mellan olika kvaliteter av skogsbiomassa, en workshop (vid vilken konkurrensen om skogsbiomassa diskuterades med experter i ämnet), en teoretisk diskussion om indirekta effekter och biomasse-potentialer, samt två fallstudier i vilka de teroetiska resonemangen appliceras. Traditionella utvärderingar av produkters miljöbelastning inkluderar inte begränsning av tillgång på råvara eller konkurrens om densamma, vilket, bland annat för produktionen av bioetanol har befunnits ha stor betydelse. Samma sak gäller även för andra produkter från skogsbiomassa. Den huvudsakliga slutsatsen av studien är att alternativa råvaror för produkter som konkurrerar om skogsråvaran måste inkluderas när miljöbelastningen av en skogsråvarubaserad produkt analyseras. Detta är mycket komplext eftersom indirekta effekter är svåra att förutse och beror på många faktorer, som exempelvis marknadslägen, styrmedel och politiska mål. Icke desto mindre är frågan viktig för att utvecklingen av biobaserade råvaror ska bidra till en så minskad miljöbelastning som möjligt jämfört med de fossilbaserade motsvarigheterna. ; Forest biomass is used for many products including paper based products, sawn wood products and solid fuels. The production of forest derived liquid transportation fuels is currently limited but predicted to increase. Biomass is a renewable resource and therefore of high interest for applications such as new innovative materials, liquid and gaseous fuels. The production of various biofuels for transportation is forecast to increase and Sweden has a goal of a fossil-independent transportation system by 2030. Other, non-material, uses of forest biomass include the so called eco system services biodiversity, fishing, hunting, recreation, berry picking etc. which are also competing for forest biomass. There is currently a net growth of forest in Sweden, which theoretically could allow for an increased use of this resource. However, the amount of forest biomass is not unlimited and its harvest should not exceed its growth. Therefore, forest biomass should be considered as a limited resource and its use should aim to maximize the environmental benefit compared to the use of fossil resources. For this reason, environmental impact evaluations of forest biomass based products should include alternative sources for products competing with this resource. The pre-study reported herein included: a review of Swedish forestry and the relationships between different types of forest biomass and fuels; a workshop in which the competition for forest biomass was discussed with experts in the area; a theoretical reasoning around indirect effects and biomass potentials; and two case studies in which the theoretical reasoning is applied. Traditional assessments of environmental impacts of products and processes do not include the aspect of resource scarcity or competition for raw materials. In the case of bioethanol this has been shown to affect the results of such evaluation andthe same thing applies also to other forest biomass based fuels. The main conclusion of the study is that alternative sources for products competing with forest biomass should be taken into account when assessing the environmental impacts of forest biomass derived products. This is, however, complex as indirect effects are difficult to predict and depend on numerous factors including market situations, financial instruments, legislation and policies etc. Nevertheless, the question is important for the development of biobased substitutes for fossil derived products .
Stricter commitments for GHG emissions in the post-Kyoto period will contribute to reduced emissions of air pollutants in the Nordic countries, avoided costs for end-of-pipe abatement to reach a specific target, and benefits for ecosystems and human health. However, reductions in emissions in the Nordic countries are smaller than in other regions since use of the flexible mechanisms implies a shift in GHG abatement, and co-benefits, to other regions – in particular Russia and Eastern Europe. On the other hand, the Nordic countries benefit from reductions in emissions in other regions. Expanding the number of sectors included in the emission trading scheme will imply increased air pollutant emissions and less benefits to ecosystems. If EU and Norway are involved in a climate policy cooperation not involving other regions, this will imply that more greenhouse gas emission reductions are undertaken in the Nordic countries with subsequent reductions in air pollutant emissions. This would benefit ecosystems in southern Scandinavia, but acidification would increase in the north because of increased emissions in Russia. For human exposure to PM2.5, road transport is particularly important and this source is less influenced by the options for climate policies. Therefore, as long as post-Kyoto climate policies are unknown, there are large uncertainties about the required costs to achieve different level of air pollutant emissions, ecosystem protection and human exposure in 2020. A large part of this uncertainty comes from the degree of Russian and Eastern Europe climate policy cooperation.
For 20 years, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency together with the MISTRA research foundation have funded five air pollution research programmes with focus on producing knowledge that supports policy and emission control in national and international arenas. The research has been multidisciplinary and has included research on emissions, atmospheric transport and transformation processes, human health effects, ecosystem effects, and emission control strategies. Research has also been conducted on the interaction between air pollution and climate change. Over these years, the link between the research programmes and the development of emission control strategies and policies in Sweden, the EU, and the UNECE Air Convention has been of high importance. This report presents how the research programmes have created societal benefits through support for the development of air pollution policies and emission control measures. The report also identifies future research needs to ensure continued progress towards even better air quality for future generations.
