stract In this paper, we analyze the influence of various macroeconomic shocks caused by anti-Russian sanctions and a sharp decrease in the hydrocarbon prices in the middle of the last decade. We estimate the total loss in the economy and identify the shocks that provoked the decline in GDP and the increase in inflation from 2014 to 2018 using the DSGE approach and the obtained historical decompositions. According to the calculations, the inflation growth from 2014 to 2015 can be interpreted as the sum of the adverse effects of the change in household preferences, and the shock in oil prices. The observed GDP decline from the second quarter of 2014 to the third quarter of 2015 is explained by the synergistic effect of monetary policy shocks and the sharp drop in oil prices. According to our calculations, the total loss in the economy due to the described shocks in real terms is equal to 6.4 trillion rubles in 2011 prices.
In: In: Zaporozhets A. (eds) Systems, Decision and Control in Energy III. Studies in Systems, Decision and Control, vol 399, p. 107-119, 2022. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-87675-3_6
This paper is an attempt to reassess the role of the Locarno Treaties (1925) in terms of the Versailles-Washington system of international relations evolution. The authors argue that the Locarno Treaties represent one of the turning points in the development of the international order after World War I. The Treaties were not a mere add-on to the Versailles system, in fact, they had replaced it and became the main legal instrument for maintaining security in the region. In order to test this hypothesis and provide a better understanding of how the contemporaries themselves assessed these agreements, the authors examine them within a broader context of debates on the European security issues, which took place in the 1920s.The views of the British elites on this matter are of particular interest here, since it was the British diplomacy that was at the origin of the Locarno Conference in 1925. The paper draws on a wide range of recently declassified archival documents, as well as on the materials of the debates in the House of Commons and publications in the leading British newspapers. It allows the authors to trace the evolution of approaches by the main British political parties to security issues in Europe. A systematic comparison of views of the Conservative and the Labour party representatives on the Geneva Protocol and the Rhineland Pact shows that by mid-1920s the British political elites advocated for an in-depth transformation of the Versailles order, particularly, through the development of an effective mechanism for maintaining international security. On that basis a broad political consensus had arisen, which led to the formation of a new two-party structure (Tory-Labour) after World War I.The study begins with an overview of the political situation in Europe and in Great Britain in the early 1920s. Then, it examines the Labour Party's draft of the Disarmament Protocol, as well as the principal causes of its failure. Finally, the paper covers the preparatory process for and the progress of the Locarno negotiations. Special attention is paid to the debates in the House of Commons on the conference, particularly, on its outcome document - the Rhineland Pact.
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a substantial increase in the prevalence of working from home among white-collar occupations. This can have important implications for the future of the workplace and quality of life. We discuss an additional implication, which we label reverse brain drain: the possibility that white-collar migrant workers return to live in their countries of origin while continuing to work for employers in their countries of destination. We estimate the potential size of this reverse flow using data from the European Labor Force Survey. Our estimates suggest that the UK, France, Switzerland and Germany each have around half a million skilled migrants who could perform their jobs from their home countries. Most of them originate from the other EU member states: both old and new. We discuss the potential economic, social and political implications of such reverse brain drain.
The article's purpose is to study the formation and the development of the legal regulation of foreign investment in the Russian Federation. During the research, the authors analyzed the legal mechanisms for creating an enabling environment for attracting foreign investments in Russia. The authors concluded that it is necessary to systematize Russian legislation in the field of foreign investments and to bring Russian legislation into line with the norms of international law. They also came to the conclusion that it is necessary to develop legal regulation of foreign investments within the framework of the integration space of the Eurasian Economic Union. ; peer-reviewed
