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Disasters are inherently hard to predict. Pandemics, like earthquakes, wildfires, financial crises. and wars, are not normally distributed; there is no cycle of history to help us anticipate the next catastrophe. But when disaster strikes, we ought to be better prepared than the Romans were when Vesuvius erupted, or medieval Italians when the Black Death struck. We have science on our side, after all. Yet in 2020 the responses of many developed countries, including the United States, to a new virus from China were badly bungled. Why? Why did only a few Asian countries learn the right lessons from SARS and MERS? While populist leaders certainly performed poorly in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, Niall Ferguson argues that more profound pathologies were at work--pathologies already visible in our responses to earlier disasters. In books going back nearly twenty years, including Colossus, The Great Degeneration, and The Square and the Tower, Ferguson has studied the foibles of modern America, from imperial hubris to bureaucratic sclerosis and online fragmentation. Drawing from multiple disciplines, including economics, cliodynamics, and network science, Doom offers not just a history but a general theory of disasters, showing why our ever more bureaucratic and complex systems are getting worse at handling them. Doom is the lesson of history that this country--indeed the West as a whole--urgently needs to learn, if we want to handle the next crisis better, and to avoid the ultimate doom of irreversible decline

Part I: Introduction: Networks and hierarchies ; The mystery of the Illuminati ; Our networked age ; Networks, networks everywhere ; Why hierarchies? ; From seven bridges to six degrees ; Weak ties and viral ideas ; Varieties of network ; When networks meet ; Seven insights ; The Illuminati illuminated -- Part II: Emperors and explorers. A brief history of hierarchy ; The First Networked Age ; The art of the Renaissance deal ; Discoverers ; Pizarro and the Inca ; When Gutenberg met Luther -- Part III: Letters and lodges. The economic consequences of the Reformation ; Trading ideas ; Networks of Enlightenment ; Networks of revolution -- Part IV: The restoration of hierarchy. The red and the black ; From crowd to tyranny ; Order restored ; The house of Saxe-Coburg-Gotha ; The house of Rothschild ; Industrial networks ; From pentarchy to hegemony -- Part V: Knights of the Round Table. An imperial life ; Empire ; Taiping ; 'The Chinese must go' ; The Union of South Africa ; Apostles ; Armageddon -- Part VI: Plagues and pipers. Greenmantle ; The plague ; The leader principle ; The fall of the golden international ; The ring of five ; Brief encounter ; Ella in reform school -- Part VII: Own the jungle. The long peace ; The general ; The crisis of complexity ; Henry Kissinger's network of power ; Into the valley ; The fall of the Soviet Empire ; The triumph of Davos Man ; Breaking the Bank of England -- Part VIII: The Library of Babel. 9/11/2001 ; 9/15/2008 ; The administrative state ; Web 2.0 ; Coming apart ; Tweeting the revolution ; 11/9/2016 -- Part IX: Conclusion: facing Cyberia. Metropolis ; Network outage ; FANG, BAT and EU ; The square and the tower redux -- Afterword: The original square and tower.

Most history is hierarchical: it's about popes, presidents, and prime ministers. But what if that's simply because they create the historical archives? What if we are missing equally powerful but less visible networks - leaving them to the conspiracy theorists, with their dreams of all-powerful Illuminati? The twenty-first century has been hailed as the Networked Age. But in The Square and the Tower Niall Ferguson argues that social networks are nothing new. From the printers and preachers who made the Reformation to the freemasons who led the American Revolution, it was the networkers who disrupted the old order of popes and kings. Far from being novel, our era is the Second Networked Age, with the computer in the role of the printing press. Once we understand this, both the past, and the future, start to look very different indeed.

A history of Western civilization's rise to global dominance offers insight into the development of such concepts as competition, modern medicine, and the work ethic, arguing that Western dominance is being lost to cultures who are more productively utilizing Western techniques

"This paper asks whether developing countries can reap credibility gains from submitting policy to a strict monetary rule. Following earlier work, we look at the gold standard era (1880-1914) as a "natural experiment" to test whether adoption of a rule-based monetary framework such as the gold standard increased policy credibility. On the basis of the largest possible dataset covering almost sixty independent and colonial borrowers in the London market, we challenge the traditional view that gold standard adherence worked as a credible commitment mechanism that was rewarded by financial markets with lower borrowing costs. We demonstrate that in the poor periphery -- where policy credibility is a particularly acute problem -- the market looked behind "the thin film of gold". Our results point to a dichotomy: whereas country risk premia fell after gold adoption in developed countries, there were no credibility gains in the volatile economic and political environments of developing countries. History shows that monetary policy rules are no short-cut to credibility in situations where vulnerability to economic and political shocks, not time-inconsistency, are overarching concerns for investors"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site