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Este trabajo estudia las diferencias entre los multiplicadores fiscales a lo largo del ciclo de crédito en las economías de la OCDE. Se obtienen respuestas al impulso mediante un modelo estado dependiente con proyecciones directas, en el que los multiplicadores dependen del estado de los mercados de crédito. La identificación de los efectos de las medidas de estímulo y de austeridad fiscal se logra mediante la distinción entre los incrementos y las disminuciones no anticipados en el gasto público. Los resultados empíricos destacan la importancia del entorno financiero. Las políticas fiscales expansivas están asociadas con grandes multiplicadores durante los episodios de crisis crediticias y, además, un aumento del gasto también fomenta el crecimiento económico en los períodos de expansiones rápidas de crédito, aunque en menor medida. Por el contrario, el efecto de las políticas fiscales contractivas en la producción no es nunca estadísticamente distinto de cero. Los multiplicadores para cada componente del PIB y la tasa de desempleo implican que las reducciones en el gasto público deben ayudar a restringir la economía durante los auges de crédito excesivos, mientras que el aumento de los gastos en las recesiones financieras debería facilitar la reparación de los balances del sector privado con el fin de reactivar la confianza del mercado e impulsar la recuperación económica ; This paper studies the differences between fiscal multipliers in OECD economies across the credit cycle. Impulse responses are obtained using a state-dependent model with direct projections, in which multipliers depend on the state of credit markets. Identification of the effects of fiscal stimulus and austerity measures is achieved by distinguishing between unanticipated increases and decreases in government spending. The empirical results imply that the financial environment matters. Expansionary fiscal policies are associated with large multipliers during credit crunch episodes, and spending increases likewise foster economic growth in periods of rapid credit expansion, albeit to a lesser extent. In contrast, the output effect of contractionary fiscal policies is never statistically different from zero. Regime-specific multipliers of the individual components of GDP and the unemployment rate suggest that reductions in public expenditure should help constrain the economy during unsustainable credit booms, whereas spending increases in financial recessions should facilitate the repair of private sector balance sheets in order to revive market confidence and boost economic recovery

This paper investigates economic convergence in real income per capita between 27 European Union countries. We employ a non-linear latent factor framework to study transitional behavior among economies between 1970 and 2010. Our results offer important insights on the economic catch-up exhibited by the new EU members in light of the institutional changes and macroeconomic adjustment processes undertaken over the last 40 years. Our main findings suggest no overall real income per capita convergence in the EU, however, we identify subgroups that converge to different steady states using an iterative testing procedure. Regional linkages play a significant role in determining the formation of convergence clubs. The empirical evidence suggests a clear separation between the new and old EU member states in the long run.

Key factors in a balanced regional development for Serbia / Edita Kastratović. - S. 7-16 Human resources in Serbia : a basic postulate of economic development / Vladimir Marinković. - S. 17-44 Transnistria - an unrecognised country within Moldova / Mihály Borsi. - S. 45-50 Transnistria: a paradise for vested interests / Angela Munteanu and Igor Munteanu. - S. 51-66 Regulating employee representation in post-socialist supervisory boards / Arjan Vliegenhart. - S. 67-82 Are trade unions effective accounting actors? / Romana Careja. - S. 83-106 From the perspective of EU integration : trade union rights in Turkey / Banu Uçan. - S. 107-126 Status and prospects of the Bulgarian banking system in the conditions of a united European market / Ivaylo Mihaylov and Diana Velitchkova. - S. 127-134 Analysis of the first draft of the Moldovan Law on public-private partnerships / Wolfgang Tiede and Sabina Krispenz. - S. 135-155