La prévision dans le contexte politique : l'opinion de l'homme politique
In: Revue française d'administration publique, Volume 9, Issue 1, p. 47-61
Forecasting and politics. The Politician's Opinion. The position of politicians varies as regards the forecasting process according to administrative structures and political traditions. On the basis of his experience as administrator and politician in Denmark, the author believes that a study of the relations between forecasting and planning makes it possible to throw some light on the specificity of political issues. Forecasting is defined as study and evaluation of future developments in a given field. Planning is a comparison between various options of development and the choice of an optimum. The typical function of the politician is to decide on the avenues to be explored and the option to be chosen. Yet it is quite debatable where to draw a line between targets and means. The politician's role is not limited to the choice of the first while leaving it to the administrator to look after the second. Finally, the politician's attitude is ambivalent : it is not possible to rely completely on forecasting and planning for solving problems, but it is necessary to strive for an as transparent as possible presentation of public debate.