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AbstractTobacco use is a global problem and the health consequences are far reaching. Systemic approaches are needed to help investigate policies to reduce the adverse health effects of tobacco use. This paper provides an overview of the system dynamics model that has been developed to assist the Ministry of Health to evaluate the dynamic consequences of tobacco control policies in New Zealand. The model consists of six sectors: population; smoking prevalences; tobacco consumption; second hand smoke; relative risks and tobacco attributable deaths. The model is simulated for 20–30 years into the future. The simulation package used is'iThink', and a user interface is presented for policy analysis. A range of illustrative scenarios are provided, including: business as usual; fiscal strategies involving less affordable cigarettes; harm minimization strategies involving either less addictive cigarettes or less toxic cigarettes and combinations of the above policies. The main output variables (performance measures) include current smoking prevalence, tobacco consumption and tobacco attributable mortality. Finally some areas for future model enhancement are identified. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

AbstractThis paper provides an introduction to the special issue on environmental and resource systems. The quantity and quality of previous system dynamics publications related to environmental and resource systems are briefly outlined. The background to the special issue is provided, together with a summary and comparison of the five papers and models in the issue. The papers relate to forestry in Indonesia, irrigated lands in Spain, renewable resource management in Norway, wildlife management in USA and blue‐green algae bloom in the coastal waters of Australia. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

AbstractWhile the tools currently used for qualitative system dynamics (Qual SD) modelling are very powerful in providing a holistic perspective and a framework for understanding complexity and change, they are often not explicitly designed to build and implement long‐term solutions based on that understanding. The Theory of Constraints (TOC) thinking processes and tools focus on these important aspects of the decision‐making process. We provide a six‐stage framework combining selected tools from TOC's thinking process and Qual SD's modelling process to provide a more rigorous systems thinking change process. We illustrate the methods and component tools via a case study on a complex societal issue (sale of alcohol in New Zealand supermarkets) developed for teaching purposes. We demonstrate the value of the framework, highlighting complementarities between tools, and show how specific insights emerged using each of the tools, with more insights resulting from using Qual SD and TOC collectively than separately. © 2024 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

AbstractThis paper summarises a system dynamics pilot study analysing the relationship of New Zealand Customs Service (NZCS) outputs to desired government outcomes, in relation to the collection of tobacco excise duties and cigarette smoking in New Zealand. The study was done to demonstrate the utility of system dynamics in answering some questions of a type common in the New Zealand public sector during policy development and review. Group model‐building workshops addressed the organising question: "How does price influence the use and consequences of tobacco in New Zealand?" A prototype system dynamics simulation model using the ithink dynamic simulation software was developed, consisting of seven sectors: NZCS air and marine sector; duty‐paid cigarette imports; duty‐free cigarettes; New Zealand tobacco manufacturing sector; NZCS duty collection (from air passengers); New Zealand tobacco products market; and a health sector. The model simulates values of the model variables on an annual basis from 2000 to 2010. Policy experiments with the model include examining the effects of changes in excise duties. The model can be further developed to examine tobacco‐related public policy issues in New Zealand and complement modelling done in other countries. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

AbstractThis article demonstrates how to construct a policy argument from the perspective of critical thinking and how to convert this into a causal loop diagram utilising the tools of systems thinking and system dynamics. It is based on the authors' recent work on the Demonstrating Values project with the New Zealand Customs Service, which involved integrating critical thinking and systems thinking into the policy development process. Critical thinking is used in this context to reconstruct a rationale for a given policy. This helped us to isolate key concepts and desired outcomes. The concepts were then used to construct a conceptual diagram. Based on this, the key concepts were operationalised to form a causal loop diagram including the main variables of interest in the system. The causal loop diagram can then be used as the basis for further policy interventions and analysis. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Purpose
Aligning the project management methodology (PMM) to a particular project is considered to be essential for project success. Many outsourced software projects fail to deliver on time, budget or do not give value to the client due to inappropriate choice of a PMM. Despite the increasing range of available choices, project managers frequently fail to seriously consider their alternatives. They tend to narrowly tailor project categorization systems and categorization criterion is often not logically linked with project objectives. The purpose of this paper is to develop and test a contingency fit model comparing the differences between critical success factors (CSFs) for outsourced software development projects in the current context of traditional plan-based and agile methodologies.


Design/methodology/approach
A theoretical model and 54 hypotheses were developed from a literature review. An online Qualtrics survey was used to collect data to test the proposed model. The survey was administered to a large sample of senior software project managers and practitioners who were involved in international outsourced software development projects across the globe with 984 valid responses.


Findings
Results indicate that various CSFs differ significantly across agile and traditional plan-based methodologies, and in different ways for various project success measures.


Research limitations/implications
This study is cross-sectional in nature and data for all variables were obtained from the same sources, meaning that common method bias remains a potential threat. Further refinement of the instrument using different sources of data for variables and future replication using longitudinal approach is highly recommended.


Practical implications
Practical implications of these results suggest project managers should tailor PMMs according to various organizational, team, customer and project factors to reduce project failure rates.


Originality/value
Unlike previous studies this paper develops and empirically validates a contingency fit model comparing the differences between CSFs for outsourced software development projects in the context of PMMs.

Purpose– While the choices available for project management methodologies have increased significantly, questions remain on whether project managers fully consider their alternatives. When project categorization systems and criteria are not logically matched with project objectives, characteristics and environment, this may provide the key reason for why many software projects are reported to fail to deliver on time, budget or do not give value to the client. The purpose of this paper is to identify and categorize critical success factors (CSFs) and develop a contingency fit model contrasting perspectives of traditional plan-based and agile methodologies.Design/methodology/approach– By systematically reviewing the previous literature, a total of 37 CSFs for software development projects are identified from 148 articles, and then categorized into three major CSFs: organizational, team and customer factors. A contingency fit model augments this by highlighting the necessity to match project characteristics and project management methodology to these CSFs.Findings– Within the three major categories of CSFs, individual factors are ranked based on how frequently they have been cited in previous studies, overall as well as across the two main project management methodologies (traditional, agile). Differences in these rankings as well as mixed empirical support suggest that previous research may not have adequately theorized when particular CSFs will affect project success and lend support for the hypothesized contingency model between CSFs, project characteristics and project success criteria.Research limitations/implications– This research is conceptual and meta-analytic in its focus. A crucial task for future research should be to test the contingency fit model developed using empirical data. There is no broad consensus among researchers and practitioners in categorizing CSFs for software development projects. However, through an extensive search and analysis of the literature on CSFs for software development projects, the research provides greater clarity on the categories of CSFs and how their direct, indirect and moderated effects on project success can be modelled.Practical implications– This study proposes a contingency fit model and contributes towards developing a theory for assessing the role of CSFs for project success. While future empirical testing of this conceptual model is essential, it provides an initial step for guiding quantitative data collection, specifies detailed empirical analysis for comparative studies, and is likely to improve clarity in debate. Since previous studies have not rigorously assessed the impact of fit between project characteristics, project environment and project management methodology on project success, additional empirically robust studies will help to clarify contradictory findings that have limited theory development for CSFs of software development projects to date.Originality/value– Previous research for software development projects has frequently not fully incorporated contingency as moderation or contingency as fit (traditional vs agile). This research sets out to develop fully a contingency fit perspective on software development project success, through contrasting traditional plan-driven and agile methodologies. To do this, the paper systematically identifies and ranks 37 CSFs for software projects from 148 journal publications and holistically categorizes them as organizational, team, customer and project factors.

Mental model change and mental model alignment are reported outcomes of group model building. Several explanations have been proposed for these changes. This paper explores the experiences of participants in group model building workshops where delayed evaluations suggested that lasting mental model change has occurred. Semi‐structured interviews were used to explore how participants believed that the workshops changed their thinking. The results are compared with proposed mechanisms for mental model change: operator logic, system archetypes, modelling as persuasion, and boundary objects. Although individuals typically possess incomplete insight into their own learning, understanding participants' recollections helps practitioners to better communicate with clients and potential clients. Interview results support the boundary object mechanism as most consistent with participants' own recollections. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

AbstractGroup model building literature reports that participation causes mental model refinement and alignment, but no previous study appears to have examined whether these changes are enduring. This paper reports on a case study involving four groups using group model building tools that were evaluated immediately before, immediately after, and 12 months following a 3‐hour workshop. Each workshop used qualitative group model building to plan strategy implementation initiatives in a government department. A change of circumstances (merger and restructure) meant that the workshop conclusions were not implemented, providing a research opportunity to measure the enduring effects of group model building workshops. Statistical comparison of written responses suggests that participants' views on the workshop topic changed and became more alike through the workshop process, and that these changes were enduring even in the relative absence of reinforcing activities. Copyright © 2014 System Dynamics Society

Objectives. We estimated the long-term effects of smoking cessation interventions to inform government decision-making regarding investment in tobacco control.

AbstractSince the mid‐1990s, the NZ Army has experienced difficulty retaining personnel in the electronic technicians trade. A systems thinking study, using the qualitative system dynamics approach, was undertaken to establish a better understanding of the causal factors of poor retention and recruitment, their interconnections and complex relationships and to identify leverage points to develop a turn‐around strategy. Separate group model building workshops were held with the apprentices, tradesmen, management and external stakeholders. Causal loop diagrams (CLDs) were developed for each stakeholder group and the three internal stakeholder group CLDs were merged for further analysis. The combined internal stakeholders' CLD and external stakeholders' CLD were used as the basis for the analysis of leverage points within the system, and to facilitate the development of action plans for the trade group. The paper outlines this systems thinking study and the subsequent implementation of the recommendations. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.