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Andrén, N. Nordic Integration and Cooperation — Illusion and Reality. Cooperation and Conflict, XIX, 1984, 251-262. In 1967 the author contributed an article to this journal on Nordic Integration. The aim was twofold: on the one hand to provide a definition broad enough to encompass a variety of integration forces or tendencies and exact enough to permit sufficient precision in the analysis, and on the other hand to measure the character of the growing Nordic cooperation. In the present paper, 'Nordic integration' is 'revisited', as an illusion, a reality and, perhaps, as a model. The integrative forces are still restricted by national interests and wider, extra-Nordic commitments, severally or collectively. New movements, most recently the transnational cravings for non-nuclear zones and the peace movements, seem unlikely to add a new security dimension to Nordic integration. European development is of decisive importance for the Nordic system, for which closer security cooperation at present is neither desired nor obtain able but cannot be excluded in all future scenarios. Meanwhile the Nordic system is attracting some marginal but increasing attention in the search for alternative models for European security.

Andrén, N. Sweden's Defence Doctrines and Changing Threat Perceptions. Coop eration and Conflict, XVII, 1982, 29-39. Sweden has for a long time consistently adhered to defence doctrines emphasizing the need for a large, conventional anti-invasion defence in which army and air strength is neatly balanced and supplemented with a relatively weaker navy. Nuclear arms have been rejected and the nuclear threat, in the official defence doctrines, attributed only little probability. The fact that a stranded, obsolete, Soviet submarine trespassing on Swedish territorial waters is likely to have carried nuclear arms has released strong emotions but hardly changed this evaluation. Recent experiences have indicated the existence of a very different threat, based on the vulnerability of the modern industrial society, against not only various forms of destruction but also major international disturbances without direct bearing on the Swedish society. Much in the contemporary debate deals with these issues, and much in the political conflict concerns different evaluations of security and defence, of old threats and new threats.

Andrén, N. Futures Studies and National Security: The Swedish Experience. Cooperation and Conflict, XVI, 1981, 39-56. The focus of this paper is both on the development and structure of Swedish defence- oriented studies concerning the future development of the international system and on some of the major problems related to these studies. The studies form part of a long-range planning system and take place in an organization consisting of three major groups of actors, politicians, administrators or bureaucrats, and researchers. General principles are laid down by the Ministry of Defence (or in the final instance, by Government and Parliament). Planning requirements for the studies are to a large extent formulated in accordance with the experiences and traditions of the authorities in charge of national defence. Research activities are conducted by or in close contact with The National Defence Research Institute (Försvarets Forskningsanstalt, FOA). Some general problems of futures studies are discussed as a background. In the studies related to defence planning, two major approaches may be distinguished. The one is to design, on the basis of appropriate research, general long-range projections, expressed as 'alternative futures'. The other is to produce special defence scenarios. These scenarios play an important part in assessing the character and consequences of possible future threats against Sweden and may hence serve as yardsticks for measuring - by simulation and other devices- alternative future defence structures. Finally, the futures studies are assessed as a scholarly activity in a setting marked not only by more or less well-defined and articulated political goals and biases, but also by administrative necessities and institutional preferences.

Andrén, N. Prospects for the Nordic Security Pattern. Cooperation and Conflict, XIII, 1978, 181-192. The Nordic countries responded to the Cold War division of Europe in different ways. The total effect of the different national choices of position is a pattern which, it is be lieved, has tended to reduce acute tensions between the major blocs on their 'Northern flank', in spite of its increasing significance for both military seasons, viz. Soviet naval expansion and superpower nuclear strategy, and for economic reasons, the new look on sea resources in general and oil in particular. In the present paper the global, European and Nordic conditions for the Nordic security pattern, often referred to as the 'Nordic Balance', and possible effects of future changes are discussed.