Under what conditions do nonviolent demonstrations escalate to violence? I answer this question using a novel theory of individual impatience in protests that begin peacefully. Rather than considering protest groups as unitary actors, I present a theory of collective action in which a group's decision over whether or not to engage in anti-government violence is the product of individual preferences. Individuals involved in a nonviolent demonstration use the immediacy of their needs and the sustainability of collective action to decide whether or not to initiate violence against the state. Specifically, I hypothesize that the likelihood of violent escalation will increase when the food price increases and unemployment rate is high or when the event is spontaneous. Analysis of a Bayesian multilevel model of 2,405 nonviolent demonstrations from 1991 to 2017 in Africa and Latin America supports my expectations.
Under what conditions do nonviolent demonstrations escalate to violence? I answer this question using a novel theory of individual impatience in protests that begin peacefully. Rather than considering protest groups as unitary actors, I present a theory of collective action in which a group's decision over whether or not to engage in anti-government violence is the product of individual preferences. Individuals involved in a nonviolent demonstration use the immediacy of their needs and the sustainability of collective action to decide whether or not to initiate violence against the state. Specifically, I hypothesize that the likelihood of violent escalation will increase when the food price increases and unemployment rate is high or when the event is spontaneous. Analysis of a Bayesian multilevel model of 2,405 nonviolent demonstrations from 1991 to 2017 in Africa and Latin America supports my expectations.
Die Weltbank fördert seit Mitte der 1970er Jahre unter der Bezeichnung "Training and Visit" (T&V) mit Nachdruck ein Programm landwirtschaftlicher Beratung. Beispiele für sehr gegensätzliche Urteile über T&V finden sich in früheren Nummern dieser Zeitschrift. 1991 sind in einer vergleichenden Studie 24 T&V-Projekte überprüft worden. Abweichend vom ursprünglich recht standardisierten Ansatz zeigt sich, daß fertige Rezepte nichts erbracht haben, so daß zahllose Varianten entwickelt worden sind, gekennzeichnet durch auf den Einzelfall abgestimmtes internes Management, organisatorische Änderungen sowie Einpassung in die äußeren Gegebenheiten, um so dauerhafte Existenz und erfolgreiche Arbeit der T&V-Einrichtungen auch nach Auslaufen der Weltbankfinanzierung sicherzustellen. T&V hat hier wichtige aber noch nicht ausreichende Ansätze. Beachtung komplexer Interaktionsmuster zwischen allen Beteiligten, in und außerhalb der Einrichtungen, entscheiden letztlich ob diese auf Dauer überleben. (APAF-Glz)
AbstractThe building or reform of agricultural extension institutions has received considerable attention over the past 15 years, promoted principally by the World Bank and its training and visit (T&V) approach. Many of these institutional development projects have now been completed, allowing cross‐case analysis of the experiences and outcomes. Given the relatively similar objectives and institutional improvement strategies adopted, and the dissimilarities in the eventual performance and institutional vitality of the target organizations, these experiences provide a useful set of cases in which to examine the dynamics of institutions performance and sustainability. This article examines 24 completed extension development projects in the light of an institutional sustainability framework that defines sustainability as the ability of an institution to produce outputs that are sufficiently in demand for enough inputs to be supplied to continue production at a steady or growing rate. Findings from the application of the framework highlight the importance of internal and external stakeholder support, the importance of early success in generating support, the need for both organizational action and learning in varying degrees depending on the situation, and the need to have a coherent strategy that matches the institution's internal capabilities and external environment.
Although only 23 people on average have been killed per year by terrorist attacks in the United States since 2001, American citizens and politicians consistently rank terrorism as a top security threat, leading to costly wars abroad and the repression of civil liberties at home. To what extent can education about terrorism alter perceptions of the threat? Much existing scholarship—and consistent polling over the past two decades—suggests that it cannot, but we disagree. Evidence gathered from an extensive series of experimental and observational surveys involving students in 31 terrorism and non-terrorism related courses at 12 universities—including massive open online courses (MOOC) and online surveys—reveals that the more individuals learn about terrorism, the smaller they perceive the threat to be to themselves and to the U.S. In the fight against terrorism and the fear it inspires, knowing really is half the battle.
Although only 23 people on average have been killed per year by terrorist attacks in the United States since 2001, American citizens and politicians consistently rank terrorism as a top security threat, leading to costly wars abroad and the repression of civil liberties at home. To what extent can education about terrorism alter perceptions of the threat? Much existing scholarship—and consistent polling over the past two decades—suggests that it cannot, but we disagree. Evidence gathered from an extensive series of experimental and observational surveys involving students in 31 terrorism and non-terrorism related courses at 12 universities—including massive open online courses (MOOC) and online surveys—reveals that the more individuals learn about terrorism, the smaller they perceive the threat to be to themselves and to the U.S. In the fight against terrorism and the fear it inspires, knowing really is half the battle.
AbstractMuch of the peace agreement durability literature assumes that stronger peace agreements are more likely to survive the trials of the post-conflict environment. This work does an excellent job identifying which provisions indicate that agreements are more likely to endure. However, there is no widely accepted way to directly measure the strength of agreements, and existing measures suffer from a lack of nuance or reliance on subjective weighting. We use a Bayesian item response theory model to develop a principled measure of the latent strength of peace agreements in civil conflicts from 1975 to 2005. We illustrate the measure's utility by exploring how various international factors such as sanctions and mediation contribute to the strength or weakness of agreements.
Frontmatter -- CONTENTS -- ESSAYS -- Harris beyond Hermes -- The Courier de l'Europe, the Gordon Riots and Trials, and the Changing Face of Anglo-French Relations -- Lapdogs/Lenses: Microscopy, Narrative, and The History of Pompey the Little -- Deus sive Natura: The Monistic Link of Spinoza with China -- Murphy and Johnson: Prolegomenon to a New Edition -- SPECIAL FEATURE. The Achievements of John Dennis -- Introduction to Special Feature -- "A Separate Ministry": Dennis, Drury Lane, and Opposition Politics -- "Naked Majesty": The Occasional Sublime and Miltonic Whig History of John Dennis, Poet -- Anatomy of a Pan: John Dennis's Annotated Copy of Blackmore's Prince Arthur -- My Enemy's Enemy: Dennis, Pope, and Edmund Curll -- Ovid Made English: Dennis's Translation of The Passion of Byblis -- BOOK REVIEWS -- Catherine Ingrassia, ed., The Cambridge Companion to Women's Writing in Britain, 1660–1789 -- Stephen Gaukroger, The Natural and the Human: Science and the Shaping of Modernity 1739–1841 -- Malcolm Jack, To the Fairest Cape: European Encounters in the Cape of Good Hope -- Nan Goodman, The Puritan Cosmopolis: The Law of Nations and the Early American Imagination -- Christopher J. Berry, The Idea of Commercial Society in the Scottish Enlightenment -- Stewart Pollens, Stradivari -- Paul Prescott, Reviewing Shakespeare: Journalism and Performance from the Eighteenth Century to the Present -- Jonathan I. Israel, Democratic Enlightenment: Philosophy, Revolution, and Human Rights, 1750–1790 -- Andrew Janiak and Eric Schliesser, eds., Interpreting Newton: Critical Essays -- Geordan Hammond, John Wesley in America: Restoring Primitive Christianity -- Geordan Hammond and David Ceri Jones, eds., George Whitefield: Life, Context, and Legacy -- Felix Waldmann, ed., Further Letters of David Hume -- Henry Hitchings, The World in Thirty-Eight Chapters, or, Dr Johnson's Guide to Life -- Ian Woodfield, Performing Operas for Mozart: Impresarios, Singers and Troupes -- Stephen Rumph, Mozart and Enlightenment Semiotics -- Susan Carlile, Charlotte Lennox: An Independent Mind -- Antoine Quatremère de Quincy, Letters to Miranda and Canova on the Abduction of Antiquities from Rome and Athens, introduction by Dominique Poulot, translation by Chris Miller and David Gilks -- Christine Alexander and Margaret Smith, eds., The Oxford Companion to the Brontës, Anniversary Edition -- About the Contributors
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